Adani Green Energy Limited

Utilities — Utilities - Renewable · NSE

₹1,302.00−₹5.10 (−0.39%)

DalalBaazaar Score

54 / 100

🟡 Moderate

Verdict

CAUTION

Risk

Very High

Driven by high debt relative to equity, short-term liabilities exceed short-term assets, negative free cash flow.

In simple words: The business is earning a fairly low return on the money invested in it, with both sales and profits growing well. Debt is the main factor to watch.

Decision support, not a buy or sell call.

As of 18 Oct 2026, 7:49 pm

Understanding the Business

Company site ↗

The 60-second version of Adani Green Energy Limited — what it does, how it earns, and who it competes with, before any of the numbers below.

What does this company do?

Adani Green Energy Limited generates and supplies renewable energy to central and state government entities and government backed corporations in India.

IndustryUtilities - Renewable

SectorUtilities

Employees976

Annual revenue₹12,326 Cr

How does it make money?

Turns over ₹12,326 Cr a year. Of every ₹100 of sales, about ₹13 reaches shareholders as profit, with ₹77 left at the operating level before interest, tax and depreciation. Each of its 976 employees supports ₹12.63 Cr of revenue a year, the signature of a capital- or asset-led business.

Revenue / employee₹12.63 Cr

Who are its competitors?

The closest listed comparisons in its industry are NTPC LTD, POWER GRID CORP. LTD., TATA POWER CO LTD. These are the companies its valuation and returns are measured against elsewhere in this report.

Compared side by side in Peers ↓

What is its competitive advantage?Little sign of one

Returns on capital of 6.3% are at or below what the capital likely costs. That is the financial pattern of a business competing largely on price, where advantage has to come from execution rather than position.

Peer median ROE13.7%

What is the outlook?

9 analysts covering the stock expect revenue to grow about 38.0% and earnings to grow about 70.6% in the year to 2028. These are estimates by people who follow the company, not a forecast for the wider industry.

Est. revenue growth+38.0%

Est. earnings growth+70.6%

Analysts9

What has been driving growth?

Growth has come mainly from selling more, rather than from keeping more of each sale. Over 3 years revenue moved +59% while net margin moved +7% relative to itself. What this cannot tell you is which products, customers or geographies did the work — that lives in the segment disclosures of the annual report.

Revenue effect+59%

Margin effect+7%

DalalBaazaar Score

54/ 100

Moderate

Weighted across six categories. Every point is explained below.

✗ Debt/Equity of 3.47x is high — earnings must service borrowings before shareholders see anything
✗ Current ratio of 0.57 — short-term liabilities exceed short-term assets
✗ Free cash flow is negative — growth is being funded by borrowing or fresh equity
✗ Interest cover of only 1.3x — little room if profits dip
✗ Debt has grown 23.2% a year — worth checking what it bought

Quality vs. Valuation

Company Quality

56/ 100

Average

How good the business is, ignoring the share price entirely.

Valuation

39/ 100

Expensive

What you are being asked to pay, ignoring how good the business is.

A reasonable business at a reasonable price — neither the quality nor the valuation stands out in either direction.

Historical Valuation

Current P/E

124.7x

3Y Median

165.4x

40 monthly readings · mean 195.0x · range 96.4x–352.7x

Sector Median

14.6x

median of 3 sector peers

🟢Current valuation is approximately 25% below its 3y median of 165.4x. Cheaper than its own history, which is worth a reason too: the market may be pricing in something the backward-looking numbers do not show.

⚠️Against its sector it trades 752% above the peer median of 14.6x.

vs. its own history

Cheap

165.4x median over 40 months · -25%

vs. sector peers

Expensive

14.6x median of 3 peers · +752%

vs. generic bands

Expensive

Above 35x

EV/EBITDA

33.3x

PEG

6.48

What's Good / What's Bad

🟢 What's Going Well2

Margins are improving
EBITDA margin is up from 64.9% to 76.5% over 3 years.
Consistently profitable
Profitable in every one of the last 4 reported years.

🔴 What Needs Attention1

Return on equity is falling
ROE has dropped from 13.3% to 8.3% — each rupee of shareholder capital earns less than it did.

Red Flags

6 items require attention · 5 high · 1 watch

🔴Debt has risen sharplyFinancial
Total debt is up 87% over 3 years, from ₹54,224 Cr to ₹1.01 L Cr.
🔴High leverageFinancial
Debt/Equity of 3.47x — earnings must service borrowings before shareholders see anything.
🔴Thin interest coverageFinancial
Operating profit covers interest only 1.3x — little room if earnings dip.
🔴Free cash flow negative for 3 yearsFinancial
The business has not covered its capital spending from operations for several years running, which has to be funded externally.
🔴Inventory building faster than salesFinancial
Inventory up 162% against revenue up 59% — stock may not be moving.
🟡Short-term liquidity is tightFinancial
Current ratio of 0.57 — near-term obligations exceed near-term assets.

Investment Thesis

🟢 Bull CaseWhat could make this work?

Margin expansion has further to run
EBITDA margin has risen from 64.9% to 76.5%. If that holds, profit compounds faster than sales and today's multiple looks cheaper in hindsight than it does now.
Priced below its own history
The stock trades 25% below its own median multiple. If the business performs as it has and simply re-rates back to normal, that gap is return on its own.
Earnings have proved durable
Profitable in every one of the last 4 reported years. Consistency lowers the risk that any single bad year is structural rather than cyclical.

🔴 Bear CaseWhat could go wrong?

The debt load needs earnings to hold up
Debt is 10.8x EBITDA. At that level a downturn in earnings turns a manageable balance sheet into a refinancing problem, and lenders get paid before shareholders.
A premium to the sector to defend
It trades 752% above the peer median. That premium needs a reason that persists, or it closes.
Returns on shareholder capital are falling
ROE has dropped from 13.3% to 8.3%. Each rupee of equity earns less than it did, so profit growth increasingly depends on raising more capital rather than on the existing base working harder.
Several serious flags at once
5 high-severity checks triggered. Individually each has an explanation; together they raise the chance that something structural is wrong rather than a one-off.

🟡 Key Things to WatchMeasurable tripwires, set against where this company stands today

1Revenue growth stays above 12% a year✓ 16.6% CAGR
Latest reported year was 16.6%. The bar is set below the established compounding rate, so ordinary variation does not trip it.
2EBITDA margin holds above 75%✓ 76.5%
Two points below today's level — enough room for noise, tight enough to catch real compression.
3Debt / EBITDA falls below 3x✗ 10.8x
Already stretched, so this is a reduction target rather than a level to hold. Around 3x is where lenders typically start attaching conditions.
4Free cash flow remains positive✗ -₹15,962 Cr
Profit that never becomes cash eventually stops being profit.
5Interest cover stays above 3x✗ 1.3x
How much operating profit can fall before interest stops being comfortably covered.

Investment Checklist

5 / 12 checks passed

✗ Strong return on equity (ROE ≥ 15%)
✗ Strong return on capital employed (ROCE ≥ 15%)
✓ Healthy net margin (≥ 10%)
✗ Generates positive free cash flow
✗ Manageable leverage (Debt/Equity < 1.0)
✗ Adequate short-term liquidity (Current Ratio ≥ 1.0)
✓ Revenue growing year-over-year
✓ Profit growing year-over-year
✗ Not trading at an extreme valuation (P/E < 40x)
✓ Not buying right at the 52-week high
✓ Analyst consensus isn't majority-sell
✗ Short-term technical trend isn't bearish

Price history

Quick Metrics

4 good · 2 neutral · 5 weak

Market Cap

₹2.14 L Cr

Large Cap

Large, widely-covered business — typically the steadiest of the bands

P/E (Trailing)

124.7x

Expensive

Expensive — verify against sector peers

P/B Ratio

11.12x

Rich

Steep premium to book — needs high, durable returns to justify

EPS (TTM)

₹10.44

Profitable

Profitable on a per-share basis

ROE

8.3%

Moderate

Moderate capital efficiency

ROCE

6.3%

Weak

Low return on total capital employed

Debt/Equity

3.47x

High

High leverage

Revenue Growth (YoY)

16.6%

Healthy

Healthy top-line growth

Profit Growth (YoY)

18.5%

Healthy

Profits growing at a healthy clip

Dividend Yield

None

No dividend yield reported — usually means no payout, but verify if one was recently initiated

Free Cash Flow

-₹15,962 Cr

Cash burning

Spending more cash than the operations bring in

More Metrics

P/E (Forward)

44.3x

Improving

Below the trailing multiple — the street expects earnings to grow into the price

Operating Margin

66.8%

Good

Healthy core-business profitability

Net Margin

13.1%

Good

Strong bottom-line conversion

Current Ratio

0.57

Tight

Tight short-term liquidity

Beta (vs Nifty)

1.08

Market-like

Moves roughly in line with the market

52W Range Position

62%

Mid-range

Technical Snapshot

SMA 20 / SMA 50

1289.4 / 1300.6

Bearish alignment (short < long)

Price vs SMA 200

Above

Long-term uptrend

RSI (14)

50.7

Neutral momentum

Financial Trend (4-Year)

Metric	FY23	FY24	FY25	FY26	3Y CAGR
Revenue	₹7,775 Cr	₹9,220 Cr	₹11,047 Cr	₹12,326 Cr	+16.6%
EBITDA	₹5,046 Cr	₹8,432 Cr	₹9,445 Cr	₹9,435 Cr	+23.2%
EBITDA Margin	64.9%	91.5%	85.5%	76.5%	—
PAT (Net Profit)	₹974 Cr	₹1,100 Cr	₹1,444 Cr	₹1,652 Cr	+19.3%
EPS	₹5.41	₹6.2	₹8.37	₹9.65	+21.3%
ROE	13.3%	10.3%	11.9%	8.3%	—
ROCE	6.9%	9.5%	7.5%	6.3%	—
Total Debt	₹54,224 Cr	₹64,858 Cr	₹79,447 Cr	₹1.01 L Cr	+23.2%
Free Cash Flow	₹3,889 Cr	-₹8,060 Cr	-₹15,819 Cr	-₹15,962 Cr	—

🟢 Revenue has grown at 16.6% a year over 3 years.

🟢 EBITDA has grown at 23.2% a year over 3 years.

🟢 EBITDA Margin has risen from 64.9% to 76.5% over 3 years (+11.6 pts).

🟢 PAT (Net Profit) has grown at 19.3% a year over 3 years.

🟢 EPS has grown at 21.3% a year over 3 years.

🔴 ROE has fallen from 13.3% to 8.3% over 3 years (-5.1 pts).

🟡 ROCE has held roughly flat at 6.3% over 3 years.

🔴 Total Debt has grown at 23.2% a year over 3 years.

🔴 Free Cash Flow has turned negative, from ₹3,889 Cr to -₹15,962 Cr.

Balance Sheet & Cash Flow — FY2026

Total Assets

₹1.44 L Cr

Total Liabilities

₹1.14 L Cr

Cash & Equivalents

₹1,735 Cr

Operating Cash Flow

₹10,135 Cr

Capex

-₹26,097 Cr

Shareholding (proxy)

Institutional Holding

11.1%

Insider Holding

82.3%

Corporate Actions

Next Earnings

21 Oct 2026

Analyst Consensus

Recommendations

9 Buy · 0 Hold · 1 Sell

Target Price (Mean)

₹1,558.1

+19.7% vs CMP

Target Range

₹980 – ₹1,800

Peer Comparison

Company	P/E	ROE
NTPC LTD	11.0x	13.7%
POWER GRID CORP. LTD.	14.6x	15.8%
TATA POWER CO LTD	29.3x	9.8%

Recent News

2 mixed4 general

Adani Green Energy Share Price Continues Rally, Soars Over 9%

NDTV Profit, 18 OctPrice move

🟡Mixed / dependsA price move, which is not by itself a change in the business. Worth finding the cause before reading it as either good or bad.

Adani Group stocks Q2 results 2026 date this week: Adani Green, Adani Energy, Adani Gas, Adani Power schedule, returns

Livemint, 18 OctResults

🟡Mixed / dependsA results event. The figures on this page update once the new statements reach the data feed, which usually lags the announcement.

Missed Adani Green Energy's Run? Here Is What Holders Saw

Simply Wall Street, 14 Oct

The Renewable Power Cash Flow Question: What the Operational Capacity Test Really Reveals

Kalkine India, 16 Oct

Adani group stocks under pressure; Enterprises, Green Energy tank up to 7%

Business Standard, 08 Oct

Adani Power, Adani Total Gas, AESL, To Adani Green Energy: Stocks Rally Up to 30% in 5 Days Amid Iran-US War

Goodreturns, 17 Oct

Watch Items

Cross-check against the company's latest quarterly filing / investor presentation before acting.

DalalBaazaar Thesis

StrongGrowth

MiddlingBusiness Quality · Profitability · Risk

WeakFinancial Health · Valuation

Points for each in the Score ↑

Unremarkable in both directions

A reasonable business at a reasonable price. Nothing here is alarming and nothing is compelling, which usually means the decision rests on things this data cannot see — the industry's direction, management's intent, and what else is available to you. 5 high-severity red flags sit above this conclusion and should be read first.

3 of 5 tripwires tripped — Debt / EBITDA falls below 3x; Free cash flow remains positive; Interest cover stays above 3x · see Key things to watch ↑