AGI Greenpac Limited

Consumer Cyclical — Packaging & Containers · NSE

₹750.60−₹0.10 (−0.01%)

DalalBaazaar Score

72 / 100

🟢 Good

Verdict

REASONABLE

Risk

Low

Driven by micro-cap size, which brings thin liquidity.

In simple words: Strong business and financial position, with both sales and profits growing well. Nothing obvious stands out as stretched — the usual checks on business quality and management still apply.

Decision support, not a buy or sell call.

As of 18 Oct 2026, 7:00 pm

Understanding the Business

Company site ↗

The 60-second version of AGI Greenpac Limited — what it does, how it earns, and who it competes with, before any of the numbers below.

What does this company do?

AGI Greenpac Limited operates as a packaging products company in India. It operates through two segments, Packaging Products and Investment Property.

IndustryPackaging & Containers

SectorConsumer Cyclical

Employees1,566

Annual revenue₹2,648 Cr

How does it make money?

Turns over ₹2,648 Cr a year. Of every ₹100 of sales, about ₹13 reaches shareholders as profit, with ₹25 left at the operating level before interest, tax and depreciation. Each of its 1,566 employees supports ₹1.69 Cr of revenue a year, the signature of a capital- or asset-led business.

Revenue / employee₹1.69 Cr

Who are its competitors?

The closest listed comparisons in its industry are MARUTI SUZUKI INDIA LTD., TITAN COMPANY LIMITED, TRENT LTD, AVENUE SUPERMARTS LIMITED. These are the companies its valuation and returns are measured against elsewhere in this report.

Compared side by side in Peers ↓

What is its competitive advantage?Some evidence

ROCE of 18.2% is above what capital typically costs, which suggests some pricing power, though not yet the sustained, wide gap that marks a durable advantage.

Peer median ROE25.9%

What is the outlook?

1 analysts covering the stock expect revenue to grow about 38.3% and earnings to grow about 51.1% in the year to 2028. These are estimates by people who follow the company, not a forecast for the wider industry.

Est. revenue growth+38.3%

Est. earnings growth+51.1%

Analysts1

What has been driving growth?

Sales and margins have both contributed to where profit is now. Over 3 years revenue moved +17% while net margin moved +15% relative to itself. What this cannot tell you is which products, customers or geographies did the work — that lives in the segment disclosures of the annual report.

Revenue effect+17%

Margin effect+15%

DalalBaazaar Score

72/ 100

Good

Weighted across six categories. Every point is explained below.

✗ Revenue CAGR of only 5.5% — barely ahead of inflation
• Profit CAGR of 10.4%

Quality vs. Valuation

Company Quality

72/ 100

Good

How good the business is, ignoring the share price entirely.

Valuation

82/ 100

Cheap

What you are being asked to pay, ignoring how good the business is.

A good business currently available at an undemanding price — the combination this framework is built to look for.

Historical Valuation

Current P/E

13.4x

3Y Median

18.2x

40 monthly readings · mean 18.3x · range 9.4x–28.8x

Sector Median

69.2x

median of 4 sector peers

🟢Current valuation is approximately 26% below its 3y median of 18.2x. Cheaper than its own history, which is worth a reason too: the market may be pricing in something the backward-looking numbers do not show.

🟢Against its sector it trades 81% below the peer median of 69.2x.

vs. its own history

Cheap

18.2x median over 40 months · -26%

vs. sector peers

Cheap

69.2x median of 4 peers · -81%

vs. generic bands

Cheap

Below 15x

EV/EBITDA

7.5x

PEG

1.29

What's Good / What's Bad

🟢 What's Going Well5

Margins are improving
EBITDA margin is up from 21.7% to 25.2% over 3 years.
Debt is being paid down
Total debt is down 67% over 3 years.
Return on capital is rising
ROCE has improved from 14.9% to 18.2%.
Very low debt
Debt/Equity of 0.10x leaves the balance sheet with plenty of headroom.
Consistently profitable
Profitable in every one of the last 4 reported years.

🔴 What Needs Attention0

Nothing stands out as clearly deteriorating on the years of data available.

Red Flags

No automated checks triggered

None of the automated financial checks below were triggered on the years of data available. That is not the same as a clean bill of health — see what could not be checked.

Investment Thesis

🟢 Bull CaseWhat could make this work?

Capital compounds at a high rate
ROCE of 18.2% means each rupee reinvested earns well above what capital costs. If the company can keep deploying at this rate, growth creates value rather than just consuming cash.
Margin expansion has further to run
EBITDA margin has risen from 21.7% to 25.2%. If that holds, profit compounds faster than sales and today's multiple looks cheaper in hindsight than it does now.
Deleveraging frees up earnings
Debt is down 67% over 3 years. Every rupee of interest not paid drops to the bottom line, so profit can grow even if revenue does not.
Priced below its own history
The stock trades 26% below its own median multiple. If the business performs as it has and simply re-rates back to normal, that gap is return on its own.
Cheaper than its peers
It trades 81% below the sector median. Either the market sees a problem the numbers do not show, or the discount closes.

🔴 Bear CaseWhat could go wrong?

Growth barely outpaces inflation
Revenue compounding at 5.5% a year is close to the rate prices rise, so the business is gaining little ground in real terms. That leaves the share price dependent on a re-rating rather than on earnings growth.
Size brings its own risk
Micro Cap businesses are thinly traded, so exits are harder in a falling market and single events move the price more than they would for a larger company.

🟡 Key Things to WatchMeasurable tripwires, set against where this company stands today

1EBITDA margin holds above 23%✓ 25.2%
Two points below today's level — enough room for noise, tight enough to catch real compression.
2Revenue growth stays above 4% a year✓ 5.5% CAGR
Latest reported year was 14.2%. The bar is set below the established compounding rate, so ordinary variation does not trip it.
3Free cash flow remains positive✓ ₹175 Cr
Profit that never becomes cash eventually stops being profit.
4Debt / EBITDA stays below 2x✓ 0.4x
The ratio lenders write covenants against; it survives a small or negative equity base, unlike Debt/Equity.
5ROCE stays above 15%✓ 18.2%
Falling returns on capital are usually competition arriving, and show up here before they reach the margin.

Investment Checklist

11 / 12 checks passed

✗ Strong return on equity (ROE ≥ 15%)
✓ Strong return on capital employed (ROCE ≥ 15%)
✓ Healthy net margin (≥ 10%)
✓ Generates positive free cash flow
✓ Manageable leverage (Debt/Equity < 1.0)
✓ Adequate short-term liquidity (Current Ratio ≥ 1.0)
✓ Revenue growing year-over-year
✓ Profit growing year-over-year
✓ Not trading at an extreme valuation (P/E < 40x)
✓ Not buying right at the 52-week high
✓ Analyst consensus isn't majority-sell
✓ Short-term technical trend isn't bearish

Price history

Quick Metrics

7 good · 4 neutral · 0 weak

Market Cap

₹4,856 Cr

Micro Cap

Smaller company — thin liquidity and deep drawdowns are normal here

P/E (Trailing)

13.4x

Cheap

Cheap against the generic band

P/B Ratio

2.02x

Fair

Moderate premium to the company's book value

EPS (TTM)

₹55.98

Profitable

Profitable on a per-share basis

ROE

14.6%

Moderate

Moderate capital efficiency

ROCE

18.2%

Strong

Earns comfortably above its likely cost of capital

Debt/Equity

0.10x

Low

Conservative leverage

Revenue Growth (YoY)

14.2%

Healthy

Healthy top-line growth

Profit Growth (YoY)

11.9%

Healthy

Profits growing at a healthy clip

Dividend Yield

0.93%

Modest

Small cash return — most of the return has to come from the price

Free Cash Flow

₹175 Cr

Cash generative

Generates cash even after funding its capex

More Metrics

P/E (Forward)

7.8x

Improving

Below the trailing multiple — the street expects earnings to grow into the price

Operating Margin

16.6%

Good

Healthy core-business profitability

Net Margin

13.1%

Good

Strong bottom-line conversion

Current Ratio

1.51

Comfortable

Healthy short-term liquidity

Beta (vs Nifty)

-0.17

Defensive

Steadier than the market

52W Range Position

74%

Mid-range

Technical Snapshot

SMA 20 / SMA 50

788.7 / 757.9

Bullish alignment (short > long)

Price vs SMA 200

Above

Long-term uptrend

RSI (14)

28.4

Oversold zone

Financial Trend (4-Year)

Metric	FY23	FY24	FY25	FY26	3Y CAGR
Revenue	₹2,256 Cr	₹2,400 Cr	₹2,512 Cr	₹2,648 Cr	+5.5%
EBITDA	₹490 Cr	₹582 Cr	₹665 Cr	₹668 Cr	+10.9%
EBITDA Margin	21.7%	24.2%	26.5%	25.2%	—
PAT (Net Profit)	₹262 Cr	₹251 Cr	₹322 Cr	₹352 Cr	+10.4%
EPS	₹40.44	₹38.85	₹49.83	₹54.35	+10.4%
ROE	16.3%	13.9%	15.4%	14.6%	—
ROCE	14.9%	16.5%	18.5%	18.2%	—
Total Debt	₹737 Cr	₹621 Cr	₹553 Cr	₹241 Cr	-31.1%
Free Cash Flow	₹242 Cr	₹316 Cr	₹175 Cr	₹175 Cr	-10.2%

🟢 Revenue has grown at 5.5% a year over 3 years.

🟢 EBITDA has grown at 10.9% a year over 3 years.

🟢 EBITDA Margin has risen from 21.7% to 25.2% over 3 years (+3.5 pts).

🟢 PAT (Net Profit) has grown at 10.4% a year over 3 years.

🟢 EPS has grown at 10.4% a year over 3 years.

🔴 ROE has fallen from 16.3% to 14.6% over 3 years (-1.7 pts).

🟢 ROCE has risen from 14.9% to 18.2% over 3 years (+3.3 pts).

🟢 Total Debt has shrunk at 31.1% a year over 3 years.

🔴 Free Cash Flow has shrunk at 10.2% a year over 3 years.

Balance Sheet & Cash Flow — FY2026

Total Assets

₹3,552 Cr

Total Liabilities

₹1,145 Cr

Cash & Equivalents

₹78 Cr

Operating Cash Flow

₹571 Cr

Capex

-₹397 Cr

Shareholding (proxy)

Institutional Holding

1.2%

Insider Holding

70.7%

Corporate Actions

Dividend Rate

₹7

Ex-Dividend Date

15 Sept 2026

Analyst Consensus

Recommendations

1 Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell

Target Price (Mean)

₹1,520

+102.5% vs CMP

Target Range

₹1,520 – ₹1,520

Peer Comparison

Company	P/E	ROE
MARUTI SUZUKI INDIA LTD.	25.2x	13.4%
TITAN COMPANY LIMITED	68.5x	36.7%
TRENT LTD	87.2x	25.9%
AVENUE SUPERMARTS LIMITED	69.9x	12.7%

Recent News

1 positive1 mixed4 general

AGI Greenpac Share Price

Upstox, 16 Oct

AGI Greenpac Share Price Target 2027 to 2030: Analyst Outlook

Univest, 17 AugAnalyst view

🟡Mixed / dependsBroker commentary — an opinion about the price rather than new information about the business.

AGI Greenpac (AGI) Share/Stock Price Live, NSE

TechGraph, 09 Oct

AGI Greenpac faces margin pressure amid energy cost volatility

Alice Blue, 03 Oct

Is Now The Time To Put AGI Greenpac (NSE:AGI) On Your Watchlist?

Simply Wall Street, 17 Apr

AGI Greenpac shares rally 16% as Q4 profit jumps 61% QoQ, revenue 17%

Business Standard, 28 AprResults

🟢Potentially positiveReported improvement. Check whether it came from volume, price or a one-off item before treating it as a trend.

Watch Items

Cross-check against the company's latest quarterly filing / investor presentation before acting.
RSI is in oversold territory — could mean either a bargain or a stock still falling for good reason. Check the 'why' before assuming reversal.

DalalBaazaar Thesis

StrongBusiness Quality · Financial Health · Profitability · Valuation

MiddlingGrowth · Risk

Points for each in the Score ↑

Attractive on both counts

A good business currently available at an undemanding price — the combination this framework exists to look for. The work left is qualitative: whether the advantage the numbers imply is one you can identify and expect to last.

All 5 tripwires holding · see Key things to watch ↑