Alpex Solar Limited

Sector n/a · NSE

₹838.95−₹25.40 (−2.94%)

DalalBaazaar Score

68 / 100

🟢 Good

Verdict

REASONABLE

Risk

High

Driven by moderate debt load, negative free cash flow, micro-cap size, which brings thin liquidity.

In simple words: Strong business and financial position, with both sales and profits growing well. Cash generation is currently the main factor to watch.

Decision support, not a buy or sell call.

As of 18 Oct 2026, 8:29 pm

Understanding the Business

The 60-second version of Alpex Solar Limited — what it does, how it earns, and who it competes with, before any of the numbers below.

How does it make money?

Turns over ₹2,219 Cr a year. Of every ₹100 of sales, about ₹9 reaches shareholders as profit, with ₹15 left at the operating level before interest, tax and depreciation.

What is its competitive advantage?The numbers suggest a real one

ROCE has stayed above 15% in every year available and stands at 35.6%. Returns that high normally get competed away; when they persist, something is protecting them. What that something is — brand, scale, switching costs, regulation — the accounts cannot tell you.

What has been driving growth?

Growth has come mainly from selling more, rather than from keeping more of each sale. Over 3 years revenue moved +1042% while net margin moved +372% relative to itself. What this cannot tell you is which products, customers or geographies did the work — that lives in the segment disclosures of the annual report.

Revenue effect+1042%

Margin effect+372%

DalalBaazaar Score

68/ 100

Good

Weighted across six categories. Every point is explained below.

✗ Micro Cap: thinner liquidity and sharper drawdowns are normal
✗ Profits have swung sharply from year to year — earnings are hard to forecast
✗ Negative free cash flow means dependence on external funding

Quality vs. Valuation

Company Quality

77/ 100

Good

How good the business is, ignoring the share price entirely.

Valuation

88/ 100

Cheap

What you are being asked to pay, ignoring how good the business is.

A good business currently available at an undemanding price — the combination this framework is built to look for.

vs. its own history

Not enough price and earnings history

vs. sector peers

Not enough peers with a usable P/E

vs. generic bands

No P/E available

EV/EBITDA

7.9x

PEG

—

What's Good / What's Bad

🟢 What's Going Well5

Margins are improving
EBITDA margin is up from 5.9% to 15.0% over 3 years.
Return on equity is rising
ROE has improved from 9.0% to 35.9%.
Return on capital is rising
ROCE has improved from 17.6% to 35.6%.
High return on capital employed
ROCE of 35.6% is the mark of a business that converts capital into profit efficiently.
Consistently profitable
Profitable in every one of the last 4 reported years.

🔴 What Needs Attention0

Nothing stands out as clearly deteriorating on the years of data available.

Red Flags

4 items require attention · 4 high

🔴Debt has risen sharplyFinancial
Total debt is up 1045% over 3 years, from ₹47 Cr to ₹537 Cr.
🔴Free cash flow negative for 4 yearsFinancial
The business has not covered its capital spending from operations for several years running, which has to be funded externally.
🔴Profit up while operating cash flow fallsFinancial
Reported profit rose but cash generated by operations declined — worth checking whether earnings are being supported by non-cash items or working capital.
🔴Receivables growing faster than salesFinancial
Receivables up 1262% against revenue up 1042% — sales are being booked faster than they are collected.

Investment Thesis

🟢 Bull CaseWhat could make this work?

Capital compounds at a high rate
ROCE of 35.6% means each rupee reinvested earns well above what capital costs. If the company can keep deploying at this rate, growth creates value rather than just consuming cash.
Margin expansion has further to run
EBITDA margin has risen from 5.9% to 15.0%. If that holds, profit compounds faster than sales and today's multiple looks cheaper in hindsight than it does now.
Earnings have proved durable
Profitable in every one of the last 4 reported years. Consistency lowers the risk that any single bad year is structural rather than cyclical.

🔴 Bear CaseWhat could go wrong?

Sales are being booked faster than collected
Receivables are up 1262% against revenue up 1042%. If customers keep taking longer to pay, reported profit will not turn into cash — and write-offs follow if some never do.
Earnings are hard to forecast
Profit has swung sharply from year to year, so any single year — good or bad — is a weak guide to the next. Cyclical earnings deserve lower multiples for that reason.
Size brings its own risk
Micro Cap businesses are thinly traded, so exits are harder in a falling market and single events move the price more than they would for a larger company.
Several serious flags at once
4 high-severity checks triggered. Individually each has an explanation; together they raise the chance that something structural is wrong rather than a one-off.

🟡 Key Things to WatchMeasurable tripwires, set against where this company stands today

1Revenue growth stays above 94% a year✓ 125.2% CAGR
Latest reported year was 184.5%. The bar is set below the established compounding rate, so ordinary variation does not trip it.
2EBITDA margin holds above 13%✓ 15.0%
Two points below today's level — enough room for noise, tight enough to catch real compression.
3Free cash flow remains positive✗ -₹447 Cr
Profit that never becomes cash eventually stops being profit.
4Debt / EBITDA stays below 2x✓ 1.6x
The ratio lenders write covenants against; it survives a small or negative equity base, unlike Debt/Equity.
5ROCE stays above 33%✓ 35.6%
Falling returns on capital are usually competition arriving, and show up here before they reach the margin.

Investment Checklist

6 / 9 checks passed

✓ Strong return on equity (ROE ≥ 15%)
✓ Strong return on capital employed (ROCE ≥ 15%)
✗ Healthy net margin (≥ 10%)
✗ Generates positive free cash flow
✓ Manageable leverage (Debt/Equity < 1.0)
✓ Adequate short-term liquidity (Current Ratio ≥ 1.0)
✓ Revenue growing year-over-year
✓ Profit growing year-over-year
✗ Short-term technical trend isn't bearish

Price history

Quick Metrics

5 good · 5 neutral · 1 weak

Market Cap

₹2,143 Cr

Micro Cap

Smaller company — thin liquidity and deep drawdowns are normal here

P/E (Trailing)

Not available

No data

Source didn't return this field

P/B Ratio

Not available

No data

Source didn't return this field

EPS (TTM)

₹80.52

Profitable

Profitable on a per-share basis

ROE

35.9%

Strong

Strong capital efficiency

ROCE

35.6%

Strong

Earns comfortably above its likely cost of capital

Debt/Equity

0.95x

Moderate

Moderate leverage

Revenue Growth (YoY)

184.5%

Healthy

Healthy top-line growth

Profit Growth (YoY)

141.3%

Healthy

Profits growing at a healthy clip

Dividend Yield

None

No dividend yield reported — usually means no payout, but verify if one was recently initiated

Free Cash Flow

-₹447 Cr

Cash burning

Spending more cash than the operations bring in

More Metrics

Gross Margin

29.7%

Proxy

Operating margin unavailable — showing gross margin instead

Net Margin

9.1%

Average

Average bottom-line conversion

Current Ratio

1.71

Comfortable

Healthy short-term liquidity

Technical Snapshot

SMA 20 / SMA 50

830.2 / 844.7

Bearish alignment (short < long)

Price vs SMA 200

Below

Long-term downtrend

RSI (14)

19.2

Oversold zone

Financial Trend (4-Year)

Metric	FY23	FY24	FY25	FY26	3Y CAGR
Revenue	₹194 Cr	₹411 Cr	₹780 Cr	₹2,219 Cr	+125.2%
EBITDA	₹12 Cr	₹39 Cr	₹128 Cr	₹334 Cr	+207.1%
EBITDA Margin	5.9%	9.6%	16.4%	15.0%	—
PAT (Net Profit)	₹4 Cr	₹29 Cr	₹83 Cr	₹201 Cr	+277.7%
EPS	₹1.53	₹15.47	₹34.11	₹80.52	+275.0%
ROE	9.0%	21.9%	38.6%	35.9%	—
ROCE	17.6%	28.6%	50.2%	35.6%	—
Total Debt	₹47 Cr	₹49 Cr	₹79 Cr	₹537 Cr	+125.4%
Free Cash Flow	-₹13 Cr	-₹20 Cr	-₹15 Cr	-₹447 Cr	—

🟢 Revenue has grown at 125.2% a year over 3 years.

🟢 EBITDA has grown at 207.1% a year over 3 years.

🟢 EBITDA Margin has risen from 5.9% to 15.0% over 3 years (+9.1 pts).

🟢 PAT (Net Profit) has grown at 277.7% a year over 3 years.

🟢 EPS has grown at 275.0% a year over 3 years.

🟢 ROE has risen from 9.0% to 35.9% over 3 years (+26.8 pts).

🟢 ROCE has risen from 17.6% to 35.6% over 3 years (+18.0 pts).

🔴 Total Debt has grown at 125.4% a year over 3 years.

Balance Sheet & Cash Flow — FY2026

Total Assets

₹1,384 Cr

Total Liabilities

₹822 Cr

Cash & Equivalents

₹30 Cr

Operating Cash Flow

-₹116 Cr

Capex

-₹332 Cr

Recent News

6 general

Is Alpex Solar the Best Stock in Its Sector? A Look at the Numbers

Univest, 16 Oct

Compare with Havells India

Equitymaster, 16 Oct

Even With A 26% Surge, Cautious Investors Are Not Rewarding Alpex Solar Limited's (NSE:ALPEXSOLAR) Performance Completely

Simply Wall Street, 12 Feb

Alpex Solar promoters declare no share encumbrance in FY26

scanx.trade, 22 Jun

Alpex Solar Starts 2.2 GW TOPCon Plant; Shares Trade Near ₹900

HDFC Sky, 17 Sept

Alpex Solar Standalone March 2026 Net Sales at Rs 668.92 crore, up 104.86% Y-o-Y

Moneycontrol.com, 22 May

Watch Items

Cross-check against the company's latest quarterly filing / investor presentation before acting.
Sector/industry classification unavailable — verify manually for peer comparison.
2 metrics couldn't be retrieved for this stock — this is more common for smaller or thinly-covered listings.
RSI is in oversold territory — could mean either a bargain or a stock still falling for good reason. Check the 'why' before assuming reversal.

DalalBaazaar Thesis

StrongBusiness Quality · Growth · Profitability

MiddlingFinancial Health · Valuation

WeakRisk

Points for each in the Score ↑

Attractive on both counts

A good business currently available at an undemanding price — the combination this framework exists to look for. The work left is qualitative: whether the advantage the numbers imply is one you can identify and expect to last. 4 high-severity red flags sit above this conclusion and should be read first.

1 of 5 tripwires tripped — Free cash flow remains positive · see Key things to watch ↑