AVG Logistics Limited

Industrials — Integrated Freight & Logistics · NSE

₹168.00+₹5.55 (+3.42%)

DalalBaazaar Score

61 / 100

🟢 Good

Verdict

NEUTRAL

Risk

High

Driven by moderate debt load, negative free cash flow, micro-cap size, which brings thin liquidity.

In simple words: Strong business and financial position, with modest growth. Cash generation is currently the main factor to watch.

Decision support, not a buy or sell call.

As of 18 Oct 2026, 6:59 pm

Understanding the Business

Company site ↗

The 60-second version of AVG Logistics Limited — what it does, how it earns, and who it competes with, before any of the numbers below.

What does this company do?

AVG Logistics Limited engages in the provision of logistics services in India. The company offers multimodal transportation, including road and rail services to logistics solutions; and first-mile, mid-mile, and last-mile connectivity services.

IndustryIntegrated Freight & Logistics

SectorIndustrials

Employees563

Annual revenue₹550 Cr

How does it make money?

Turns over ₹550 Cr a year. Of every ₹100 of sales, about ₹5 reaches shareholders as profit, with ₹13 left at the operating level before interest, tax and depreciation. Each of its 563 employees supports ₹97.7 lakh of revenue a year, the signature of a people-led business.

Revenue / employee₹97.7 lakh

Who are its competitors?

The closest listed comparisons in its industry are LARSEN & TOUBRO LTD., SIEMENS LTD, ABB INDIA LIMITED. These are the companies its valuation and returns are measured against elsewhere in this report.

Compared side by side in Peers ↓

What is its competitive advantage?Some evidence

ROCE of 15.2% is above what capital typically costs, which suggests some pricing power, though not yet the sustained, wide gap that marks a durable advantage.

Peer median ROE15.2%

What has been driving growth?

Profit has moved mainly because margins changed, not because the business sold much more. Over 3 years revenue moved +29% while net margin moved +142% relative to itself. What this cannot tell you is which products, customers or geographies did the work — that lives in the segment disclosures of the annual report.

Revenue effect+29%

Margin effect+142%

DalalBaazaar Score

61/ 100

Good

Weighted across six categories. Every point is explained below.

✗ ROE of 9.7% is weak

Quality vs. Valuation

Company Quality

58/ 100

Average

How good the business is, ignoring the share price entirely.

Valuation

88/ 100

Cheap

What you are being asked to pay, ignoring how good the business is.

A reasonable business at a reasonable price — neither the quality nor the valuation stands out in either direction.

Historical Valuation

Current P/E

9.5x

3Y Median

14.4x

40 monthly readings · mean 27.7x · range 9.4x–92.2x

Sector Median

88.8x

median of 3 sector peers

🟢Current valuation is approximately 34% below its 3y median of 14.4x. Cheaper than its own history, which is worth a reason too: the market may be pricing in something the backward-looking numbers do not show.

🟢Against its sector it trades 89% below the peer median of 88.8x.

vs. its own history

Cheap

14.4x median over 40 months · -34%

vs. sector peers

Cheap

88.8x median of 3 peers · -89%

vs. generic bands

Cheap

Below 15x

EV/EBITDA

7.3x

PEG

0.20

What's Good / What's Bad

🟢 What's Going Well3

Margins are improving
EBITDA margin is up from 11.7% to 13.3% over 3 years.
Debt is being paid down
Total debt is down 17% over 3 years.
Consistently profitable
Profitable in every one of the last 4 reported years.

🔴 What Needs Attention0

Nothing stands out as clearly deteriorating on the years of data available.

Red Flags

3 items require attention · 2 high · 1 watch

🔴Free cash flow negative for 3 yearsFinancial
The business has not covered its capital spending from operations for several years running, which has to be funded externally.
🔴Receivables growing faster than salesFinancial
Receivables up 92% against revenue up 29% — sales are being booked faster than they are collected.
🟡Shareholders have been dilutedOwnership
Shares outstanding are up 28% over 3 years — each existing share owns a smaller slice of the company.

Investment Thesis

🟢 Bull CaseWhat could make this work?

Margin expansion has further to run
EBITDA margin has risen from 11.7% to 13.3%. If that holds, profit compounds faster than sales and today's multiple looks cheaper in hindsight than it does now.
Deleveraging frees up earnings
Debt is down 17% over 3 years. Every rupee of interest not paid drops to the bottom line, so profit can grow even if revenue does not.
Priced below its own history
The stock trades 34% below its own median multiple. If the business performs as it has and simply re-rates back to normal, that gap is return on its own.
Cheaper than its peers
It trades 89% below the sector median. Either the market sees a problem the numbers do not show, or the discount closes.
Earnings have proved durable
Profitable in every one of the last 4 reported years. Consistency lowers the risk that any single bad year is structural rather than cyclical.

🔴 Bear CaseWhat could go wrong?

Sales are being booked faster than collected
Receivables are up 92% against revenue up 29%. If customers keep taking longer to pay, reported profit will not turn into cash — and write-offs follow if some never do.
Earnings are hard to forecast
Profit has swung sharply from year to year, so any single year — good or bad — is a weak guide to the next. Cyclical earnings deserve lower multiples for that reason.
Size brings its own risk
Micro Cap businesses are thinly traded, so exits are harder in a falling market and single events move the price more than they would for a larger company.
Several serious flags at once
2 high-severity checks triggered. Individually each has an explanation; together they raise the chance that something structural is wrong rather than a one-off.

🟡 Key Things to WatchMeasurable tripwires, set against where this company stands today

1EBITDA margin holds above 11%✓ 13.3%
Two points below today's level — enough room for noise, tight enough to catch real compression.
2Debt / EBITDA stays below 2x✗ 3.0x
The ratio lenders write covenants against; it survives a small or negative equity base, unlike Debt/Equity.
3Free cash flow remains positive✗ -₹25 Cr
Profit that never becomes cash eventually stops being profit.
4Interest cover stays above 3x✗ 2.3x
How much operating profit can fall before interest stops being comfortably covered.
5Revenue growth stays above 7% a year✓ 9.0% CAGR
Latest reported year was 6.0%. The bar is set below the established compounding rate, so ordinary variation does not trip it.

Investment Checklist

7 / 11 checks passed

✗ Strong return on equity (ROE ≥ 15%)
✓ Strong return on capital employed (ROCE ≥ 15%)
✗ Healthy net margin (≥ 10%)
✗ Generates positive free cash flow
✓ Manageable leverage (Debt/Equity < 1.0)
✓ Adequate short-term liquidity (Current Ratio ≥ 1.0)
✓ Revenue growing year-over-year
✓ Profit growing year-over-year
✓ Not trading at an extreme valuation (P/E < 40x)
✓ Not buying right at the 52-week high
✗ Short-term technical trend isn't bearish

Price history

Quick Metrics

5 good · 5 neutral · 1 weak

Market Cap

₹314 Cr

Micro Cap

Smaller company — thin liquidity and deep drawdowns are normal here

P/E (Trailing)

9.5x

Cheap

Cheap against the generic band

P/B Ratio

0.93x

Reasonable

Reasonable against the company's book value

EPS (TTM)

₹17.72

Profitable

Profitable on a per-share basis

ROE

9.7%

Moderate

Moderate capital efficiency

ROCE

15.2%

Strong

Earns comfortably above its likely cost of capital

Debt/Equity

0.81x

Moderate

Moderate leverage

Revenue Growth (YoY)

6.0%

Modest

Modest growth

Profit Growth (YoY)

23.4%

Healthy

Profits growing at a healthy clip

Dividend Yield

0.71%

Modest

Small cash return — most of the return has to come from the price

Free Cash Flow

-₹25 Cr

Cash burning

Spending more cash than the operations bring in

More Metrics

Operating Margin

10.4%

Average

Average margins

Net Margin

4.9%

Average

Average bottom-line conversion

Current Ratio

1.97

Comfortable

Healthy short-term liquidity

Beta (vs Nifty)

-0.65

Defensive

Steadier than the market

52W Range Position

44%

Mid-range

Technical Snapshot

SMA 20 / SMA 50

166.0 / 177.0

Bearish alignment (short < long)

Price vs SMA 200

Below

Long-term downtrend

RSI (14)

52.5

Neutral momentum

Financial Trend (4-Year)

Metric	FY23	FY24	FY25	FY26	3Y CAGR
Revenue	₹425 Cr	₹478 Cr	₹549 Cr	₹550 Cr	+9.0%
EBITDA	₹50 Cr	₹87 Cr	₹67 Cr	₹73 Cr	+13.7%
EBITDA Margin	11.7%	18.2%	12.1%	13.3%	—
PAT (Net Profit)	₹8 Cr	₹32 Cr	₹21 Cr	₹26 Cr	+46.4%
EPS	₹6.88	₹25.87	₹14.57	₹16.87	+34.8%
ROE	9.3%	16.0%	8.6%	9.7%	—
ROCE	14.9%	20.3%	14.4%	15.2%	—
Total Debt	₹266 Cr	₹220 Cr	₹219 Cr	₹220 Cr	-6.2%
Free Cash Flow	₹20 Cr	-₹24 Cr	-₹29 Cr	-₹25 Cr	—

🟢 Revenue has grown at 9.0% a year over 3 years.

🟢 EBITDA has grown at 13.7% a year over 3 years.

🟢 EBITDA Margin has risen from 11.7% to 13.3% over 3 years (+1.6 pts).

🟢 PAT (Net Profit) has grown at 46.4% a year over 3 years.

🟢 EPS has grown at 34.8% a year over 3 years.

🟡 ROE has held roughly flat at 9.7% over 3 years.

🟡 ROCE has held roughly flat at 15.2% over 3 years.

🟢 Total Debt has shrunk at 6.2% a year over 3 years.

🔴 Free Cash Flow has turned negative, from ₹20 Cr to -₹25 Cr.

Balance Sheet & Cash Flow — FY2026

Total Assets

₹548 Cr

Total Liabilities

₹277 Cr

Cash & Equivalents

₹1 Cr

Operating Cash Flow

₹49 Cr

Capex

-₹74 Cr

Shareholding (proxy)

Institutional Holding

17.2%

Insider Holding

53.4%

Corporate Actions

Dividend Rate

₹1.2

Ex-Dividend Date

18 Sept 2026

Peer Comparison

Company	P/E	ROE
LARSEN & TOUBRO LTD.	30.1x	15.2%
SIEMENS LTD	88.8x	10.5%
ABB INDIA LIMITED	92.6x	19.1%

Recent News

1 mixed5 general

AVG Logistics Ltd. Shareholding Pattern – Promoters, FIIs & DIIs

Value Research, 27 Aug

AVG Logistics: Best Stock in Its Sector? Key Metrics

Univest, 23 Sept

AVG Logistics rights issue opens, specific investors apply

scanx.trade, 15 May

Avg Logistics Rights Issue 2026 Date, Price, Allotment, Ratio

IPO Watch, 21 May

The Market Doesn't Like What It Sees From AVG Logistics Limited's (NSE:AVG) Earnings Yet As Shares Tumble 26%

Simply Wall Street, 06 DecPrice move

🟡Mixed / dependsA price move rather than a change in the business. If the figures on this page have not moved, the fall is either an opportunity or news they have yet to catch up with.

AVG Logistics rallies 8% on inking MoU with Baidyanath LNG; details here

Business Standard, 26 Dec

Watch Items

Cross-check against the company's latest quarterly filing / investor presentation before acting.

DalalBaazaar Thesis

StrongGrowth · Valuation

MiddlingBusiness Quality · Financial Health

WeakProfitability · Risk

Points for each in the Score ↑

Unremarkable in both directions

A reasonable business at a reasonable price. Nothing here is alarming and nothing is compelling, which usually means the decision rests on things this data cannot see — the industry's direction, management's intent, and what else is available to you. 2 high-severity red flags sit above this conclusion and should be read first.

3 of 5 tripwires tripped — Debt / EBITDA stays below 2x; Free cash flow remains positive; Interest cover stays above 3x · see Key things to watch ↑