Balrampur Chini Mills Limited

Consumer Defensive — Confectioners · NSE

₹716.00−₹10.00 (−1.38%)

DalalBaazaar Score

52 / 100

🟡 Moderate

Verdict

NEUTRAL

Risk

Moderate

Driven by negative free cash flow, small-cap size, which brings sharper price swings, falling profits.

In simple words: Reasonable but unspectacular business quality, though profits are falling even as sales grow. Cash generation is currently the main factor to watch.

Decision support, not a buy or sell call.

As of 18 Oct 2026, 6:59 pm

Understanding the Business

Company site ↗

The 60-second version of Balrampur Chini Mills Limited — what it does, how it earns, and who it competes with, before any of the numbers below.

What does this company do?

Balrampur Chini Mills Limited manufactures and sells of sugar in India. It operates through Sugar, Distillery, Polylactic Acid, and Others segments. The company offers molasses, industrial alcohol, ethanol, extra neutral alcohol, CO2, dry ice, and bagasse products.

IndustryConfectioners

SectorConsumer Defensive

Employees5,985

Annual revenue₹6,271 Cr

How does it make money?

Turns over ₹6,271 Cr a year. Of every ₹100 of sales, about ₹6 reaches shareholders as profit, with ₹13 left at the operating level before interest, tax and depreciation. Each of its 5,985 employees supports ₹1.05 Cr of revenue a year, the signature of a capital- or asset-led business.

Revenue / employee₹1.05 Cr

Who are its competitors?

The closest listed comparisons in its industry are HINDUSTAN UNILEVER LTD., ITC LTD, NESTLE INDIA LIMITED, BRITANNIA INDUSTRIES LTD. These are the companies its valuation and returns are measured against elsewhere in this report.

Compared side by side in Peers ↓

What is its competitive advantage?Little sign of one

Returns on capital of 11.8% are at or below what the capital likely costs. That is the financial pattern of a business competing largely on price, where advantage has to come from execution rather than position.

Peer median ROE51.0%

What is the outlook?

4 analysts covering the stock expect revenue to grow about 22.8% and earnings to grow about 52.4% in the year to 2028. These are estimates by people who follow the company, not a forecast for the wider industry.

Est. revenue growth+22.8%

Est. earnings growth+52.4%

Analysts4

What has been driving growth?

Growth has come mainly from selling more, rather than from keeping more of each sale. Over 3 years revenue moved +34% while net margin moved -1% relative to itself. What this cannot tell you is which products, customers or geographies did the work — that lives in the segment disclosures of the annual report.

Revenue effect+34%

Margin effect-1%

DalalBaazaar Score

52/ 100

Moderate

Weighted across six categories. Every point is explained below.

• P/E of 39.3x already prices in growth
✗ P/E is 61% above its own historical median of 24.5x — expensive by its own standards

Quality vs. Valuation

Company Quality

55/ 100

Average

How good the business is, ignoring the share price entirely.

Valuation

36/ 100

Expensive

What you are being asked to pay, ignoring how good the business is.

A reasonable business at a reasonable price — neither the quality nor the valuation stands out in either direction.

Historical Valuation

Current P/E

39.3x

3Y Median

24.5x

40 monthly readings · mean 25.9x · range 16.8x–38.8x

Sector Median

43.3x

median of 4 sector peers

⚠️Current valuation is approximately 61% above its 3y median of 24.5x. Paying more than usual needs a reason — faster growth, a better balance sheet, or a re-rating you believe in.

🟡Against its sector it is priced broadly in line with the peer median of 43.3x.

vs. its own history

Expensive

24.5x median over 40 months · +61%

vs. sector peers

Fair

43.3x median of 4 peers · -9%

vs. generic bands

Expensive

Above 35x

EV/EBITDA

22.8x

PEG

3.92

What's Good / What's Bad

🟢 What's Going Well1

Consistently profitable
Profitable in every one of the last 4 reported years.

🔴 What Needs Attention0

Nothing stands out as clearly deteriorating on the years of data available.

Red Flags

2 items require attention · 2 high

🔴Debt has risen sharplyFinancial
Total debt is up 69% over 3 years, from ₹1,880 Cr to ₹3,170 Cr.
🔴Free cash flow negative for 4 yearsFinancial
The business has not covered its capital spending from operations for several years running, which has to be funded externally.

Investment Thesis

🟢 Bull CaseWhat could make this work?

Earnings have proved durable
Profitable in every one of the last 4 reported years. Consistency lowers the risk that any single bad year is structural rather than cyclical.

🔴 Bear CaseWhat could go wrong?

The debt load needs earnings to hold up
Debt is 3.9x EBITDA. At that level a downturn in earnings turns a manageable balance sheet into a refinancing problem, and lenders get paid before shareholders.
The price already assumes success
The stock trades 61% above its own median multiple. At this level the business has to deliver just to stand still, and a stumble is repriced twice — lower earnings on a lower multiple.
Size brings its own risk
Small Cap businesses are thinly traded, so exits are harder in a falling market and single events move the price more than they would for a larger company.
Several serious flags at once
2 high-severity checks triggered. Individually each has an explanation; together they raise the chance that something structural is wrong rather than a one-off.

🟡 Key Things to WatchMeasurable tripwires, set against where this company stands today

1Revenue growth stays above 8% a year✓ 10.4% CAGR
Latest reported year was 6.1%. The bar is set below the established compounding rate, so ordinary variation does not trip it.
2EBITDA margin holds above 11%✓ 12.8%
Two points below today's level — enough room for noise, tight enough to catch real compression.
3Debt / EBITDA falls below 3x✗ 3.9x
Already stretched, so this is a reduction target rather than a level to hold. Around 3x is where lenders typically start attaching conditions.
4Free cash flow remains positive✗ -₹349 Cr
Profit that never becomes cash eventually stops being profit.
5ROCE stays above 9%✓ 11.8%
Falling returns on capital are usually competition arriving, and show up here before they reach the margin.

Investment Checklist

7 / 12 checks passed

✗ Strong return on equity (ROE ≥ 15%)
✗ Strong return on capital employed (ROCE ≥ 15%)
✗ Healthy net margin (≥ 10%)
✗ Generates positive free cash flow
✓ Manageable leverage (Debt/Equity < 1.0)
✓ Adequate short-term liquidity (Current Ratio ≥ 1.0)
✓ Revenue growing year-over-year
✗ Profit growing year-over-year
✓ Not trading at an extreme valuation (P/E < 40x)
✓ Not buying right at the 52-week high
✓ Analyst consensus isn't majority-sell
✓ Short-term technical trend isn't bearish

Price history

Quick Metrics

1 good · 8 neutral · 2 weak

Market Cap

₹15,150 Cr

Small Cap

Smaller company — thin liquidity and deep drawdowns are normal here

P/E (Trailing)

39.3x

Fair

Fairly valued against the generic band

P/B Ratio

3.49x

Fair

Moderate premium to the company's book value

EPS (TTM)

₹18.21

Profitable

Profitable on a per-share basis

ROE

9.1%

Moderate

Moderate capital efficiency

ROCE

11.8%

Moderate

Moderate return on the capital in the business

Debt/Equity

0.77x

Moderate

Moderate leverage

Revenue Growth (YoY)

6.1%

Modest

Modest growth

Profit Growth (YoY)

-15.4%

Falling

Profits are shrinking

Dividend Yield

0.98%

Modest

Small cash return — most of the return has to come from the price

Free Cash Flow

-₹349 Cr

Cash burning

Spending more cash than the operations bring in

More Metrics

P/E (Forward)

18.9x

Improving

Below the trailing multiple — the street expects earnings to grow into the price

Operating Margin

4.3%

Weak

Thin margins leave little room for error

Net Margin

5.8%

Average

Average bottom-line conversion

Current Ratio

1.13

Adequate

Adequate, but no real cushion

Beta (vs Nifty)

0.38

Defensive

Steadier than the market

52W Range Position

83%

Mid-range

Technical Snapshot

SMA 20 / SMA 50

685.2 / 677.6

Bullish alignment (short > long)

Price vs SMA 200

Above

Long-term uptrend

RSI (14)

59.4

Neutral momentum

Financial Trend (4-Year)

Metric	FY23	FY24	FY25	FY26	3Y CAGR
Revenue	₹4,666 Cr	₹5,594 Cr	₹5,415 Cr	₹6,271 Cr	+10.4%
EBITDA	₹581 Cr	₹847 Cr	₹767 Cr	₹803 Cr	+11.4%
EBITDA Margin	12.4%	15.1%	14.2%	12.8%	—
PAT (Net Profit)	₹284 Cr	₹534 Cr	₹437 Cr	₹378 Cr	+10.0%
EPS	₹13.94	₹26.49	₹21.57	₹18.59	+10.1%
ROE	9.8%	15.7%	11.5%	9.1%	—
ROCE	13.2%	20.8%	14.3%	11.8%	—
Total Debt	₹1,880 Cr	₹2,009 Cr	₹2,627 Cr	₹3,170 Cr	+19.0%
Free Cash Flow	-₹403 Cr	-₹91 Cr	-₹467 Cr	-₹349 Cr	—

🟢 Revenue has grown at 10.4% a year over 3 years.

🟢 EBITDA has grown at 11.4% a year over 3 years.

🟡 EBITDA Margin has held roughly flat at 12.8% over 3 years.

🟢 PAT (Net Profit) has grown at 10.0% a year over 3 years.

🟢 EPS has grown at 10.1% a year over 3 years.

🟡 ROE has held roughly flat at 9.1% over 3 years.

🔴 ROCE has fallen from 13.2% to 11.8% over 3 years (-1.4 pts).

🔴 Total Debt has grown at 19.0% a year over 3 years.

Balance Sheet & Cash Flow — FY2026

Total Assets

₹8,406 Cr

Total Liabilities

₹4,268 Cr

Cash & Equivalents

₹0 Cr

Operating Cash Flow

₹599 Cr

Capex

-₹949 Cr

Shareholding (proxy)

Institutional Holding

34.4%

Insider Holding

45.9%

Corporate Actions

Dividend Rate

₹7

Ex-Dividend Date

17 Nov 2025

Analyst Consensus

Recommendations

4 Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell

Target Price (Mean)

₹756.75

+5.7% vs CMP

Target Range

₹695 – ₹850

Peer Comparison

Company	P/E	ROE
HINDUSTAN UNILEVER LTD.	42.5x	21.5%
ITC LTD	16.6x	27.4%
NESTLE INDIA LIMITED	59.8x	79.9%
BRITANNIA INDUSTRIES LTD	44.1x	51.0%

Recent News

2 mixed4 general

Market Trading Guide: Balrampur Chini Mills among 4 stock recommendations for Wednesday

The Economic Times, 13 Oct

Balrampur Chini Mills Share Price Target 2026: Rs 600 to 680

Univest, 05 OctAnalyst view

🟡Mixed / dependsBroker commentary — an opinion about the price rather than new information about the business.

Balrampur Chini Mills (NSEI:BALRAMCHIN) Stock Price

Simply Wall Street, 01 Oct

Balrampur Chini gets exchange nod for ₹450 Cr preferential issue

scanx.trade, 11 Oct

Balrampur Chini Mills share price up over 10% in 5 days - What's sweetening up stock investors | Explained

Livemint, 24 Aug

BALRAMCHIN Forecast — Price Target — Prediction for 2027

TradingView, 25 JunAnalyst view

🟡Mixed / dependsBroker commentary — an opinion about the price rather than new information about the business.

Watch Items

Cross-check against the company's latest quarterly filing / investor presentation before acting.

DalalBaazaar Thesis

StrongGrowth

MiddlingBusiness Quality · Financial Health · Risk

WeakProfitability · Valuation

Points for each in the Score ↑

Unremarkable in both directions

A reasonable business at a reasonable price. Nothing here is alarming and nothing is compelling, which usually means the decision rests on things this data cannot see — the industry's direction, management's intent, and what else is available to you. 2 high-severity red flags sit above this conclusion and should be read first.

2 of 5 tripwires tripped — Debt / EBITDA falls below 3x; Free cash flow remains positive · see Key things to watch ↑