Blue Dart Express Limited

Industrials — Integrated Freight & Logistics · NSE

₹4,410.00−₹57.50 (−1.29%)

DalalBaazaar Score

50 / 100

🟡 Moderate

Verdict

NEUTRAL

Risk

Low

Driven by small-cap size, which brings sharper price swings.

In simple words: Strong business and financial position, with both sales and profits growing well. Nothing on this snapshot stands out as an immediate concern — the usual checks on business quality and management still apply.

Decision support, not a buy or sell call.

As of 18 Oct 2026, 6:09 pm

Mixed / neutral. No major red flags jump out, but nothing here screams "obviously cheap" either. This is a name that needs a peer comparison and a view on near-term earnings triggers before sizing a position.

Understanding the Business

Company site ↗

The 60-second version of Blue Dart Express Limited — what it does, how it earns, and who it competes with, before any of the numbers below.

What does this company do?

Blue Dart Express Limited provides courier and express services in India.

IndustryIntegrated Freight & Logistics

SectorIndustrials

Employees13,251

Annual revenue₹6,141 Cr

How does it make money?

Turns over ₹6,141 Cr a year. Of every ₹100 of sales, about ₹4 reaches shareholders as profit, with ₹16 left at the operating level before interest, tax and depreciation. Each of its 13,251 employees supports ₹46.3 lakh of revenue a year, the signature of a people-led business.

EBITDA margin15.8%

Net margin4.0%

Revenue / employee₹46.3 lakh

Who are its competitors?

The closest listed comparisons in its industry are LARSEN & TOUBRO LTD., SIEMENS LTD, ABB INDIA LIMITED. These are the companies its valuation and returns are measured against elsewhere in this report.

LARSEN & TOUBRO LTD.P/E 30.1x · ROE 15.2%

SIEMENS LTDP/E 88.8x · ROE 10.5%

ABB INDIA LIMITEDP/E 92.6x · ROE 19.1%

What is its competitive advantage?Some evidence

ROCE of 16.9% is above what capital typically costs, which suggests some pricing power, though not yet the sustained, wide gap that marks a durable advantage.

ROCE16.9%

ROE13.9%

Peer median ROE15.2%

What is the outlook?

3 analysts covering the stock expect revenue to grow about 9.9% and earnings to grow about 17.6% in the year to 2028. These are estimates by people who follow the company, not a forecast for the wider industry.

Est. revenue growth+9.9%

Est. earnings growth+17.6%

Analysts3

What has been driving growth?

Profit has moved mainly because margins changed, not because the business sold much more. Over 3 years revenue moved +19% while net margin moved -44% relative to itself. What this cannot tell you is which products, customers or geographies did the work — that lives in the segment disclosures of the annual report.

Revenue effect+19%

Margin effect-44%

DalalBaazaar Score

50/ 100

Moderate

Weighted across six categories. Every point is explained below.

✗ Revenue CAGR of only 5.9% — barely ahead of inflation
✗ Profit has declined at 12.6% a year
✗ Profit is compounding slower than revenue — margins are being squeezed as the business grows

Quality vs. Valuation

Company Quality

47/ 100

Average

How good the business is, ignoring the share price entirely.

Valuation

67/ 100

Fair

What you are being asked to pay, ignoring how good the business is.

A reasonable business at a reasonable price — neither the quality nor the valuation stands out in either direction.

Historical Valuation

Current P/E

36.5x

3Y Median

48.5x

40 monthly readings · mean 49.2x · range 38.6x–64.7x

Sector Median

88.8x

median of 3 sector peers

🟢Current valuation is approximately 25% below its 3y median of 48.5x. Cheaper than its own history, which is worth a reason too: the market may be pricing in something the backward-looking numbers do not show.

🟢Against its sector it trades 59% below the peer median of 88.8x.

vs. its own history

Cheap

48.5x median over 40 months · -25%

vs. sector peers

Cheap

88.8x median of 3 peers · -59%

vs. generic bands

Expensive

Above 35x

P/E (Trailing)

36.5x

P/B

5.89x

EV/EBITDA

11.7x

PEG

—

Dividend Yield

0.57%

What's Good / What's Bad

🟢 What's Going Well3

Cash generation is improving
Free cash flow is up 241% over 3 years.
Valuation below its historical average
At 36.5x the stock trades 25% below its own median of 48.5x.
Consistently profitable
Profitable in every one of the last 4 reported years.

🔴 What Needs Attention4

Margins are compressing
EBITDA margin has slipped from 18.5% to 15.8% over 3 years.
Return on equity is falling
ROE has dropped from 31.4% to 13.9% — each rupee of shareholder capital earns less than it did.
Return on capital is falling
ROCE has declined from 27.3% to 16.9% — often a sign of competition or overexpansion.
Receivables growing faster than sales
Receivables are up 44% against revenue growth of 19% — customers are taking longer to pay.

Red Flags

3 items require attention · 3 watch

🟡Profit is decliningFinancial
Net profit is down 33% over 3 years.
🟡Margins are compressingFinancial
EBITDA margin is down 2.7 points over 3 years.
🟡Receivables growing faster than salesFinancial
Receivables up 44% against revenue up 19% — sales are being booked faster than they are collected.

Investment Thesis

🟢 Bull CaseWhat could make this work?

Priced below its own history
The stock trades 25% below its own median multiple. If the business performs as it has and simply re-rates back to normal, that gap is return on its own.
Cheaper than its peers
It trades 59% below the sector median. Either the market sees a problem the numbers do not show, or the discount closes.
Earnings have proved durable
Profitable in every one of the last 4 reported years. Consistency lowers the risk that any single bad year is structural rather than cyclical.

🔴 Bear CaseWhat could go wrong?

Margins are being competed away
EBITDA margin has fallen from 18.5% to 15.8%. If the trend continues, profit falls even on flat sales — and margin decline rarely reverses quickly.
Sales are being booked faster than collected
Receivables are up 44% against revenue up 19%. If customers keep taking longer to pay, reported profit will not turn into cash — and write-offs follow if some never do.
Growth barely outpaces inflation
Revenue compounding at 5.9% a year is close to the rate prices rise, so the business is gaining little ground in real terms. That leaves the share price dependent on a re-rating rather than on earnings growth.
Returns on shareholder capital are falling
ROE has dropped from 31.4% to 13.9%. Each rupee of equity earns less than it did, so profit growth increasingly depends on raising more capital rather than on the existing base working harder.
Size brings its own risk
Small Cap businesses are thinly traded, so exits are harder in a falling market and single events move the price more than they would for a larger company.

🟡 Key Things to WatchMeasurable tripwires, set against where this company stands today

1EBITDA margin holds above 14%✓ 15.8%
Two points below today's level — enough room for noise, tight enough to catch real compression.
2Revenue growth stays above 4% a year✓ 5.9% CAGR
Latest reported year was 15.0%. The bar is set below the established compounding rate, so ordinary variation does not trip it.
3Free cash flow remains positive✓ ₹496 Cr
Profit that never becomes cash eventually stops being profit.
4Debt / EBITDA stays below 2x✓ 1.2x
The ratio lenders write covenants against; it survives a small or negative equity base, unlike Debt/Equity.
5ROCE stays above 14%✓ 16.9%
Falling returns on capital are usually competition arriving, and show up here before they reach the margin.

Investment Checklist

9 / 12 checks passed

✗ Strong return on equity (ROE ≥ 15%)
✓ Strong return on capital employed (ROCE ≥ 15%)
✗ Healthy net margin (≥ 10%)
✓ Generates positive free cash flow
✓ Manageable leverage (Debt/Equity < 1.0)
✓ Adequate short-term liquidity (Current Ratio ≥ 1.0)
✓ Revenue growing year-over-year
✓ Profit growing year-over-year
✓ Not trading at an extreme valuation (P/E < 40x)
✓ Not buying right at the 52-week high
✓ Analyst consensus isn't majority-sell
✗ Short-term technical trend isn't bearish

Price history

Quick Metrics

5 good · 5 neutral · 1 weak

Market Cap

₹10,464 Cr

Small Cap

Smaller company — thin liquidity and deep drawdowns are normal here

P/E (Trailing)

36.5x

Fair

Fairly valued against the generic band

P/B Ratio

5.89x

Rich

Steep premium to book — needs high, durable returns to justify

EPS (TTM)

₹120.97

Profitable

Profitable on a per-share basis

ROE

13.9%

Moderate

Moderate capital efficiency

ROCE

16.9%

Strong

Earns comfortably above its likely cost of capital

Debt/Equity

0.64x

Moderate

Moderate leverage

Revenue Growth (YoY)

15.0%

Healthy

Healthy top-line growth

Profit Growth (YoY)

81.2%

Healthy

Profits growing at a healthy clip

Dividend Yield

0.57%

Modest

Small cash return — most of the return has to come from the price

Free Cash Flow

₹496 Cr

Cash generative

Generates cash even after funding its capex

More Metrics

CMP

₹4,410

P/E (Forward)

23.0x

Improving

Below the trailing multiple — the street expects earnings to grow into the price

Operating Margin

7.5%

Average

Average margins

Net Margin

4.5%

Average

Average bottom-line conversion

Current Ratio

1.04

Adequate

Adequate, but no real cushion

Beta (vs Nifty)

0.26

Defensive

Steadier than the market

52W Range Position

Near low

Near its 52-week low

Technical Snapshot

SMA 20 / SMA 50

4620.7 / 4858.2

Bearish alignment (short < long)

Price vs SMA 200

Below

Long-term downtrend

RSI (14)

21.2

Oversold zone

Financial Trend (4-Year)

Metric	FY23	FY24	FY25	FY26	3Y CAGR
Revenue	₹5,172 Cr	₹5,268 Cr	₹5,720 Cr	₹6,141 Cr	+5.9%
EBITDA	₹956 Cr	₹889 Cr	₹894 Cr	₹969 Cr	+0.4%
EBITDA Margin	18.5%	16.9%	15.6%	15.8%	—
PAT (Net Profit)	₹371 Cr	₹301 Cr	₹252 Cr	₹247 Cr	-12.6%
EPS	₹156.16	₹126.86	₹106.38	₹104.26	-12.6%
ROE	31.4%	22.0%	16.2%	13.9%	—
ROCE	27.3%	23.9%	18.3%	16.9%	—
Total Debt	₹1,121 Cr	₹1,074 Cr	₹1,008 Cr	₹1,142 Cr	+0.6%
Free Cash Flow	₹145 Cr	₹579 Cr	₹481 Cr	₹496 Cr	+50.5%

🟢 Revenue has grown at 5.9% a year over 3 years.

🟡 EBITDA has been broadly flat over 3 years (0.4% a year).

🔴 EBITDA Margin has fallen from 18.5% to 15.8% over 3 years (-2.7 pts).

🔴 PAT (Net Profit) has shrunk at 12.6% a year over 3 years.

🔴 EPS has shrunk at 12.6% a year over 3 years.

🔴 ROE has fallen from 31.4% to 13.9% over 3 years (-17.5 pts).

🔴 ROCE has fallen from 27.3% to 16.9% over 3 years (-10.4 pts).

🟡 Total Debt has been broadly flat over 3 years (0.6% a year).

🟢 Free Cash Flow has grown at 50.5% a year over 3 years.

Balance Sheet & Cash Flow — FY2026

Total Assets

₹4,127 Cr

Total Liabilities

₹2,350 Cr

Total Debt

₹1,142 Cr

Cash & Equivalents

₹238 Cr

Operating Cash Flow

₹810 Cr

Capex

-₹315 Cr

Shareholding (proxy)

Institutional Holding

16.6%

Insider Holding

76.2%

Corporate Actions

Dividend Rate

₹25

Ex-Dividend Date

15 Sept 2026

Analyst Consensus

Recommendations

4 Buy · 0 Hold · 1 Sell

Target Price (Mean)

₹5,781.6

+31.1% vs CMP

Target Range

₹4,498 – ₹7,360

Peer Comparison

Company	P/E	ROE
LARSEN & TOUBRO LTD.	30.1x	15.2%
SIEMENS LTD	88.8x	10.5%
ABB INDIA LIMITED	92.6x	19.1%

Recent News

2 positive1 mixed3 general

Blue Dart Express Ltd. 52 Week Low Streak Deepens Again

Univest, 16 Oct

Blue Dart Express (BSE:526612) Stock Forecast & Analyst Predictions

Simply Wall Street, 07 OctAnalyst view

🟡Mixed / dependsBroker commentary — an opinion about the price rather than new information about the business.

Blue Dart Express shares surge 7% after Q1 results. Here's why Nuvama retains Buy, raises target

The Economic Times, 03 AugAnalyst view

🟢Potentially positiveAn analyst opinion changing, which moves the price without changing the business.

Blue Dart Express Share Price Jumps 7% As Q1 Net Profit Rises Over 80%: Should You Buy?

NDTV Profit, 03 AugResults

🟢Potentially positiveReported improvement. Check whether it came from volume, price or a one-off item before treating it as a trend.

Blue Dart Express to raise domestic service prices by 9-12%

scanx.trade, 30 Sept

NCRTC, Blue Dart Explore Parcel Delivery via Namo Bharat

HDFC Sky, 07 Oct

Watch Items

Trading very close to its 52-week low — worth checking whether this reflects a temporary setback or a structural problem.
Cross-check against the company's latest quarterly filing / investor presentation before acting.
RSI is in oversold territory — could mean either a bargain or a stock still falling for good reason. Check the 'why' before assuming reversal.

DalalBaazaar Thesis

🟡Business QualityAdequate10.3/20

🟢Financial HealthStrong13.8/20

🔴GrowthWeak5.7/20

🔴ProfitabilityWeak6/15

🟡ValuationFair7.9/15

🟢RiskLow6.7/10

Unremarkable in both directions

A reasonable business at a reasonable price. Nothing here is alarming and nothing is compelling, which usually means the decision rests on things this data cannot see — the industry's direction, management's intent, and what else is available to you.

This thesis breaks if

✓EBITDA margin holds above 14%15.8%
✓Revenue growth stays above 4% a year5.9% CAGR
✓Free cash flow remains positive₹496 Cr
✓Debt / EBITDA stays below 2x1.2x
✓ROCE stays above 14%16.9%