Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited

Energy — Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · NSE

₹293.50−₹0.20 (−0.07%)

DalalBaazaar Score

66 / 100

🟢 Good

Verdict

REASONABLE

Risk

Low

Driven by short-term liabilities exceed short-term assets.

In simple words: Strong business and financial position, with both sales and profits growing well. Short-term liquidity is the main factor to watch.

Decision support, not a buy or sell call.

As of 18 Oct 2026, 7:46 pm

Understanding the Business

Company site ↗

The 60-second version of Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited — what it does, how it earns, and who it competes with, before any of the numbers below.

What does this company do?

Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited engages in refining crude oil and marketing petroleum products in India and internationally. It operates through two segments, Downstream Petroleum; and Exploration and Production of Hydrocarbons.

IndustryOil & Gas Refining & Marketing

SectorEnergy

Employees8,945

Annual revenue₹4.50 L Cr

How does it make money?

Turns over ₹4.50 L Cr a year. Of every ₹100 of sales, about ₹6 reaches shareholders as profit, with ₹11 left at the operating level before interest, tax and depreciation. Each of its 8,945 employees supports ₹50.34 Cr of revenue a year, the signature of a capital- or asset-led business.

Revenue / employee₹50.34 Cr

Who are its competitors?

The closest listed comparisons in its industry are RELIANCE INDUSTRIES LTD, OIL AND NATURAL GAS CORP., INDIAN OIL CORP LTD. These are the companies its valuation and returns are measured against elsewhere in this report.

Compared side by side in Peers ↓

What is its competitive advantage?Some evidence

ROCE of 26.4% is above what capital typically costs, which suggests some pricing power, though not yet the sustained, wide gap that marks a durable advantage.

Peer median ROE11.7%

What is the outlook?

15 analysts covering the stock expect revenue to shrink about 4.1% and earnings to grow about 75.6% in the year to 2028. These are estimates by people who follow the company, not a forecast for the wider industry.

Est. revenue growth-4.1%

Est. earnings growth+75.6%

Analysts15

What has been driving growth?

Profit has moved mainly because margins changed, not because the business sold much more. Over 3 years revenue moved -3% while net margin moved +1156% relative to itself. What this cannot tell you is which products, customers or geographies did the work — that lives in the segment disclosures of the annual report.

Revenue effect-3%

Margin effect+1156%

DalalBaazaar Score

66/ 100

Good

Weighted across six categories. Every point is explained below.

✗ Revenue has contracted at 1.2% a year
✓ Profit CAGR of 129.7% is above 15%

Quality vs. Valuation

Company Quality

64/ 100

Average

How good the business is, ignoring the share price entirely.

Valuation

81/ 100

Cheap

What you are being asked to pay, ignoring how good the business is.

A reasonable business at a reasonable price — neither the quality nor the valuation stands out in either direction.

Historical Valuation

Current P/E

7.3x

3Y Median

9.9x

40 monthly readings · mean 20.6x · range 3.8x–69.9x

Sector Median

6.4x

median of 3 sector peers

🟢Current valuation is approximately 26% below its 3y median of 9.9x. Cheaper than its own history, which is worth a reason too: the market may be pricing in something the backward-looking numbers do not show.

🟡Against its sector it is priced broadly in line with the peer median of 6.4x.

vs. its own history

Cheap

9.9x median over 40 months · -26%

vs. sector peers

Fair

6.4x median of 3 peers · +14%

vs. generic bands

Cheap

Below 15x

EV/EBITDA

3.7x

PEG

0.06

What's Good / What's Bad

🟢 What's Going Well7

Margins are improving
EBITDA margin is up from 3.4% to 10.8% over 3 years.
Debt is being paid down
Total debt is down 22% over 3 years.
Cash generation is improving
Free cash flow is up 700% over 3 years.
Return on equity is rising
ROE has improved from 4.0% to 25.8%.
Return on capital is rising
ROCE has improved from 6.0% to 26.4%.
High return on capital employed
ROCE of 26.4% is the mark of a business that converts capital into profit efficiently.
Consistently profitable
Profitable in every one of the last 4 reported years.

🔴 What Needs Attention0

Nothing stands out as clearly deteriorating on the years of data available.

Red Flags

2 items require attention · 2 watch

🟡Inventory building faster than salesFinancial
Inventory up 40% against revenue up -3% — stock may not be moving.
🟡Short-term liquidity is tightFinancial
Current ratio of 0.79 — near-term obligations exceed near-term assets.

Investment Thesis

🟢 Bull CaseWhat could make this work?

Capital compounds at a high rate
ROCE of 26.4% means each rupee reinvested earns well above what capital costs. If the company can keep deploying at this rate, growth creates value rather than just consuming cash.
Margin expansion has further to run
EBITDA margin has risen from 3.4% to 10.8%. If that holds, profit compounds faster than sales and today's multiple looks cheaper in hindsight than it does now.
Deleveraging frees up earnings
Debt is down 22% over 3 years. Every rupee of interest not paid drops to the bottom line, so profit can grow even if revenue does not.
Priced below its own history
The stock trades 26% below its own median multiple. If the business performs as it has and simply re-rates back to normal, that gap is return on its own.
Earnings have proved durable
Profitable in every one of the last 4 reported years. Consistency lowers the risk that any single bad year is structural rather than cyclical.

🔴 Bear CaseWhat could go wrong?

Earnings are hard to forecast
Profit has swung sharply from year to year, so any single year — good or bad — is a weak guide to the next. Cyclical earnings deserve lower multiples for that reason.

🟡 Key Things to WatchMeasurable tripwires, set against where this company stands today

1EBITDA margin holds above 9%✓ 10.8%
Two points below today's level — enough room for noise, tight enough to catch real compression.
2Free cash flow remains positive✓ ₹31,344 Cr
Profit that never becomes cash eventually stops being profit.
3Debt / EBITDA stays below 2x✓ 1.1x
The ratio lenders write covenants against; it survives a small or negative equity base, unlike Debt/Equity.
4ROCE stays above 23%✓ 26.4%
Falling returns on capital are usually competition arriving, and show up here before they reach the margin.
5Valuation vs its own median of 9.9x✓ 7.3x today
A re-rating above its own history needs a reason; without one it is just a higher price.

Investment Checklist

9 / 12 checks passed

✓ Strong return on equity (ROE ≥ 15%)
✓ Strong return on capital employed (ROCE ≥ 15%)
✗ Healthy net margin (≥ 10%)
✓ Generates positive free cash flow
✓ Manageable leverage (Debt/Equity < 1.0)
✗ Adequate short-term liquidity (Current Ratio ≥ 1.0)
✓ Revenue growing year-over-year
✓ Profit growing year-over-year
✓ Not trading at an extreme valuation (P/E < 40x)
✓ Not buying right at the 52-week high
✓ Analyst consensus isn't majority-sell
✗ Short-term technical trend isn't bearish

Price history

Quick Metrics

11 good · 0 neutral · 0 weak

Market Cap

₹1.27 L Cr

Large Cap

Large, widely-covered business — typically the steadiest of the bands

P/E (Trailing)

7.3x

Cheap

Cheap against the generic band

P/B Ratio

1.25x

Reasonable

Reasonable against the company's book value

EPS (TTM)

₹40.09

Profitable

Profitable on a per-share basis

ROE

25.8%

Strong

Strong capital efficiency

ROCE

26.4%

Strong

Earns comfortably above its likely cost of capital

Debt/Equity

0.54x

Low

Conservative leverage

Revenue Growth (YoY)

34.4%

Healthy

Healthy top-line growth

Profit Growth (YoY)

93.8%

Healthy

Profits growing at a healthy clip

Dividend Yield

6.81%

Healthy

Meaningful cash return while you hold the stock

Free Cash Flow

₹31,344 Cr

Cash generative

Generates cash even after funding its capex

More Metrics

P/E (Forward)

7.6x

Flat

At or above the trailing multiple — no earnings uplift is being priced in

Operating Margin

-4.0%

Weak

Thin margins leave little room for error

Net Margin

3.5%

Average

Average bottom-line conversion

Current Ratio

0.79

Tight

Tight short-term liquidity

Beta (vs Nifty)

0.86

Market-like

Moves roughly in line with the market

52W Range Position

22%

Mid-range

Technical Snapshot

SMA 20 / SMA 50

299.7 / 308.0

Bearish alignment (short < long)

Price vs SMA 200

Below

Long-term downtrend

RSI (14)

35.4

Neutral momentum

Financial Trend (4-Year)

Metric	FY23	FY24	FY25	FY26	3Y CAGR
Revenue	₹4.66 L Cr	₹4.47 L Cr	₹4.39 L Cr	₹4.50 L Cr	-1.2%
EBITDA	₹15,629 Cr	₹47,355 Cr	₹29,437 Cr	₹48,468 Cr	+45.8%
EBITDA Margin	3.4%	10.6%	6.7%	10.8%	—
PAT (Net Profit)	₹2,131 Cr	₹26,859 Cr	₹13,337 Cr	₹25,843 Cr	+129.7%
EPS	₹5.01	₹63.04	₹31.21	₹60.49	+129.5%
ROE	4.0%	35.5%	16.4%	25.8%	—
ROCE	6.0%	33.2%	17.0%	26.4%	—
Total Debt	₹69,376 Cr	₹54,599 Cr	₹61,101 Cr	₹54,424 Cr	-7.8%
Free Cash Flow	₹3,917 Cr	₹26,391 Cr	₹8,535 Cr	₹31,344 Cr	+100.0%

🟡 Revenue has been broadly flat over 3 years (-1.2% a year).

🟢 EBITDA has grown at 45.8% a year over 3 years.

🟢 EBITDA Margin has risen from 3.4% to 10.8% over 3 years (+7.4 pts).

🟢 PAT (Net Profit) has grown at 129.7% a year over 3 years.

🟢 EPS has grown at 129.5% a year over 3 years.

🟢 ROE has risen from 4.0% to 25.8% over 3 years (+21.8 pts).

🟢 ROCE has risen from 6.0% to 26.4% over 3 years (+20.4 pts).

🟢 Total Debt has shrunk at 7.8% a year over 3 years.

🟢 Free Cash Flow has grown at 100.0% a year over 3 years.

Balance Sheet & Cash Flow — FY2026

Total Assets

₹2.49 L Cr

Total Liabilities

₹1.48 L Cr

Cash & Equivalents

₹320 Cr

Operating Cash Flow

₹50,769 Cr

Capex

-₹19,425 Cr

Shareholding (proxy)

Institutional Holding

28.5%

Insider Holding

56.7%

Corporate Actions

Next Earnings

23 Oct 2026

Dividend Rate

₹20

Ex-Dividend Date

02 Feb 2026

Analyst Consensus

Recommendations

17 Buy · 7 Hold · 7 Sell

Target Price (Mean)

₹347.61

+18.4% vs CMP

Target Range

₹249 – ₹490

Peer Comparison

Company	P/E	ROE
RELIANCE INDUSTRIES LTD	21.9x	8.3%
OIL AND NATURAL GAS CORP.	6.4x	11.7%
INDIAN OIL CORP LTD	5.3x	15.4%

Recent News

3 mixed3 general

BPCL Share Price

Upstox, 16 Oct

Bharat Petroleum (NSEI:BPCL) Stock Forecast & Analyst Predictions

Simply Wall Street, 14 OctAnalyst view

🟡Mixed / dependsBroker commentary — an opinion about the price rather than new information about the business.

Is Bharat Petroleum Corporation the Best Stock in Its Sector? A Look at the Numbers

Univest, 12 Oct

Crude oil prices above $100 a barrel: Why HPCL, IOCL and BPCL could face earnings pressure, experts decode

Livemint, 14 OctResults

🟡Mixed / dependsA results event. The figures on this page update once the new statements reach the data feed, which usually lags the announcement.

Chennai Petroleum Corporation Ltd Share/Stock Price Live Today | The HinduBusinessLine

BusinessLine, 14 Oct

Bharat Petroleum Share Price Falls; Key Metrics to Watch

Univest, 08 OctPrice move

🟡Mixed / dependsA price move rather than a change in the business. If the figures on this page have not moved, the fall is either an opportunity or news they have yet to catch up with.

Watch Items

Cross-check against the company's latest quarterly filing / investor presentation before acting.

DalalBaazaar Thesis

StrongFinancial Health · Profitability · Valuation

MiddlingBusiness Quality · Growth · Risk

Points for each in the Score ↑

Unremarkable in both directions

A reasonable business at a reasonable price. Nothing here is alarming and nothing is compelling, which usually means the decision rests on things this data cannot see — the industry's direction, management's intent, and what else is available to you.

All 5 tripwires holding · see Key things to watch ↑