Coal India Limited

Energy — Thermal Coal · NSE

₹417.20−₹0.80 (−0.19%)

DalalBaazaar Score

68 / 100

🟢 Good

Verdict

REASONABLE

Risk

Low

No individual risk factor stands out on this snapshot.

In simple words: Strong business and financial position, with modest growth. Nothing obvious stands out as stretched — the usual checks on business quality and management still apply.

Decision support, not a buy or sell call.

As of 18 Oct 2026, 7:03 pm

Understanding the Business

Company site ↗

The 60-second version of Coal India Limited — what it does, how it earns, and who it competes with, before any of the numbers below.

What does this company do?

Coal India Limited, together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells coal and coal products in India.

IndustryThermal Coal

SectorEnergy

Employees2,12,066

Annual revenue₹1.66 L Cr

How does it make money?

Turns over ₹1.66 L Cr a year. Of every ₹100 of sales, about ₹19 reaches shareholders as profit, with ₹32 left at the operating level before interest, tax and depreciation. Each of its 2,12,066 employees supports ₹78.5 lakh of revenue a year, the signature of a people-led business.

Revenue / employee₹78.5 lakh

Who are its competitors?

The closest listed comparisons in its industry are RELIANCE INDUSTRIES LTD, OIL AND NATURAL GAS CORP., BHARAT PETROLEUM CORP LT, INDIAN OIL CORP LTD. These are the companies its valuation and returns are measured against elsewhere in this report.

Compared side by side in Peers ↓

What is its competitive advantage?Some evidence

ROCE of 19.6% is above what capital typically costs, which suggests some pricing power, though not yet the sustained, wide gap that marks a durable advantage.

Peer median ROE15.4%

What is the outlook?

23 analysts covering the stock expect revenue to grow about 4.5% and earnings to grow about 2.0% in the year to 2028. These are estimates by people who follow the company, not a forecast for the wider industry.

Est. revenue growth+4.5%

Est. earnings growth+2.0%

Analysts23

What has been driving growth?

Sales and margins have both contributed to where profit is now. Over 3 years revenue moved +31% while net margin moved -25% relative to itself. What this cannot tell you is which products, customers or geographies did the work — that lives in the segment disclosures of the annual report.

Revenue effect+31%

Margin effect-25%

DalalBaazaar Score

68/ 100

Good

Weighted across six categories. Every point is explained below.

• Revenue CAGR of 9.3% is steady
✗ Profit has declined at 0.7% a year
✗ Profit is compounding slower than revenue — margins are being squeezed as the business grows

Quality vs. Valuation

Company Quality

65/ 100

Good

How good the business is, ignoring the share price entirely.

Valuation

63/ 100

Fair

What you are being asked to pay, ignoring how good the business is.

A reasonable business at a reasonable price — neither the quality nor the valuation stands out in either direction.

Historical Valuation

Current P/E

8.2x

3Y Median

7.4x

40 monthly readings · mean 7.4x · range 4.5x–10.1x

Sector Median

6.9x

median of 4 sector peers

⚠️Current valuation is approximately 11% above its 3y median of 7.4x. Paying more than usual needs a reason — faster growth, a better balance sheet, or a re-rating you believe in.

⚠️Against its sector it trades 20% above the peer median of 6.9x.

vs. its own history

Fair

7.4x median over 40 months · +11%

vs. sector peers

Fair

6.9x median of 4 peers · +20%

vs. generic bands

Cheap

Below 15x

EV/EBITDA

5.0x

PEG

6.87

What's Good / What's Bad

🟢 What's Going Well3

Cash generation is improving
Free cash flow is up 50% over 3 years.
Very low debt
Debt/Equity of 0.12x leaves the balance sheet with plenty of headroom.
Consistently profitable
Profitable in every one of the last 4 reported years.

🔴 What Needs Attention2

Return on equity is falling
ROE has dropped from 52.2% to 26.1% — each rupee of shareholder capital earns less than it did.
Return on capital is falling
ROCE has declined from 28.5% to 19.6% — often a sign of competition or overexpansion.

Red Flags

3 items require attention · 3 high

🔴Debt has risen sharplyFinancial
Total debt is up 225% over 3 years, from ₹4,331 Cr to ₹14,072 Cr.
🔴Significant margin compressionFinancial
EBITDA margin has fallen 8.0 points, from 39.7% to 31.7%.
🔴Inventory building faster than salesFinancial
Inventory up 92% against revenue up 31% — stock may not be moving.

Investment Thesis

🟢 Bull CaseWhat could make this work?

Capital compounds at a high rate
ROCE of 19.6% means each rupee reinvested earns well above what capital costs. If the company can keep deploying at this rate, growth creates value rather than just consuming cash.
Self-funding with balance-sheet headroom
Positive free cash flow of ₹30,715 Cr alongside low debt means growth, buybacks or dividends need no outside money — and a downturn can be absorbed rather than refinanced.
Earnings have proved durable
Profitable in every one of the last 4 reported years. Consistency lowers the risk that any single bad year is structural rather than cyclical.

🔴 Bear CaseWhat could go wrong?

Margins are being competed away
EBITDA margin has fallen from 39.7% to 31.7%. If the trend continues, profit falls even on flat sales — and margin decline rarely reverses quickly.
Returns on shareholder capital are falling
ROE has dropped from 52.2% to 26.1%. Each rupee of equity earns less than it did, so profit growth increasingly depends on raising more capital rather than on the existing base working harder.
Several serious flags at once
3 high-severity checks triggered. Individually each has an explanation; together they raise the chance that something structural is wrong rather than a one-off.

🟡 Key Things to WatchMeasurable tripwires, set against where this company stands today

1EBITDA margin holds above 30%✓ 31.7%
Two points below today's level — enough room for noise, tight enough to catch real compression.
2Revenue growth stays above 7% a year✓ 9.3% CAGR
Latest reported year was 45.1%. The bar is set below the established compounding rate, so ordinary variation does not trip it.
3Free cash flow remains positive✓ ₹30,715 Cr
Profit that never becomes cash eventually stops being profit.
4Debt / EBITDA stays below 2x✓ 0.3x
The ratio lenders write covenants against; it survives a small or negative equity base, unlike Debt/Equity.
5ROCE stays above 17%✓ 19.6%
Falling returns on capital are usually competition arriving, and show up here before they reach the margin.

Investment Checklist

12 / 12 checks passed

✓ Strong return on equity (ROE ≥ 15%)
✓ Strong return on capital employed (ROCE ≥ 15%)
✓ Healthy net margin (≥ 10%)
✓ Generates positive free cash flow
✓ Manageable leverage (Debt/Equity < 1.0)
✓ Adequate short-term liquidity (Current Ratio ≥ 1.0)
✓ Revenue growing year-over-year
✓ Profit growing year-over-year
✓ Not trading at an extreme valuation (P/E < 40x)
✓ Not buying right at the 52-week high
✓ Analyst consensus isn't majority-sell
✓ Short-term technical trend isn't bearish

Price history

Quick Metrics

9 good · 2 neutral · 0 weak

Market Cap

₹2.57 L Cr

Large Cap

Large, widely-covered business — typically the steadiest of the bands

P/E (Trailing)

8.2x

Cheap

Cheap against the generic band

P/B Ratio

2.16x

Fair

Moderate premium to the company's book value

EPS (TTM)

₹50.63

Profitable

Profitable on a per-share basis

ROE

26.1%

Strong

Strong capital efficiency

ROCE

19.6%

Strong

Earns comfortably above its likely cost of capital

Debt/Equity

0.12x

Low

Conservative leverage

Revenue Growth (YoY)

45.1%

Healthy

Healthy top-line growth

Profit Growth (YoY)

1.2%

Modest

Slow profit growth

Dividend Yield

6.35%

Healthy

Meaningful cash return while you hold the stock

Free Cash Flow

₹30,715 Cr

Cash generative

Generates cash even after funding its capex

More Metrics

P/E (Forward)

7.3x

Improving

Below the trailing multiple — the street expects earnings to grow into the price

Operating Margin

21.1%

Good

Healthy core-business profitability

Net Margin

18.1%

Good

Strong bottom-line conversion

Current Ratio

1.86

Comfortable

Healthy short-term liquidity

Beta (vs Nifty)

0.02

Defensive

Steadier than the market

52W Range Position

39%

Mid-range

Technical Snapshot

SMA 20 / SMA 50

417.8 / 414.4

Bullish alignment (short > long)

Price vs SMA 200

Below

Long-term downtrend

RSI (14)

42.6

Neutral momentum

Financial Trend (4-Year)

Metric	FY23	FY24	FY25	FY26	3Y CAGR
Revenue	₹1.27 L Cr	₹1.27 L Cr	₹1.66 L Cr	₹1.66 L Cr	+9.3%
EBITDA	₹50,558 Cr	₹55,939 Cr	₹56,808 Cr	₹52,684 Cr	+1.4%
EBITDA Margin	39.7%	44.0%	34.2%	31.7%	—
PAT (Net Profit)	₹31,763 Cr	₹37,402 Cr	₹35,506 Cr	₹31,094 Cr	-0.7%
EPS	₹51.54	₹60.69	₹57.61	₹50.46	-0.7%
ROE	52.2%	43.9%	34.9%	26.1%	—
ROCE	28.5%	27.7%	24.1%	19.6%	—
Total Debt	₹4,331 Cr	₹6,523 Cr	₹9,146 Cr	₹14,072 Cr	+48.1%
Free Cash Flow	₹20,416 Cr	₹1,282 Cr	₹15,905 Cr	₹30,715 Cr	+14.6%

🟢 Revenue has grown at 9.3% a year over 3 years.

🟡 EBITDA has been broadly flat over 3 years (1.4% a year).

🔴 EBITDA Margin has fallen from 39.7% to 31.7% over 3 years (-8.0 pts).

🟡 PAT (Net Profit) has been broadly flat over 3 years (-0.7% a year).

🟡 EPS has been broadly flat over 3 years (-0.7% a year).

🔴 ROE has fallen from 52.2% to 26.1% over 3 years (-26.1 pts).

🔴 ROCE has fallen from 28.5% to 19.6% over 3 years (-8.9 pts).

🔴 Total Debt has grown at 48.1% a year over 3 years.

🟢 Free Cash Flow has grown at 14.6% a year over 3 years.

Balance Sheet & Cash Flow — FY2026

Total Assets

₹2.86 L Cr

Total Liabilities

₹1.65 L Cr

Cash & Equivalents

₹8,620 Cr

Operating Cash Flow

₹43,215 Cr

Capex

-₹12,500 Cr

Shareholding (proxy)

Institutional Holding

28.1%

Insider Holding

61.1%

Corporate Actions

Next Earnings

29 Oct 2026

Dividend Rate

₹26.5

Ex-Dividend Date

04 Sept 2026

Analyst Consensus

Recommendations

18 Buy · 4 Hold · 3 Sell

Target Price (Mean)

₹471.67

+13.1% vs CMP

Target Range

₹370 – ₹550

Peer Comparison

Company	P/E	ROE
RELIANCE INDUSTRIES LTD	21.9x	8.3%
OIL AND NATURAL GAS CORP.	6.4x	11.7%
BHARAT PETROLEUM CORP LT	7.3x	17.1%
INDIAN OIL CORP LTD	5.3x	15.4%

Recent News

2 positive4 general

Here's why Coal India share price could go up to ₹500 as per Jefferies

CNBC TV18, 25 Sept

Here's why Coal India share price could go up to ₹500 as per Jefferies - CNBC TV18

LinkedIn, 25 Sept

BHARAT COKING COAL LTD Share Price - Live NSE: BHARATCOAL Stock Price & Chart

Upstox, 15 Oct

Coal India shares: Brokerage upgrades stock to 'Buy'; Q2 volume, MCL listing likely to boost outlook, target price raised

Business Today, 05 OctAnalyst view

🟢Potentially positiveAn analyst opinion changing, which moves the price without changing the business.

Income Investors Should Know That Coal India Limited (NSE:COALINDIA) Goes Ex-Dividend Soon

Simply Wall Street, 31 AugCapital return

🟢Potentially positiveCash or shares returned to holders. A buyback is only good value if the shares were cheap when bought.

BCCL Hikes Raw Coking Coal Prices by Up to 14%

HDFC Sky, 14 Oct

Watch Items

Cross-check against the company's latest quarterly filing / investor presentation before acting.

DalalBaazaar Thesis

StrongBusiness Quality · Financial Health · Profitability · Valuation · Risk

WeakGrowth

Points for each in the Score ↑

Good business at a fair price

A sound business at a reasonable valuation. Suitable for a long-term holding, with the valuation and the direction of margins worth watching rather than the business itself. 3 high-severity red flags sit above this conclusion and should be read first.

All 5 tripwires holding · see Key things to watch ↑