Confidence Petroleum India Limited

Energy — Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · NSE

₹81.78+₹0.52 (+0.64%)

DalalBaazaar Score

54 / 100

🟡 Moderate

Verdict

NEUTRAL

Risk

Moderate

Driven by micro-cap size, which brings thin liquidity.

In simple words: The business is earning a fairly low return on the money invested in it, with both sales and profits growing well. Thin profit margins are the main factor to watch.

Decision support, not a buy or sell call.

As of 18 Oct 2026, 6:58 pm

Understanding the Business

Company site ↗

The 60-second version of Confidence Petroleum India Limited — what it does, how it earns, and who it competes with, before any of the numbers below.

What does this company do?

Confidence Petroleum India Limited manufactures and sells LPG cylinders in India and internationally. The company is involved in the LPG bulk marketing business.

IndustryOil & Gas Refining & Marketing

SectorEnergy

Employees815

Annual revenue₹4,705 Cr

How does it make money?

Turns over ₹4,705 Cr a year. Of every ₹100 of sales, about ₹2 reaches shareholders as profit, with ₹8 left at the operating level before interest, tax and depreciation. Each of its 815 employees supports ₹5.77 Cr of revenue a year, the signature of a capital- or asset-led business.

Revenue / employee₹5.77 Cr

Who are its competitors?

The closest listed comparisons in its industry are RELIANCE INDUSTRIES LTD, OIL AND NATURAL GAS CORP., BHARAT PETROLEUM CORP LT, INDIAN OIL CORP LTD. These are the companies its valuation and returns are measured against elsewhere in this report.

Compared side by side in Peers ↓

What is its competitive advantage?Little sign of one

Returns on capital of 9.7% are at or below what the capital likely costs. That is the financial pattern of a business competing largely on price, where advantage has to come from execution rather than position.

Peer median ROE15.4%

What has been driving growth?

Growth has come mainly from selling more, rather than from keeping more of each sale. Over 3 years revenue moved +113% while net margin moved -46% relative to itself. What this cannot tell you is which products, customers or geographies did the work — that lives in the segment disclosures of the annual report.

Revenue effect+113%

Margin effect-46%

DalalBaazaar Score

54/ 100

Moderate

Weighted across six categories. Every point is explained below.

✗ ROE of 6.5% is weak
✗ ROE has fallen by 3.5 points over the period

Quality vs. Valuation

Company Quality

50/ 100

Average

How good the business is, ignoring the share price entirely.

Valuation

52/ 100

Fair

What you are being asked to pay, ignoring how good the business is.

A reasonable business at a reasonable price — neither the quality nor the valuation stands out in either direction.

Historical Valuation

Current P/E

20.2x

3Y Median

26.1x

40 monthly readings · mean 24.0x · range 12.2x–38.6x

Sector Median

6.9x

median of 4 sector peers

🟢Current valuation is approximately 23% below its 3y median of 26.1x. Cheaper than its own history, which is worth a reason too: the market may be pricing in something the backward-looking numbers do not show.

⚠️Against its sector it trades 194% above the peer median of 6.9x.

vs. its own history

Cheap

26.1x median over 40 months · -23%

vs. sector peers

Expensive

6.9x median of 4 peers · +194%

vs. generic bands

Fair

15x–35x

EV/EBITDA

9.2x

PEG

4.30

What's Good / What's Bad

🟢 What's Going Well2

Cash flow has turned positive
Free cash flow moved from negative to positive over 3 years.
Consistently profitable
Profitable in every one of the last 4 reported years.

🔴 What Needs Attention1

Return on equity is falling
ROE has dropped from 10.0% to 6.5% — each rupee of shareholder capital earns less than it did.

Red Flags

2 items require attention · 1 high · 1 watch

🔴Debt has risen sharplyFinancial
Total debt is up 84% over 3 years, from ₹413 Cr to ₹761 Cr.
🟡Margins are compressingFinancial
EBITDA margin is down 2.1 points over 3 years.

Investment Thesis

🟢 Bull CaseWhat could make this work?

Priced below its own history
The stock trades 23% below its own median multiple. If the business performs as it has and simply re-rates back to normal, that gap is return on its own.
Self-funding with balance-sheet headroom
Positive free cash flow of ₹283 Cr alongside low debt means growth, buybacks or dividends need no outside money — and a downturn can be absorbed rather than refinanced.
Earnings have proved durable
Profitable in every one of the last 4 reported years. Consistency lowers the risk that any single bad year is structural rather than cyclical.

🔴 Bear CaseWhat could go wrong?

Margins are being competed away
EBITDA margin has fallen from 10.0% to 7.9%. If the trend continues, profit falls even on flat sales — and margin decline rarely reverses quickly.
A premium to the sector to defend
It trades 194% above the peer median. That premium needs a reason that persists, or it closes.
Returns on shareholder capital are falling
ROE has dropped from 10.0% to 6.5%. Each rupee of equity earns less than it did, so profit growth increasingly depends on raising more capital rather than on the existing base working harder.
Size brings its own risk
Micro Cap businesses are thinly traded, so exits are harder in a falling market and single events move the price more than they would for a larger company.

🟡 Key Things to WatchMeasurable tripwires, set against where this company stands today

1Revenue growth stays above 22% a year✓ 28.7% CAGR
Latest reported year was 116.6%. The bar is set below the established compounding rate, so ordinary variation does not trip it.
2EBITDA margin holds above 6%✓ 7.9%
Two points below today's level — enough room for noise, tight enough to catch real compression.
3Debt / EBITDA stays below 2x✗ 2.0x
The ratio lenders write covenants against; it survives a small or negative equity base, unlike Debt/Equity.
4Interest cover stays above 3x✗ 2.5x
How much operating profit can fall before interest stops being comfortably covered.
5Free cash flow remains positive✓ ₹283 Cr
Profit that never becomes cash eventually stops being profit.

Investment Checklist

8 / 11 checks passed

✗ Strong return on equity (ROE ≥ 15%)
✗ Strong return on capital employed (ROCE ≥ 15%)
✗ Healthy net margin (≥ 10%)
✓ Generates positive free cash flow
✓ Manageable leverage (Debt/Equity < 1.0)
✓ Adequate short-term liquidity (Current Ratio ≥ 1.0)
✓ Revenue growing year-over-year
✓ Profit growing year-over-year
✓ Not trading at an extreme valuation (P/E < 40x)
✓ Not buying right at the 52-week high
✓ Short-term technical trend isn't bearish

Price history

Quick Metrics

5 good · 5 neutral · 1 weak

Market Cap

₹2,717 Cr

Micro Cap

Smaller company — thin liquidity and deep drawdowns are normal here

P/E (Trailing)

20.2x

Fair

Fairly valued against the generic band

P/B Ratio

1.92x

Fair

Moderate premium to the company's book value

EPS (TTM)

₹4.05

Profitable

Profitable on a per-share basis

ROE

6.5%

Weak

Weak capital efficiency

ROCE

9.7%

Moderate

Moderate return on the capital in the business

Debt/Equity

0.49x

Low

Conservative leverage

Revenue Growth (YoY)

116.6%

Healthy

Healthy top-line growth

Profit Growth (YoY)

204.9%

Healthy

Profits growing at a healthy clip

Dividend Yield

0.12%

Modest

Small cash return — most of the return has to come from the price

Free Cash Flow

₹283 Cr

Cash generative

Generates cash even after funding its capex

More Metrics

Operating Margin

4.2%

Weak

Thin margins leave little room for error

Net Margin

2.2%

Weak

Very little revenue reaches the bottom line

Current Ratio

2.16

Comfortable

Healthy short-term liquidity

Beta (vs Nifty)

0.63

Defensive

Steadier than the market

52W Range Position

82%

Mid-range

Technical Snapshot

SMA 20 / SMA 50

86.4 / 82.4

Bullish alignment (short > long)

Price vs SMA 200

Above

Long-term uptrend

RSI (14)

38.4

Neutral momentum

Financial Trend (4-Year)

Metric	FY23	FY24	FY25	FY26	3Y CAGR
Revenue	₹2,205 Cr	₹2,698 Cr	₹3,146 Cr	₹4,705 Cr	+28.7%
EBITDA	₹221 Cr	₹368 Cr	₹364 Cr	₹373 Cr	+19.1%
EBITDA Margin	10.0%	13.7%	11.6%	7.9%	—
PAT (Net Profit)	₹81 Cr	₹101 Cr	₹86 Cr	₹93 Cr	+4.7%
EPS	₹2.8	₹3.3	₹2.6	₹2.8	+0.0%
ROE	10.0%	8.6%	6.5%	6.5%	—
ROCE	11.3%	12.4%	10.1%	9.7%	—
Total Debt	₹413 Cr	₹633 Cr	₹765 Cr	₹761 Cr	+22.6%
Free Cash Flow	-₹125 Cr	₹18 Cr	-₹267 Cr	₹283 Cr	—

🟢 Revenue has grown at 28.7% a year over 3 years.

🟢 EBITDA has grown at 19.1% a year over 3 years.

🔴 EBITDA Margin has fallen from 10.0% to 7.9% over 3 years (-2.1 pts).

🟢 PAT (Net Profit) has grown at 4.7% a year over 3 years.

🟡 EPS has been broadly flat over 3 years (0.0% a year).

🔴 ROE has fallen from 10.0% to 6.5% over 3 years (-3.5 pts).

🔴 ROCE has fallen from 11.3% to 9.7% over 3 years (-1.6 pts).

🔴 Total Debt has grown at 22.6% a year over 3 years.

🟢 Free Cash Flow has turned positive, from -₹125 Cr to ₹283 Cr.

Balance Sheet & Cash Flow — FY2026

Total Assets

₹2,736 Cr

Total Liabilities

₹1,195 Cr

Cash & Equivalents

₹55 Cr

Operating Cash Flow

₹400 Cr

Capex

-₹117 Cr

Shareholding (proxy)

Institutional Holding

0.3%

Insider Holding

69.5%

Corporate Actions

Dividend Rate

₹0.1

Ex-Dividend Date

23 Sept 2026

Peer Comparison

Company	P/E	ROE
RELIANCE INDUSTRIES LTD	21.9x	8.3%
OIL AND NATURAL GAS CORP.	6.4x	11.7%
BHARAT PETROLEUM CORP LT	7.3x	17.1%
INDIAN OIL CORP LTD	5.3x	15.4%

Recent News

1 positive2 mixed3 general

Confidence Petroleum India (NSE:CONFIPET) — LPG Infrastructure Explained

Kalkine India, 15 Oct

Confidence Petroleum India - 8 smallcap stocks turned multibaggers in 2026 after crashing over 40% in 2025

The Economic Times, 08 Oct

Confidence Petroleum shareholders approve all 11 resolutions at 32nd AGM

scanx.trade, 01 Oct

Confidence Petroleum India Share Price Target 2027 to 2030: Analy

Univest, 17 AugAnalyst view

🟡Mixed / dependsBroker commentary — an opinion about the price rather than new information about the business.

We Like Confidence Petroleum India's (NSE:CONFIPET) Earnings For More Than Just Statutory Profit

Simply Wall Street, 11 JunResults

🟡Mixed / dependsA results event. The figures on this page update once the new statements reach the data feed, which usually lags the announcement.

Confidence Petroleum India consolidated net profit rises 207.04% in the June 2026 quarter

Business Standard, 11 AugResults

🟢Potentially positiveReported improvement. Check whether it came from volume, price or a one-off item before treating it as a trend.

Watch Items

Cross-check against the company's latest quarterly filing / investor presentation before acting.

DalalBaazaar Thesis

StrongFinancial Health · Valuation

MiddlingGrowth · Risk

WeakBusiness Quality · Profitability

Points for each in the Score ↑

Unremarkable in both directions

A reasonable business at a reasonable price. Nothing here is alarming and nothing is compelling, which usually means the decision rests on things this data cannot see — the industry's direction, management's intent, and what else is available to you. 1 high-severity red flag sits above this conclusion and should be read first.

2 of 5 tripwires tripped — Debt / EBITDA stays below 2x; Interest cover stays above 3x · see Key things to watch ↑