Dodla Dairy Limited

Consumer Defensive — Food Distribution · NSE

₹1,004.50+₹6.90 (+0.69%)

DalalBaazaar Score

65 / 100

🟢 Good

Verdict

REASONABLE

Risk

High

Driven by high debt relative to equity, small-cap size, which brings sharper price swings, falling profits.

In simple words: Strong business and financial position, though profits are falling even as sales grow. Debt is the main factor to watch.

Decision support, not a buy or sell call.

As of 18 Oct 2026, 7:00 pm

Understanding the Business

Company site ↗

The 60-second version of Dodla Dairy Limited — what it does, how it earns, and who it competes with, before any of the numbers below.

What does this company do?

Dodla Dairy Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of milk and value-added dairy products in India and internationally.

IndustryFood Distribution

SectorConsumer Defensive

Employees3,159

Annual revenue₹4,123 Cr

How does it make money?

Turns over ₹4,123 Cr a year. Of every ₹100 of sales, about ₹6 reaches shareholders as profit, with ₹8 left at the operating level before interest, tax and depreciation. Each of its 3,159 employees supports ₹1.31 Cr of revenue a year, the signature of a capital- or asset-led business.

Revenue / employee₹1.31 Cr

Who are its competitors?

The closest listed comparisons in its industry are HINDUSTAN UNILEVER LTD., ITC LTD, NESTLE INDIA LIMITED, BRITANNIA INDUSTRIES LTD. These are the companies its valuation and returns are measured against elsewhere in this report.

Compared side by side in Peers ↓

What is its competitive advantage?Some evidence

ROCE of 15.9% is above what capital typically costs, which suggests some pricing power, though not yet the sustained, wide gap that marks a durable advantage.

Peer median ROE51.0%

What is the outlook?

4 analysts covering the stock expect revenue to grow about 13.9% and earnings to grow about 38.5% in the year to 2028. These are estimates by people who follow the company, not a forecast for the wider industry.

Est. revenue growth+13.9%

Est. earnings growth+38.5%

Analysts4

What has been driving growth?

Sales and margins have both contributed to where profit is now. Over 3 years revenue moved +47% while net margin moved +49% relative to itself. What this cannot tell you is which products, customers or geographies did the work — that lives in the segment disclosures of the annual report.

Revenue effect+47%

Margin effect+49%

DalalBaazaar Score

65/ 100

Good

Weighted across six categories. Every point is explained below.

✓ Beta of 0.39 — historically steadier than the index
✗ Small Cap: thinner liquidity and sharper drawdowns are normal
✗ High leverage magnifies any downturn in earnings

Quality vs. Valuation

Company Quality

67/ 100

Good

How good the business is, ignoring the share price entirely.

Valuation

73/ 100

Cheap

What you are being asked to pay, ignoring how good the business is.

A good business currently available at an undemanding price — the combination this framework is built to look for.

Historical Valuation

Current P/E

24.8x

3Y Median

37.4x

40 monthly readings · mean 36.6x · range 22.4x–58.6x

Sector Median

43.3x

median of 4 sector peers

🟢Current valuation is approximately 34% below its 3y median of 37.4x. Cheaper than its own history, which is worth a reason too: the market may be pricing in something the backward-looking numbers do not show.

🟢Against its sector it trades 43% below the peer median of 43.3x.

vs. its own history

Cheap

37.4x median over 40 months · -34%

vs. sector peers

Cheap

43.3x median of 4 peers · -43%

vs. generic bands

Fair

15x–35x

EV/EBITDA

17.9x

PEG

0.83

What's Good / What's Bad

🟢 What's Going Well3

Cash generation is improving
Free cash flow is up 154% over 3 years.
Return on equity is rising
ROE has improved from 12.6% to 15.9%.
Consistently profitable
Profitable in every one of the last 4 reported years.

🔴 What Needs Attention0

Nothing stands out as clearly deteriorating on the years of data available.

Red Flags

3 items require attention · 3 high

🔴Debt has risen sharplyFinancial
Total debt is up 76% over 3 years, from ₹32 Cr to ₹57 Cr.
🔴High leverageFinancial
Debt/Equity of 3.40x — earnings must service borrowings before shareholders see anything.
🔴Profit up while operating cash flow fallsFinancial
Reported profit rose but cash generated by operations declined — worth checking whether earnings are being supported by non-cash items or working capital.

Investment Thesis

🟢 Bull CaseWhat could make this work?

Priced below its own history
The stock trades 34% below its own median multiple. If the business performs as it has and simply re-rates back to normal, that gap is return on its own.
Cheaper than its peers
It trades 43% below the sector median. Either the market sees a problem the numbers do not show, or the discount closes.
Earnings have proved durable
Profitable in every one of the last 4 reported years. Consistency lowers the risk that any single bad year is structural rather than cyclical.

🔴 Bear CaseWhat could go wrong?

Leverage amplifies any setback
Debt/Equity of 3.40x. Interest is payable whether or not the business has a good year.
Size brings its own risk
Small Cap businesses are thinly traded, so exits are harder in a falling market and single events move the price more than they would for a larger company.
Several serious flags at once
3 high-severity checks triggered. Individually each has an explanation; together they raise the chance that something structural is wrong rather than a one-off.

🟡 Key Things to WatchMeasurable tripwires, set against where this company stands today

1Revenue growth stays above 10% a year✓ 13.6% CAGR
Latest reported year was 19.0%. The bar is set below the established compounding rate, so ordinary variation does not trip it.
2EBITDA margin holds above 6%✓ 8.2%
Two points below today's level — enough room for noise, tight enough to catch real compression.
3Free cash flow remains positive✓ ₹133 Cr
Profit that never becomes cash eventually stops being profit.
4Debt / EBITDA stays below 2x✓ 0.2x
The ratio lenders write covenants against; it survives a small or negative equity base, unlike Debt/Equity.
5ROCE stays above 13%✓ 15.9%
Falling returns on capital are usually competition arriving, and show up here before they reach the margin.

Investment Checklist

8 / 12 checks passed

✓ Strong return on equity (ROE ≥ 15%)
✓ Strong return on capital employed (ROCE ≥ 15%)
✗ Healthy net margin (≥ 10%)
✓ Generates positive free cash flow
✗ Manageable leverage (Debt/Equity < 1.0)
✓ Adequate short-term liquidity (Current Ratio ≥ 1.0)
✓ Revenue growing year-over-year
✗ Profit growing year-over-year
✓ Not trading at an extreme valuation (P/E < 40x)
✓ Not buying right at the 52-week high
✓ Analyst consensus isn't majority-sell
✗ Short-term technical trend isn't bearish

Price history

Quick Metrics

5 good · 4 neutral · 2 weak

Market Cap

₹6,060 Cr

Small Cap

Smaller company — thin liquidity and deep drawdowns are normal here

P/E (Trailing)

24.8x

Fair

Fairly valued against the generic band

P/B Ratio

3.62x

Fair

Moderate premium to the company's book value

EPS (TTM)

₹40.58

Profitable

Profitable on a per-share basis

ROE

15.9%

Strong

Strong capital efficiency

ROCE

15.9%

Strong

Earns comfortably above its likely cost of capital

Debt/Equity

3.40x

High

High leverage

Revenue Growth (YoY)

19.0%

Healthy

Healthy top-line growth

Profit Growth (YoY)

-35.3%

Falling

Profits are shrinking

Dividend Yield

0.50%

Modest

Small cash return — most of the return has to come from the price

Free Cash Flow

₹133 Cr

Cash generative

Generates cash even after funding its capex

More Metrics

P/E (Forward)

18.9x

Improving

Below the trailing multiple — the street expects earnings to grow into the price

Operating Margin

3.5%

Weak

Thin margins leave little room for error

Net Margin

5.7%

Average

Average bottom-line conversion

Current Ratio

2.44

Comfortable

Healthy short-term liquidity

Beta (vs Nifty)

0.39

Defensive

Steadier than the market

52W Range Position

10%

Near low

Near its 52-week low

Technical Snapshot

SMA 20 / SMA 50

1021.3 / 1059.1

Bearish alignment (short < long)

Price vs SMA 200

Below

Long-term downtrend

RSI (14)

35.4

Neutral momentum

Financial Trend (4-Year)

Metric	FY23	FY24	FY25	FY26	3Y CAGR
Revenue	₹2,810 Cr	₹3,124 Cr	₹3,718 Cr	₹4,123 Cr	+13.6%
EBITDA	₹208 Cr	₹308 Cr	₹396 Cr	₹338 Cr	+17.5%
EBITDA Margin	7.4%	9.9%	10.6%	8.2%	—
PAT (Net Profit)	₹122 Cr	₹167 Cr	₹260 Cr	₹267 Cr	+29.7%
EPS	₹20.39	₹27.75	₹43.27	₹44.26	+29.5%
ROE	12.6%	14.6%	18.5%	15.9%	—
ROCE	14.8%	20.2%	24.2%	15.9%	—
Total Debt	₹32 Cr	₹46 Cr	₹42 Cr	₹57 Cr	+20.8%
Free Cash Flow	₹52 Cr	-₹107 Cr	₹410 Cr	₹133 Cr	+36.4%

🟢 Revenue has grown at 13.6% a year over 3 years.

🟢 EBITDA has grown at 17.5% a year over 3 years.

🟡 EBITDA Margin has held roughly flat at 8.2% over 3 years.

🟢 PAT (Net Profit) has grown at 29.7% a year over 3 years.

🟢 EPS has grown at 29.5% a year over 3 years.

🟢 ROE has risen from 12.6% to 15.9% over 3 years (+3.4 pts).

🟢 ROCE has risen from 14.8% to 15.9% over 3 years (+1.1 pts).

🔴 Total Debt has grown at 20.8% a year over 3 years.

🟢 Free Cash Flow has grown at 36.4% a year over 3 years.

Balance Sheet & Cash Flow — FY2026

Total Assets

₹2,096 Cr

Total Liabilities

₹422 Cr

Cash & Equivalents

₹81 Cr

Operating Cash Flow

₹295 Cr

Capex

-₹162 Cr

Shareholding (proxy)

Institutional Holding

27.8%

Insider Holding

63.9%

Corporate Actions

Dividend Rate

₹5

Ex-Dividend Date

07 Jul 2026

Analyst Consensus

Recommendations

4 Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell

Target Price (Mean)

₹1,266.5

+26.1% vs CMP

Target Range

₹1,118 – ₹1,360

Peer Comparison

Company	P/E	ROE
HINDUSTAN UNILEVER LTD.	42.5x	21.5%
ITC LTD	16.6x	27.4%
NESTLE INDIA LIMITED	59.8x	79.9%
BRITANNIA INDUSTRIES LTD	44.1x	51.0%

Recent News

1 positive4 mixed1 general

Dairy Stocks 2026: Dodla Dairy, Heritage Foods, Parag Milk Foods

Univest, 15 Oct

Is It Smart To Buy Dodla Dairy Limited (NSE:DODLA) Before It Goes Ex-Dividend?

Simply Wall Street, 03 JulCapital return

🟢Potentially positiveCash or shares returned to holders. A buyback is only good value if the shares were cheap when bought.

Dodla Dairy's Strong Demand Outlook Keeps Systematix Bullish — Check Target Price, Upside

NDTV Profit, 24 SeptAnalyst view

🟡Mixed / dependsBroker commentary — an opinion about the price rather than new information about the business.

Dodla Dairy (NSE:DODLA) Share Decline ~7.58% | Dairy Sector Analysis

Kalkine India, 19 MarPrice move

🟡Mixed / dependsA price move rather than a change in the business. If the figures on this page have not moved, the fall is either an opportunity or news they have yet to catch up with.

Dodla Dairy Q1 net profit slips, margins contract to 5.4%

CNBC TV18, 25 JulResults

🟡Mixed / dependsA results event. The figures on this page update once the new statements reach the data feed, which usually lags the announcement.

Dodla Dairy board approves acquisition of 2% stake in Sid Farm

Business Standard, 25 JulM&A

🟡Mixed / dependsAcquisitions change the balance sheet before they change the earnings. Look at what was paid, how it was funded, and whether debt rose.

Watch Items

Trading very close to its 52-week low — worth checking whether this reflects a temporary setback or a structural problem.
Cross-check against the company's latest quarterly filing / investor presentation before acting.

DalalBaazaar Thesis

StrongGrowth · Profitability · Valuation

MiddlingBusiness Quality · Financial Health · Risk

Points for each in the Score ↑

Attractive on both counts

A good business currently available at an undemanding price — the combination this framework exists to look for. The work left is qualitative: whether the advantage the numbers imply is one you can identify and expect to last. 3 high-severity red flags sit above this conclusion and should be read first.

All 5 tripwires holding · see Key things to watch ↑