Gujarat Mineral Development Corporation Limited

Energy — Thermal Coal · NSE

₹471.00+₹3.50 (+0.75%)

DalalBaazaar Score

50 / 100

🟡 Moderate

Verdict

CAUTION

Risk

High

Driven by high debt relative to equity, negative free cash flow, small-cap size, which brings sharper price swings.

In simple words: Strong business and financial position, though profits are falling even as sales grow. Debt is the main factor to watch.

Decision support, not a buy or sell call.

As of 18 Oct 2026, 6:02 pm

Caution warranted. Multiple fundamental metrics — flagged in red below — point to either valuation stretch, leverage risk, or weakening profitability. This doesn't mean avoid the stock outright, but it does mean the burden of proof is on the growth story to justify the current price.

Understanding the Business

Company site ↗

The 60-second version of Gujarat Mineral Development Corporation Limited — what it does, how it earns, and who it competes with, before any of the numbers below.

What does this company do?

Gujarat Mineral Development Corporation Limited engages in mining and mineral processing business in India. The company operates through two segments, Mining and Power. It explores for lignite, bauxite, fluorspar, manganese, silica sand, limestone, bentonite, and ball clay.

IndustryThermal Coal

SectorEnergy

Employees679

Annual revenue₹2,653 Cr

How does it make money?

Turns over ₹2,653 Cr a year. Of every ₹100 of sales, about ₹36 reaches shareholders as profit, with ₹34 left at the operating level before interest, tax and depreciation. Each of its 679 employees supports ₹3.91 Cr of revenue a year, the signature of a capital- or asset-led business.

EBITDA margin33.9%

Net margin36.1%

Revenue / employee₹3.91 Cr

Who are its competitors?

The closest listed comparisons in its industry are RELIANCE INDUSTRIES LTD, OIL AND NATURAL GAS CORP., BHARAT PETROLEUM CORP LT, INDIAN OIL CORP LTD. These are the companies its valuation and returns are measured against elsewhere in this report.

RELIANCE INDUSTRIES LTDP/E 21.9x · ROE 8.3%

OIL AND NATURAL GAS CORP.P/E 6.4x · ROE 11.7%

BHARAT PETROLEUM CORP LTP/E 7.3x · ROE 17.1%

INDIAN OIL CORP LTDP/E 5.3x · ROE 15.4%

What is its competitive advantage?Some evidence

ROCE of 15.5% is above what capital typically costs, which suggests some pricing power, though not yet the sustained, wide gap that marks a durable advantage.

ROCE15.5%

ROE13.5%

Peer median ROE15.4%

What is the outlook?

1 analysts covering the stock expect revenue to grow about 12.5% and earnings to grow about 9.6% in the year to 2028. These are estimates by people who follow the company, not a forecast for the wider industry.

Est. revenue growth+12.5%

Est. earnings growth+9.6%

Analysts1

What has been driving growth?

Growth has come mainly from selling more, rather than from keeping more of each sale. Over 3 years revenue moved -24% while net margin moved +5% relative to itself. What this cannot tell you is which products, customers or geographies did the work — that lives in the segment disclosures of the annual report.

Revenue effect-24%

Margin effect+5%

DalalBaazaar Score

50/ 100

Moderate

Weighted across six categories. Every point is explained below.

✗ Revenue has contracted at 8.8% a year
✗ Profit has declined at 7.4% a year
✗ Profit fell 0.2% in the latest year

Quality vs. Valuation

Company Quality

48/ 100

Average

How good the business is, ignoring the share price entirely.

Valuation

48/ 100

Fair

What you are being asked to pay, ignoring how good the business is.

A reasonable business at a reasonable price — neither the quality nor the valuation stands out in either direction.

Historical Valuation

Current P/E

15.7x

3Y Median

18.4x

40 monthly readings · mean 18.3x · range 6.6x–34.4x

Sector Median

6.9x

median of 4 sector peers

🟢Current valuation is approximately 15% below its 3y median of 18.4x. Cheaper than its own history, which is worth a reason too: the market may be pricing in something the backward-looking numbers do not show.

⚠️Against its sector it trades 128% above the peer median of 6.9x.

vs. its own history

Fair

18.4x median over 40 months · -15%

vs. sector peers

Expensive

6.9x median of 4 peers · +128%

vs. generic bands

Fair

15x–35x

P/E (Trailing)

15.7x

P/B

2.12x

EV/EBITDA

16.9x

PEG

—

Dividend Yield

2.02%

What's Good / What's Bad

🟢 What's Going Well1

Consistently profitable
Profitable in every one of the last 4 reported years.

🔴 What Needs Attention5

Margins are compressing
EBITDA margin has slipped from 49.5% to 33.9% over 3 years.
Debt is rising
Total debt is up 15207% over 3 years — worth checking what it funded.
Free cash flow is negative
The business is not currently covering its capital spending from operations.
Return on equity is falling
ROE has dropped from 20.8% to 13.5% — each rupee of shareholder capital earns less than it did.
Return on capital is falling
ROCE has declined from 25.7% to 15.5% — often a sign of competition or overexpansion.

Red Flags

6 items require attention · 4 high · 2 watch

🔴Debt has risen sharplyFinancial
Total debt is up 15207% over 3 years, from ₹2 Cr to ₹317 Cr.
🔴High leverageFinancial
Debt/Equity of 4.47x — earnings must service borrowings before shareholders see anything.
🔴Profit up while operating cash flow fallsFinancial
Reported profit rose but cash generated by operations declined — worth checking whether earnings are being supported by non-cash items or working capital.
🔴Significant margin compressionFinancial
EBITDA margin has fallen 15.5 points, from 49.5% to 33.9%.
🟡Free cash flow is negativeFinancial
Free cash flow was -₹290 Cr in the latest year.
🟡Profit is decliningFinancial
Net profit is down 21% over 3 years.

Investment Thesis

🟢 Bull CaseWhat could make this work?

Earnings have proved durable
Profitable in every one of the last 4 reported years. Consistency lowers the risk that any single bad year is structural rather than cyclical.

🔴 Bear CaseWhat could go wrong?

Margins are being competed away
EBITDA margin has fallen from 49.5% to 33.9%. If the trend continues, profit falls even on flat sales — and margin decline rarely reverses quickly.
Leverage amplifies any setback
Debt/Equity of 4.47x. Interest is payable whether or not the business has a good year.
A premium to the sector to defend
It trades 128% above the peer median. That premium needs a reason that persists, or it closes.
Returns on shareholder capital are falling
ROE has dropped from 20.8% to 13.5%. Each rupee of equity earns less than it did, so profit growth increasingly depends on raising more capital rather than on the existing base working harder.
Size brings its own risk
Small Cap businesses are thinly traded, so exits are harder in a falling market and single events move the price more than they would for a larger company.

🟡 Key Things to WatchMeasurable tripwires, set against where this company stands today

1EBITDA margin holds above 32%✓ 33.9%
Two points below today's level — enough room for noise, tight enough to catch real compression.
2Free cash flow remains positive✗ -₹290 Cr
Profit that never becomes cash eventually stops being profit.
3Debt / EBITDA stays below 2x✓ 0.4x
The ratio lenders write covenants against; it survives a small or negative equity base, unlike Debt/Equity.
4ROCE stays above 13%✓ 15.5%
Falling returns on capital are usually competition arriving, and show up here before they reach the margin.
5Valuation vs its own median of 18.4x✓ 15.7x today
A re-rating above its own history needs a reason; without one it is just a higher price.

Investment Checklist

6 / 12 checks passed

✗ Strong return on equity (ROE ≥ 15%)
✓ Strong return on capital employed (ROCE ≥ 15%)
✓ Healthy net margin (≥ 10%)
✗ Generates positive free cash flow
✗ Manageable leverage (Debt/Equity < 1.0)
✓ Adequate short-term liquidity (Current Ratio ≥ 1.0)
✓ Revenue growing year-over-year
✗ Profit growing year-over-year
✓ Not trading at an extreme valuation (P/E < 40x)
✓ Not buying right at the 52-week high
✗ Analyst consensus isn't majority-sell
✗ Short-term technical trend isn't bearish

Price history

Quick Metrics

4 good · 4 neutral · 3 weak

Market Cap

₹14,978 Cr

Small Cap

Smaller company — thin liquidity and deep drawdowns are normal here

P/E (Trailing)

15.7x

Fair

Fairly valued against the generic band

P/B Ratio

2.12x

Fair

Moderate premium to the company's book value

EPS (TTM)

₹30.07

Profitable

Profitable on a per-share basis

ROE

13.5%

Moderate

Moderate capital efficiency

ROCE

15.5%

Strong

Earns comfortably above its likely cost of capital

Debt/Equity

4.47x

High

High leverage

Revenue Growth (YoY)

23.8%

Healthy

Healthy top-line growth

Profit Growth (YoY)

-0.2%

Falling

Profits are shrinking

Dividend Yield

2.02%

Healthy

Meaningful cash return while you hold the stock

Free Cash Flow

-₹290 Cr

Cash burning

Spending more cash than the operations bring in

More Metrics

CMP

₹471

P/E (Forward)

13.7x

Improving

Below the trailing multiple — the street expects earnings to grow into the price

Operating Margin

17.4%

Good

Healthy core-business profitability

Net Margin

33.8%

Good

Strong bottom-line conversion

Current Ratio

4.15

Comfortable

Healthy short-term liquidity

Beta (vs Nifty)

0.36

Defensive

Steadier than the market

52W Range Position

Near low

Near its 52-week low

Technical Snapshot

SMA 20 / SMA 50

504.5 / 545.1

Bearish alignment (short < long)

Price vs SMA 200

Below

Long-term downtrend

RSI (14)

21.7

Oversold zone

Financial Trend (4-Year)

Metric	FY23	FY24	FY25	FY26	3Y CAGR
Revenue	₹3,498 Cr	₹2,463 Cr	₹2,851 Cr	₹2,653 Cr	-8.8%
EBITDA	₹1,730 Cr	₹880 Cr	₹978 Cr	₹900 Cr	-19.6%
EBITDA Margin	49.5%	35.7%	34.3%	33.9%	—
PAT (Net Profit)	₹1,204 Cr	₹597 Cr	₹680 Cr	₹957 Cr	-7.4%
EPS	₹37.88	₹18.78	₹21.38	₹30.08	-7.4%
ROE	20.8%	9.8%	10.6%	13.5%	—
ROCE	25.7%	11.8%	12.3%	15.5%	—
Total Debt	₹2 Cr	₹3 Cr	₹126 Cr	₹317 Cr	+434.9%
Free Cash Flow	₹908 Cr	-₹369 Cr	₹422 Cr	-₹290 Cr	—

🔴 Revenue has shrunk at 8.8% a year over 3 years.

🔴 EBITDA has shrunk at 19.6% a year over 3 years.

🔴 EBITDA Margin has fallen from 49.5% to 33.9% over 3 years (-15.5 pts).

🔴 PAT (Net Profit) has shrunk at 7.4% a year over 3 years.

🔴 EPS has shrunk at 7.4% a year over 3 years.

🔴 ROE has fallen from 20.8% to 13.5% over 3 years (-7.3 pts).

🔴 ROCE has fallen from 25.7% to 15.5% over 3 years (-10.1 pts).

🔴 Total Debt has grown at 434.9% a year over 3 years.

🔴 Free Cash Flow has turned negative, from ₹908 Cr to -₹290 Cr.

Balance Sheet & Cash Flow — FY2026

Total Assets

₹8,983 Cr

Total Liabilities

₹1,910 Cr

Total Debt

₹317 Cr

Cash & Equivalents

₹94 Cr

Operating Cash Flow

₹744 Cr

Capex

-₹1,034 Cr

Shareholding (proxy)

Institutional Holding

2.5%

Insider Holding

74.0%

Corporate Actions

Dividend Rate

₹9.5

Ex-Dividend Date

23 Sept 2026

Analyst Consensus

Recommendations

0 Buy · 0 Hold · 1 Sell

Target Price (Mean)

₹274

-41.8% vs CMP

Target Range

₹274 – ₹274

Peer Comparison

Company	P/E	ROE
RELIANCE INDUSTRIES LTD	21.9x	8.3%
OIL AND NATURAL GAS CORP.	6.4x	11.7%
BHARAT PETROLEUM CORP LT	7.3x	17.1%
INDIAN OIL CORP LTD	5.3x	15.4%

Recent News

2 mixed4 general

Gujarat Mineral Development Corporation Share Price near low

Univest, 08 Oct

GMDCLTD Forecast — Price Target — Prediction for 2027

TradingView, 25 JunAnalyst view

🟡Mixed / dependsBroker commentary — an opinion about the price rather than new information about the business.

Gujarat Mineral Development (NSEI:GMDCLTD) Stock Forecast & Analyst Predictions

Simply Wall Street, 03 AugAnalyst view

🟡Mixed / dependsBroker commentary — an opinion about the price rather than new information about the business.

Gujarat Mineral Development Corporation Ltd. (GMDCLTD) 52 Week Low Streak Extends

Univest, 09 Oct

GMDC, Titagarh Rail, Mishra Dhatu Nigam, Talbros Engineering Dividends: Last Day To Buy Shares To Qualify

NDTV Profit, 22 Sept

Gujarat Mineral Development Corporation - Positive Breakout: These 7 stocks cross above their 200 DMAs

The Economic Times, 07 Aug

Watch Items

Trading very close to its 52-week low — worth checking whether this reflects a temporary setback or a structural problem.
Cross-check against the company's latest quarterly filing / investor presentation before acting.
RSI is in oversold territory — could mean either a bargain or a stock still falling for good reason. Check the 'why' before assuming reversal.

DalalBaazaar Thesis

🟢Business QualityStrong14.3/20

🟡Financial HealthAdequate9.9/20

🔴GrowthWeak2.4/20

🟡ProfitabilityModerate8.9/15

🟢ValuationAttractive9.9/15

🔴RiskHigh4.4/10

Unremarkable in both directions

A reasonable business at a reasonable price. Nothing here is alarming and nothing is compelling, which usually means the decision rests on things this data cannot see — the industry's direction, management's intent, and what else is available to you. 4 high-severity red flags sit above this conclusion and should be read first.

This thesis breaks if

✓EBITDA margin holds above 32%33.9%
✗Free cash flow remains positive-₹290 Cr
✓Debt / EBITDA stays below 2x0.4x
✓ROCE stays above 13%15.5%
✓Valuation vs its own median of 18.4x15.7x today