Goel Food Products Limited

Consumer Defensive — Packaged Foods · BSE

₹14.50+₹0.51 (+3.65%)

DalalBaazaar Score

48 / 100

🟡 Moderate

Verdict

CAUTION

Risk

High

Driven by moderate debt load, negative free cash flow, micro-cap size, which brings thin liquidity.

In simple words: Reasonable but unspectacular business quality, but sales are shrinking. Cash generation is currently the main factor to watch.

Decision support, not a buy or sell call.

As of 18 Oct 2026, 6:07 pm

Caution warranted. Multiple fundamental metrics — flagged in red below — point to either valuation stretch, leverage risk, or weakening profitability. This doesn't mean avoid the stock outright, but it does mean the burden of proof is on the growth story to justify the current price.

Understanding the Business

Company site ↗

The 60-second version of Goel Food Products Limited — what it does, how it earns, and who it competes with, before any of the numbers below.

What does this company do?

Goel Food Products Limited engages in the banquets, hotels, and catering businesses primarily in India. It operates banquets and hotels for event hosting, such as birthday parties, kirtans, and kitty parties. The company was incorporated in 1996 and is based in Kolkata, India.

IndustryPackaged Foods

SectorConsumer Defensive

Employees33

Annual revenue₹22 Cr

How does it make money?

Turns over ₹22 Cr a year. Of every ₹100 of sales, about ₹13 reaches shareholders as profit, with ₹35 left at the operating level before interest, tax and depreciation. Each of its 33 employees supports ₹66.4 lakh of revenue a year, the signature of a people-led business.

EBITDA margin34.8%

Net margin12.9%

Revenue / employee₹66.4 lakh

Who are its competitors?

The closest listed comparisons in its industry are NESTLE INDIA LIMITED, BRITANNIA INDUSTRIES LTD, TATA CONSUMER PRODUCT LTD, DABUR INDIA LTD. These are the companies its valuation and returns are measured against elsewhere in this report.

NESTLE INDIA LIMITEDP/E 59.8x · ROE 79.9%

BRITANNIA INDUSTRIES LTDP/E 44.1x · ROE 51.0%

TATA CONSUMER PRODUCT LTDP/E 59.3x · ROE 7.5%

DABUR INDIA LTDP/E 34.7x · ROE 17.2%

What is its competitive advantage?Little sign of one

Returns on capital of 12.5% are at or below what the capital likely costs. That is the financial pattern of a business competing largely on price, where advantage has to come from execution rather than position.

ROCE12.5%

ROE9.9%

Peer median ROE51.0%

What has been driving growth?

Profit has moved mainly because margins changed, not because the business sold much more. Over 3 years revenue moved -3% while net margin moved -28% relative to itself. What this cannot tell you is which products, customers or geographies did the work — that lives in the segment disclosures of the annual report.

Revenue effect-3%

Margin effect-28%

DalalBaazaar Score

48/ 100

Moderate

Weighted across six categories. Every point is explained below.

✗ Revenue has contracted at 0.9% a year
✗ Profit has declined at 11.1% a year
✗ Latest-year revenue growth of -16.8% is below the longer-term trend — momentum is fading
✗ Profit fell 46.2% in the latest year

Quality vs. Valuation

Company Quality

44/ 100

Weak

How good the business is, ignoring the share price entirely.

Valuation

69/ 100

Cheap

What you are being asked to pay, ignoring how good the business is.

Optically cheap, but the underlying business scores poorly. Cheap-and-weak is what a value trap looks like from the outside — the low price may be deserved.

Historical Valuation

Current P/E

10.0x

3Y Median

6.8x

40 monthly readings · mean 9.4x · range 3.3x–23.4x

Sector Median

51.7x

median of 4 sector peers

⚠️Current valuation is approximately 47% above its 3y median of 6.8x. Paying more than usual needs a reason — faster growth, a better balance sheet, or a re-rating you believe in.

🟢Against its sector it trades 81% below the peer median of 51.7x.

vs. its own history

Expensive

6.8x median over 40 months · +47%

vs. sector peers

Cheap

51.7x median of 4 peers · -81%

vs. generic bands

Cheap

Below 15x

P/E (Trailing)

10.0x

P/B

0.91x

EV/EBITDA

7.3x

PEG

—

Dividend Yield

None

What's Good / What's Bad

🟢 What's Going Well1

Consistently profitable
Profitable in every one of the last 4 reported years.

🔴 What Needs Attention7

Margins are compressing
EBITDA margin has slipped from 40.5% to 34.8% over 3 years.
Free cash flow is negative
The business is not currently covering its capital spending from operations.
Return on equity is falling
ROE has dropped from 23.4% to 9.4% — each rupee of shareholder capital earns less than it did.
Return on capital is falling
ROCE has declined from 16.8% to 12.5% — often a sign of competition or overexpansion.
Receivables growing faster than sales
Receivables are up 106% against revenue growth of -3% — customers are taking longer to pay.
Inventory building faster than sales
Inventory is up 58% against revenue growth of -3% — stock may not be moving.
Valuation above its historical average
At 10.0x the stock trades 47% above its own median of 6.8x.

Red Flags

5 items require attention · 3 high · 2 watch

🔴Significant margin compressionFinancial
EBITDA margin has fallen 5.7 points, from 40.5% to 34.8%.
🔴Receivables growing faster than salesFinancial
Receivables up 106% against revenue up -3% — sales are being booked faster than they are collected.
🔴Inventory building faster than salesFinancial
Inventory up 58% against revenue up -3% — stock may not be moving.
🟡Free cash flow is negativeFinancial
Free cash flow was -₹1 Cr in the latest year.
🟡Profit is decliningFinancial
Net profit is down 30% over 3 years.

Investment Thesis

🟢 Bull CaseWhat could make this work?

Cheaper than its peers
It trades 81% below the sector median. Either the market sees a problem the numbers do not show, or the discount closes.
Earnings have proved durable
Profitable in every one of the last 4 reported years. Consistency lowers the risk that any single bad year is structural rather than cyclical.

🔴 Bear CaseWhat could go wrong?

Margins are being competed away
EBITDA margin has fallen from 40.5% to 34.8%. If the trend continues, profit falls even on flat sales — and margin decline rarely reverses quickly.
The debt load needs earnings to hold up
Debt is 4.9x EBITDA. At that level a downturn in earnings turns a manageable balance sheet into a refinancing problem, and lenders get paid before shareholders.
Sales are being booked faster than collected
Receivables are up 106% against revenue up -3%. If customers keep taking longer to pay, reported profit will not turn into cash — and write-offs follow if some never do.
The price already assumes success
The stock trades 47% above its own median multiple. At this level the business has to deliver just to stand still, and a stumble is repriced twice — lower earnings on a lower multiple.
Returns on shareholder capital are falling
ROE has dropped from 23.4% to 9.4%. Each rupee of equity earns less than it did, so profit growth increasingly depends on raising more capital rather than on the existing base working harder.

🟡 Key Things to WatchMeasurable tripwires, set against where this company stands today

1EBITDA margin holds above 33%✓ 34.8%
Two points below today's level — enough room for noise, tight enough to catch real compression.
2Debt / EBITDA falls below 3x✗ 4.9x
Already stretched, so this is a reduction target rather than a level to hold. Around 3x is where lenders typically start attaching conditions.
3Free cash flow remains positive✗ -₹1 Cr
Profit that never becomes cash eventually stops being profit.
4Interest cover stays above 3x✗ 3.0x
How much operating profit can fall before interest stops being comfortably covered.
5ROCE stays above 10%✓ 12.5%
Falling returns on capital are usually competition arriving, and show up here before they reach the margin.

Investment Checklist

4 / 11 checks passed

✗ Strong return on equity (ROE ≥ 15%)
✗ Strong return on capital employed (ROCE ≥ 15%)
✓ Healthy net margin (≥ 10%)
✗ Generates positive free cash flow
✗ Manageable leverage (Debt/Equity < 1.0)
✓ Adequate short-term liquidity (Current Ratio ≥ 1.0)
✗ Revenue growing year-over-year
✗ Profit growing year-over-year
✓ Not trading at an extreme valuation (P/E < 40x)
✓ Not buying right at the 52-week high
✗ Short-term technical trend isn't bearish

Price history

Quick Metrics

3 good · 5 neutral · 3 weak

Market Cap

₹27 Cr

Micro Cap

Smaller company — thin liquidity and deep drawdowns are normal here

P/E (Trailing)

10.0x

Cheap

Cheap against the generic band

P/B Ratio

0.91x

Reasonable

Reasonable against the company's book value

EPS (TTM)

₹1.45

Profitable

Profitable on a per-share basis

ROE

9.9%

Moderate

Moderate capital efficiency

ROCE

12.5%

Moderate

Moderate return on the capital in the business

Debt/Equity

1.24x

Moderate

Moderate leverage

Revenue Growth (YoY)

-16.8%

Shrinking

Sales are contracting

Profit Growth (YoY)

-46.2%

Falling

Profits are shrinking

Dividend Yield

None

No dividend yield reported — usually means no payout, but verify if one was recently initiated

Free Cash Flow

-₹3 Cr

Cash burning

Spending more cash than the operations bring in

More Metrics

CMP

₹14.5

ROA

6.1%

Average

Average asset productivity

Operating Margin

37.3%

Good

Healthy core-business profitability

Net Margin

12.1%

Good

Strong bottom-line conversion

Current Ratio

1.52

Comfortable

Healthy short-term liquidity

Beta (vs Nifty)

0.95

Market-like

Moves roughly in line with the market

52W Range Position

51%

Mid-range

Technical Snapshot

SMA 20 / SMA 50

11.6 / 11.8

Bearish alignment (short < long)

Price vs SMA 200

Above

Long-term uptrend

RSI (14)

85.0

Overbought zone

Financial Trend (4-Year)

Metric	FY23	FY24	FY25	FY26	3Y CAGR
Revenue	₹22 Cr	₹24 Cr	₹25 Cr	₹22 Cr	-0.9%
EBITDA	₹9 Cr	₹11 Cr	₹10 Cr	₹8 Cr	-5.7%
EBITDA Margin	40.5%	44.4%	41.7%	34.8%	—
PAT (Net Profit)	₹4 Cr	₹5 Cr	₹5 Cr	₹3 Cr	-11.1%
EPS	₹2.21	₹2.65	₹2.68	—	—
ROE	23.4%	22.5%	18.7%	9.4%	—
ROCE	16.8%	19.0%	17.6%	12.5%	—
Total Debt	₹32 Cr	₹30 Cr	₹26 Cr	₹37 Cr	+4.9%
Free Cash Flow	-₹4 Cr	₹6 Cr	₹7 Cr	-₹1 Cr	—

🟡 Revenue has been broadly flat over 3 years (-0.9% a year).

🔴 EBITDA has shrunk at 5.7% a year over 3 years.

🔴 EBITDA Margin has fallen from 40.5% to 34.8% over 3 years (-5.7 pts).

🔴 PAT (Net Profit) has shrunk at 11.1% a year over 3 years.

🔴 ROE has fallen from 23.4% to 9.4% over 3 years (-14.0 pts).

🔴 ROCE has fallen from 16.8% to 12.5% over 3 years (-4.2 pts).

🔴 Total Debt has grown at 4.9% a year over 3 years.

Balance Sheet & Cash Flow — FY2026

Total Assets

₹72 Cr

Total Liabilities

₹43 Cr

Total Debt

₹37 Cr

Cash & Equivalents

₹9 Cr

Operating Cash Flow

-₹1 Cr

Capex

-₹0 Cr

Shareholding (proxy)

Institutional Holding

0.0%

Insider Holding

75.0%

Corporate Actions

Ex-Dividend Date

31 Jul 2024

Peer Comparison

Company	P/E	ROE
NESTLE INDIA LIMITED	59.8x	79.9%
BRITANNIA INDUSTRIES LTD	44.1x	51.0%
TATA CONSUMER PRODUCT LTD	59.3x	7.5%
DABUR INDIA LTD	34.7x	17.2%

Recent News

6 general

Goel Food Products (BSE: 543538): FY26 Profit Dips, AGM Done

Kalkine India, 06 Oct

Compare with

Equitymaster, 08 Oct

Goel Food Products Ltd. Key Financial Ratios – Valuation, Profitability & More

Value Research, 30 Aug

Goel Food Products re-appoints Rashmi Goyal as director at AGM

scanx.trade, 11 Sept

Goel Food Products Ltd. Peer Comparison – Compare with Others

Value Research, 31 Aug

Goel Food Products submits AGM publication to BSE

scanx.trade, 27 Jun

Watch Items

Revenue growth is negative (-16.8%) on the latest reported period — check if this is one-off or a trend.
Cross-check against the company's latest quarterly filing / investor presentation before acting.
RSI is in overbought territory — momentum entries here carry more short-term pullback risk.

DalalBaazaar Thesis

🟡Business QualityAdequate11.8/20

🟡Financial HealthAdequate10.4/20

🔴GrowthWeak4.1/20

🟡ProfitabilityModerate6.9/15

🟢ValuationAttractive9.8/15

🟡RiskModerate4.8/10

Cheap, but for a reason

The low price is the whole case here, and the business underneath scores poorly. Cheap-and-weak is what a value trap looks like from the outside — it needs a specific reason the numbers are about to improve, not just the observation that they are low. 3 high-severity red flags sit above this conclusion and should be read first.

This thesis breaks if

✓EBITDA margin holds above 33%34.8%
✗Debt / EBITDA falls below 3x4.9x
✗Free cash flow remains positive-₹1 Cr
✗Interest cover stays above 3x3.0x
✓ROCE stays above 10%12.5%