Goodluck India Limited

Basic Materials — Steel · NSE

₹591.00+₹13.80 (+2.39%)

DalalBaazaar Score

52 / 100

🟡 Moderate

Verdict

NEUTRAL

Risk

Moderate

Driven by negative free cash flow, small-cap size, which brings sharper price swings.

In simple words: Strong business and financial position, with both sales and profits growing well. Cash generation is currently the main factor to watch.

Decision support, not a buy or sell call.

As of 18 Oct 2026, 6:10 pm

Mixed / neutral. No major red flags jump out, but nothing here screams "obviously cheap" either. This is a name that needs a peer comparison and a view on near-term earnings triggers before sizing a position.

Understanding the Business

Company site ↗

The 60-second version of Goodluck India Limited — what it does, how it earns, and who it competes with, before any of the numbers below.

What does this company do?

Goodluck India Limited manufactures and supplies precision engineering and steel products in India and internationally.

IndustrySteel

SectorBasic Materials

Employees3,443

Annual revenue₹4,058 Cr

How does it make money?

Turns over ₹4,058 Cr a year. Of every ₹100 of sales, about ₹4 reaches shareholders as profit, with ₹10 left at the operating level before interest, tax and depreciation. Each of its 3,443 employees supports ₹1.18 Cr of revenue a year, the signature of a capital- or asset-led business.

EBITDA margin10.1%

Net margin4.5%

Revenue / employee₹1.18 Cr

Who are its competitors?

The closest listed comparisons in its industry are TATA STEEL LIMITED, JSW STEEL LIMITED, JINDAL STEEL LIMITED, STEEL AUTHORITY OF INDIA. These are the companies its valuation and returns are measured against elsewhere in this report.

TATA STEEL LIMITEDP/E 19.8x · ROE 10.8%

JSW STEEL LIMITEDP/E 12.0x · ROE 24.7%

JINDAL STEEL LIMITEDP/E 39.1x · ROE 5.3%

STEEL AUTHORITY OF INDIAP/E 16.5x · ROE 7.1%

What is its competitive advantage?Some evidence

ROCE of 18.9% is above what capital typically costs, which suggests some pricing power, though not yet the sustained, wide gap that marks a durable advantage.

ROCE18.9%

ROE12.2%

Peer median ROE10.8%

What is the outlook?

1 analysts covering the stock expect revenue to grow about 12.7% and earnings to grow about 37.0% in the year to 2028. These are estimates by people who follow the company, not a forecast for the wider industry.

Est. revenue growth+12.7%

Est. earnings growth+37.0%

Analysts1

What has been driving growth?

Profit has moved mainly because margins changed, not because the business sold much more. Over 3 years revenue moved +33% while net margin moved +56% relative to itself. What this cannot tell you is which products, customers or geographies did the work — that lives in the segment disclosures of the annual report.

Revenue effect+33%

Margin effect+56%

DalalBaazaar Score

52/ 100

Moderate

Weighted across six categories. Every point is explained below.

• P/E of 32.1x already prices in growth
✗ P/E is 28% above its own historical median of 25.1x — expensive by its own standards

Quality vs. Valuation

Company Quality

55/ 100

Average

How good the business is, ignoring the share price entirely.

Valuation

40/ 100

Expensive

What you are being asked to pay, ignoring how good the business is.

A reasonable business at a reasonable price — neither the quality nor the valuation stands out in either direction.

Historical Valuation

Current P/E

32.1x

3Y Median

25.1x

40 monthly readings · mean 24.2x · range 13.7x–32.7x

Sector Median

18.2x

median of 4 sector peers

⚠️Current valuation is approximately 28% above its 3y median of 25.1x. Paying more than usual needs a reason — faster growth, a better balance sheet, or a re-rating you believe in.

⚠️Against its sector it trades 76% above the peer median of 18.2x.

vs. its own history

Expensive

25.1x median over 40 months · +28%

vs. sector peers

Expensive

18.2x median of 4 peers · +76%

vs. generic bands

Fair

15x–35x

P/E (Trailing)

32.1x

P/B

3.56x

EV/EBITDA

17.1x

PEG

1.16

Dividend Yield

0.34%

What's Good / What's Bad

🟢 What's Going Well2

Margins are improving
EBITDA margin is up from 7.0% to 10.1% over 3 years.
Consistently profitable
Profitable in every one of the last 4 reported years.

🔴 What Needs Attention5

Debt is rising
Total debt is up 87% over 3 years — worth checking what it funded.
Free cash flow is negative
The business is not currently covering its capital spending from operations.
Return on capital is falling
ROCE has declined from 24.0% to 18.9% — often a sign of competition or overexpansion.
Inventory building faster than sales
Inventory is up 65% against revenue growth of 33% — stock may not be moving.
Valuation above its historical average
At 32.1x the stock trades 28% above its own median of 25.1x.

Red Flags

4 items require attention · 2 high · 2 watch

🔴Debt has risen sharplyFinancial
Total debt is up 87% over 3 years, from ₹598 Cr to ₹1,119 Cr.
🔴Free cash flow negative for 4 yearsFinancial
The business has not covered its capital spending from operations for several years running, which has to be funded externally.
🟡Inventory building faster than salesFinancial
Inventory up 65% against revenue up 33% — stock may not be moving.
🟡Shareholders have been dilutedOwnership
Shares outstanding are up 22% over 3 years — each existing share owns a smaller slice of the company.

Investment Thesis

🟢 Bull CaseWhat could make this work?

Capital compounds at a high rate
ROCE of 18.9% means each rupee reinvested earns well above what capital costs. If the company can keep deploying at this rate, growth creates value rather than just consuming cash.
Margin expansion has further to run
EBITDA margin has risen from 7.0% to 10.1%. If that holds, profit compounds faster than sales and today's multiple looks cheaper in hindsight than it does now.
Earnings have proved durable
Profitable in every one of the last 4 reported years. Consistency lowers the risk that any single bad year is structural rather than cyclical.

🔴 Bear CaseWhat could go wrong?

The price already assumes success
The stock trades 28% above its own median multiple. At this level the business has to deliver just to stand still, and a stumble is repriced twice — lower earnings on a lower multiple.
Size brings its own risk
Small Cap businesses are thinly traded, so exits are harder in a falling market and single events move the price more than they would for a larger company.
Several serious flags at once
2 high-severity checks triggered. Individually each has an explanation; together they raise the chance that something structural is wrong rather than a one-off.

🟡 Key Things to WatchMeasurable tripwires, set against where this company stands today

1Revenue growth stays above 8% a year✓ 10.0% CAGR
Latest reported year was 30.9%. The bar is set below the established compounding rate, so ordinary variation does not trip it.
2EBITDA margin holds above 8%✓ 10.1%
Two points below today's level — enough room for noise, tight enough to catch real compression.
3Debt / EBITDA stays below 2x✗ 2.7x
The ratio lenders write covenants against; it survives a small or negative equity base, unlike Debt/Equity.
4Free cash flow remains positive✗ -₹147 Cr
Profit that never becomes cash eventually stops being profit.
5Interest cover stays above 3x✓ 3.5x
How much operating profit can fall before interest stops being comfortably covered.

Investment Checklist

8 / 12 checks passed

✗ Strong return on equity (ROE ≥ 15%)
✓ Strong return on capital employed (ROCE ≥ 15%)
✗ Healthy net margin (≥ 10%)
✗ Generates positive free cash flow
✓ Manageable leverage (Debt/Equity < 1.0)
✓ Adequate short-term liquidity (Current Ratio ≥ 1.0)
✓ Revenue growing year-over-year
✓ Profit growing year-over-year
✓ Not trading at an extreme valuation (P/E < 40x)
✗ Not buying right at the 52-week high
✓ Analyst consensus isn't majority-sell
✓ Short-term technical trend isn't bearish

Price history

Quick Metrics

4 good · 6 neutral · 1 weak

Market Cap

₹5,893 Cr

Small Cap

Smaller company — thin liquidity and deep drawdowns are normal here

P/E (Trailing)

32.1x

Fair

Fairly valued against the generic band

P/B Ratio

3.56x

Fair

Moderate premium to the company's book value

EPS (TTM)

₹18.43

Profitable

Profitable on a per-share basis

ROE

12.2%

Moderate

Moderate capital efficiency

ROCE

18.9%

Strong

Earns comfortably above its likely cost of capital

Debt/Equity

0.73x

Moderate

Moderate leverage

Revenue Growth (YoY)

30.9%

Healthy

Healthy top-line growth

Profit Growth (YoY)

51.6%

Healthy

Profits growing at a healthy clip

Dividend Yield

0.34%

Modest

Small cash return — most of the return has to come from the price

Free Cash Flow

-₹147 Cr

Cash burning

Spending more cash than the operations bring in

More Metrics

CMP

₹591

P/E (Forward)

18.3x

Improving

Below the trailing multiple — the street expects earnings to grow into the price

Operating Margin

9.2%

Average

Average margins

Net Margin

4.6%

Average

Average bottom-line conversion

Current Ratio

1.38

Comfortable

Healthy short-term liquidity

Beta (vs Nifty)

0.57

Defensive

Steadier than the market

52W Range Position

92%

Near high

Near its 52-week high

Technical Snapshot

SMA 20 / SMA 50

530.1 / 496.7

Bullish alignment (short > long)

Price vs SMA 200

Above

Long-term uptrend

RSI (14)

65.6

Neutral momentum

Financial Trend (4-Year)

Metric	FY23	FY24	FY25	FY26	3Y CAGR
Revenue	₹3,048 Cr	₹3,484 Cr	₹3,897 Cr	₹4,058 Cr	+10.0%
EBITDA	₹213 Cr	₹295 Cr	₹339 Cr	₹410 Cr	+24.4%
EBITDA Margin	7.0%	8.5%	8.7%	10.1%	—
PAT (Net Profit)	₹88 Cr	₹132 Cr	₹166 Cr	₹183 Cr	+27.6%
EPS	₹11.1	₹15.47	₹16.89	₹18.15	+17.8%
ROE	14.2%	11.8%	12.6%	12.2%	—
ROCE	24.0%	20.1%	18.9%	18.9%	—
Total Debt	₹598 Cr	₹612 Cr	₹882 Cr	₹1,119 Cr	+23.3%
Free Cash Flow	-₹13 Cr	-₹242 Cr	-₹333 Cr	-₹147 Cr	—

🟢 Revenue has grown at 10.0% a year over 3 years.

🟢 EBITDA has grown at 24.4% a year over 3 years.

🟢 EBITDA Margin has risen from 7.0% to 10.1% over 3 years (+3.1 pts).

🟢 PAT (Net Profit) has grown at 27.6% a year over 3 years.

🟢 EPS has grown at 17.8% a year over 3 years.

🔴 ROE has fallen from 14.2% to 12.2% over 3 years (-1.9 pts).

🔴 ROCE has fallen from 24.0% to 18.9% over 3 years (-5.0 pts).

🔴 Total Debt has grown at 23.3% a year over 3 years.

Balance Sheet & Cash Flow — FY2026

Total Assets

₹3,046 Cr

Total Liabilities

₹1,518 Cr

Total Debt

₹1,119 Cr

Cash & Equivalents

₹1 Cr

Operating Cash Flow

₹200 Cr

Capex

-₹348 Cr

Shareholding (proxy)

Institutional Holding

4.9%

Insider Holding

58.6%

Corporate Actions

Dividend Rate

₹2

Ex-Dividend Date

23 Sept 2026

Analyst Consensus

Recommendations

1 Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell

Target Price (Mean)

₹562.67

-4.8% vs CMP

Target Range

₹533.33 – ₹592

Peer Comparison

Company	P/E	ROE
TATA STEEL LIMITED	19.8x	10.8%
JSW STEEL LIMITED	12.0x	24.7%
JINDAL STEEL LIMITED	39.1x	5.3%
STEEL AUTHORITY OF INDIA	16.5x	7.1%

Recent News

2 mixed4 general

Goodluck India Share Price Rise Backed by Fundamental Ratios

Univest, 14 OctPrice move

🟡Mixed / dependsA price move, which is not by itself a change in the business. Worth finding the cause before reading it as either good or bad.

Goodluck India stock hits a new all-time high: is the stock worth watching?

TradingView, 16 Oct

Goodluck India stock hits a new all-time high: is the stock worth watching?

Livemint, 16 Oct

With EPS Growth And More, Goodluck India (NSE:GOODLUCK) Makes An Interesting Case

Simply Wall Street, 13 Oct

Goodluck India shares surge 17% as merger expands, defence arm to join firm along with green energy unit

The Economic Times, 12 OctM&A

🟡Mixed / dependsAcquisitions change the balance sheet before they change the earnings. Look at what was paid, how it was funded, and whether debt rose.

Goodluck India Stock Hits a New All-Time High: Is the Stock Worth Watching?

Equitymaster, 13 Oct

Watch Items

Trading very close to its 52-week high — momentum-driven entries here carry more mean-reversion risk.
Cross-check against the company's latest quarterly filing / investor presentation before acting.

DalalBaazaar Thesis

🔴Business QualityWeak8.8/20

🟡Financial HealthAdequate9.8/20

🟢GrowthStrong16.1/20

🔴ProfitabilityWeak6.5/15

🔴ValuationDemanding6.1/15

🟡RiskModerate4.9/10

Unremarkable in both directions

A reasonable business at a reasonable price. Nothing here is alarming and nothing is compelling, which usually means the decision rests on things this data cannot see — the industry's direction, management's intent, and what else is available to you. 2 high-severity red flags sit above this conclusion and should be read first.

This thesis breaks if

✓Revenue growth stays above 8% a year10.0% CAGR
✓EBITDA margin holds above 8%10.1%
✗Debt / EBITDA stays below 2x2.7x
✗Free cash flow remains positive-₹147 Cr
✓Interest cover stays above 3x3.5x