Greenpanel Industries Limited

Basic Materials — Lumber & Wood Production · NSE

₹143.00+₹0.17 (+0.12%)

DalalBaazaar Score

35 / 100

🔴 Weak

Verdict

CAUTION

Risk

Moderate

Driven by micro-cap size, which brings thin liquidity, a very high earnings multiple, which leaves little margin for disappointment, falling profits.

In simple words: The business is earning a fairly low return on the money invested in it, though profits are falling even as sales grow. Valuation is currently the main factor to watch.

Decision support, not a buy or sell call.

As of 18 Oct 2026, 7:03 pm

Understanding the Business

Company site ↗

The 60-second version of Greenpanel Industries Limited — what it does, how it earns, and who it competes with, before any of the numbers below.

What does this company do?

Greenpanel Industries Limited engages in the manufacturing and sale of plywood, medium density fibre board (MDF), and allied products under the Greenpanel brand name in India and internationally.

IndustryLumber & Wood Production

SectorBasic Materials

Employees1,689

Annual revenue₹1,502 Cr

How does it make money?

Turns over ₹1,502 Cr a year. Of every ₹100 of sales, about ₹-2 reaches shareholders as profit, with ₹5 left at the operating level before interest, tax and depreciation. Each of its 1,689 employees supports ₹88.9 lakh of revenue a year, the signature of a people-led business.

Revenue / employee₹88.9 lakh

Who are its competitors?

The closest listed comparisons in its industry are TATA STEEL LIMITED, JSW STEEL LIMITED, ULTRATECH CEMENT LIMITED, ASIAN PAINTS LIMITED. These are the companies its valuation and returns are measured against elsewhere in this report.

Compared side by side in Peers ↓

What is its competitive advantage?Little sign of one

Returns on capital of -1.5% are at or below what the capital likely costs. That is the financial pattern of a business competing largely on price, where advantage has to come from execution rather than position.

Peer median ROE22.3%

What is the outlook?

10 analysts covering the stock expect revenue to grow about 17.4% and earnings to grow about 97.9% in the year to 2028. These are estimates by people who follow the company, not a forecast for the wider industry.

Est. revenue growth+17.4%

Est. earnings growth+97.9%

Analysts10

What has been driving growth?

Profit has moved mainly because margins changed, not because the business sold much more. Over 3 years revenue moved -16% while net margin moved -113% relative to itself. What this cannot tell you is which products, customers or geographies did the work — that lives in the segment disclosures of the annual report.

Revenue effect-16%

Margin effect-113%

DalalBaazaar Score

35/ 100

Weak

Weighted across six categories. Every point is explained below.

✗ Revenue has contracted at 5.5% a year
✗ Profit fell 140.4% in the latest year

Quality vs. Valuation

Company Quality

33/ 100

Weak

How good the business is, ignoring the share price entirely.

Valuation

29/ 100

Expensive

What you are being asked to pay, ignoring how good the business is.

Weak on business quality and not cheap enough to compensate.

Historical Valuation

Current P/E

264.8x

3Y Median

26.6x

40 monthly readings · mean 27.8x · range 14.1x–48.5x

Sector Median

28.7x

median of 4 sector peers

⚠️Current valuation is approximately 894% above its 3y median of 26.6x. Paying more than usual needs a reason — faster growth, a better balance sheet, or a re-rating you believe in.

⚠️Against its sector it trades 822% above the peer median of 28.7x.

vs. its own history

Expensive

26.6x median over 40 months · +894%

vs. sector peers

Expensive

28.7x median of 4 peers · +822%

vs. generic bands

Expensive

Above 35x

EV/EBITDA

27.5x

PEG

—

What's Good / What's Bad

🟢 What's Going Well1

Very low debt
Debt/Equity of 0.27x leaves the balance sheet with plenty of headroom.

🔴 What Needs Attention2

Return on equity is falling
ROE has dropped from 21.5% to -2.1% — each rupee of shareholder capital earns less than it did.
Return on capital is falling
ROCE has declined from 24.4% to -1.5% — often a sign of competition or overexpansion.

Red Flags

7 items require attention · 5 high · 2 watch

🔴Debt has risen sharplyFinancial
Total debt is up 63% over 3 years, from ₹228 Cr to ₹370 Cr.
🔴Thin interest coverageFinancial
Operating profit covers interest only -1.5x — little room if earnings dip.
🔴The company is lossmakingFinancial
Net profit of -₹29 Cr in the latest reported year.
🔴Significant margin compressionFinancial
EBITDA margin has fallen 18.9 points, from 23.9% to 5.0%.
🔴Receivables growing faster than salesFinancial
Receivables up 99% against revenue up -16% — sales are being booked faster than they are collected.
🟡Interest coverage is deterioratingFinancial
Cover has fallen from 26.3x to -1.5x.
🟡Inventory building faster than salesFinancial
Inventory up 24% against revenue up -16% — stock may not be moving.

Investment Thesis

🟢 Bull CaseWhat could make this work?

Self-funding with balance-sheet headroom
Positive free cash flow of ₹71 Cr alongside low debt means growth, buybacks or dividends need no outside money — and a downturn can be absorbed rather than refinanced.

🔴 Bear CaseWhat could go wrong?

Margins are being competed away
EBITDA margin has fallen from 23.9% to 5.0%. If the trend continues, profit falls even on flat sales — and margin decline rarely reverses quickly.
The debt load needs earnings to hold up
Debt is 4.9x EBITDA. At that level a downturn in earnings turns a manageable balance sheet into a refinancing problem, and lenders get paid before shareholders.
Sales are being booked faster than collected
Receivables are up 99% against revenue up -16%. If customers keep taking longer to pay, reported profit will not turn into cash — and write-offs follow if some never do.
The price already assumes success
The stock trades 894% above its own median multiple. At this level the business has to deliver just to stand still, and a stumble is repriced twice — lower earnings on a lower multiple.
Returns on shareholder capital are falling
ROE has dropped from 21.5% to -2.1%. Each rupee of equity earns less than it did, so profit growth increasingly depends on raising more capital rather than on the existing base working harder.

🟡 Key Things to WatchMeasurable tripwires, set against where this company stands today

1EBITDA margin holds above 3%✓ 5.0%
Two points below today's level — enough room for noise, tight enough to catch real compression.
2Debt / EBITDA falls below 3x✗ 4.9x
Already stretched, so this is a reduction target rather than a level to hold. Around 3x is where lenders typically start attaching conditions.
3Interest cover stays above 3x✗ -1.5x
How much operating profit can fall before interest stops being comfortably covered.
4Free cash flow remains positive✓ ₹71 Cr
Profit that never becomes cash eventually stops being profit.
5ROCE stays above 8%✗ -1.5%
Falling returns on capital are usually competition arriving, and show up here before they reach the margin.

Investment Checklist

6 / 12 checks passed

✗ Strong return on equity (ROE ≥ 15%)
✗ Strong return on capital employed (ROCE ≥ 15%)
✗ Healthy net margin (≥ 10%)
✓ Generates positive free cash flow
✓ Manageable leverage (Debt/Equity < 1.0)
✓ Adequate short-term liquidity (Current Ratio ≥ 1.0)
✓ Revenue growing year-over-year
✗ Profit growing year-over-year
✗ Not trading at an extreme valuation (P/E < 40x)
✓ Not buying right at the 52-week high
✓ Analyst consensus isn't majority-sell
✗ Short-term technical trend isn't bearish

Price history

Quick Metrics

4 good · 3 neutral · 4 weak

Market Cap

₹1,754 Cr

Micro Cap

Smaller company — thin liquidity and deep drawdowns are normal here

P/E (Trailing)

264.8x

Expensive

Expensive — verify against sector peers

P/B Ratio

1.29x

Reasonable

Reasonable against the company's book value

EPS (TTM)

₹0.54

Profitable

Profitable on a per-share basis

ROE

-2.1%

Weak

Weak capital efficiency

ROCE

-1.5%

Weak

Low return on total capital employed

Debt/Equity

0.27x

Low

Conservative leverage

Revenue Growth (YoY)

6.6%

Modest

Modest growth

Profit Growth (YoY)

-140.4%

Falling

Profits are shrinking

Dividend Yield

0.35%

Modest

Small cash return — most of the return has to come from the price

Free Cash Flow

₹71 Cr

Cash generative

Generates cash even after funding its capex

More Metrics

P/E (Forward)

13.4x

Improving

Below the trailing multiple — the street expects earnings to grow into the price

Operating Margin

1.5%

Weak

Thin margins leave little room for error

Net Margin

0.4%

Weak

Very little revenue reaches the bottom line

Current Ratio

1.94

Comfortable

Healthy short-term liquidity

Beta (vs Nifty)

0.50

Defensive

Steadier than the market

52W Range Position

Near low

Near its 52-week low

Technical Snapshot

SMA 20 / SMA 50

157.7 / 162.1

Bearish alignment (short < long)

Price vs SMA 200

Below

Long-term downtrend

RSI (14)

11.4

Oversold zone

Financial Trend (4-Year)

Metric	FY23	FY24	FY25	FY26	3Y CAGR
Revenue	₹1,779 Cr	₹1,564 Cr	₹1,394 Cr	₹1,502 Cr	-5.5%
EBITDA	₹425 Cr	₹262 Cr	₹139 Cr	₹75 Cr	-43.8%
EBITDA Margin	23.9%	16.7%	9.9%	5.0%	—
PAT (Net Profit)	₹257 Cr	₹135 Cr	₹72 Cr	-₹29 Cr	—
EPS	₹20.92	₹11.03	₹5.88	₹-2.38	—
ROE	21.5%	10.3%	5.2%	-2.1%	—
ROCE	24.4%	11.3%	3.6%	-1.5%	—
Total Debt	₹228 Cr	₹296 Cr	₹413 Cr	₹370 Cr	+17.6%
Free Cash Flow	₹257 Cr	-₹213 Cr	-₹114 Cr	₹71 Cr	-35.0%

🔴 Revenue has shrunk at 5.5% a year over 3 years.

🔴 EBITDA has shrunk at 43.8% a year over 3 years.

🔴 EBITDA Margin has fallen from 23.9% to 5.0% over 3 years (-18.9 pts).

🔴 PAT (Net Profit) has turned negative, from ₹257 Cr to -₹29 Cr.

🔴 EPS has turned negative, from ₹20.92 to ₹-2.38.

🔴 ROE has fallen from 21.5% to -2.1% over 3 years (-23.6 pts).

🔴 ROCE has fallen from 24.4% to -1.5% over 3 years (-26.0 pts).

🔴 Total Debt has grown at 17.6% a year over 3 years.

🔴 Free Cash Flow has shrunk at 35.0% a year over 3 years.

Balance Sheet & Cash Flow — FY2026

Total Assets

₹2,047 Cr

Total Liabilities

₹691 Cr

Cash & Equivalents

₹46 Cr

Operating Cash Flow

₹111 Cr

Capex

-₹41 Cr

Shareholding (proxy)

Institutional Holding

26.9%

Insider Holding

54.4%

Corporate Actions

Dividend Rate

₹0.5

Ex-Dividend Date

31 Jul 2026

Analyst Consensus

Recommendations

9 Buy · 5 Hold · 1 Sell

Target Price (Mean)

₹216.93

+51.7% vs CMP

Target Range

₹160 – ₹320

Peer Comparison

Company	P/E	ROE
TATA STEEL LIMITED	19.8x	10.8%
JSW STEEL LIMITED	12.0x	24.7%
ULTRATECH CEMENT LIMITED	37.6x	11.1%
ASIAN PAINTS LIMITED	46.9x	22.3%

Recent News

1 mixed1 negative4 general

Greenpanel Industries (NSEI:GREENPANEL) - Stock Analysis

Simply Wall Street, 15 Oct

Greenpanel Industries Ltd. 52 Week Low Streak: Key View

Univest, 14 Oct

Greenpanel Industries CSO Prakash Tripathi resigns effective Nov 5

scanx.trade, 15 Oct

Buy Greenpanel Industries; target of Rs 284: Prabhudas Lilladher

Moneycontrol.com, 12 Aug

Greenpanel Industries (NSEI:GREENPANEL) Stock Forecast & Analyst Predictions

Simply Wall Street, 09 OctAnalyst view

🟡Mixed / dependsBroker commentary — an opinion about the price rather than new information about the business.

Greenpanel Industries Q4 Profit Slumps 95% to ₹1.4 Cr Despite 6% Revenue Growth

Sahi, 15 MayResults

🔴Potentially negativeReported deterioration, which feeds the growth and margin inputs on this page directly.

Watch Items

Trading very close to its 52-week low — worth checking whether this reflects a temporary setback or a structural problem.
Cross-check against the company's latest quarterly filing / investor presentation before acting.
RSI is in oversold territory — could mean either a bargain or a stock still falling for good reason. Check the 'why' before assuming reversal.

DalalBaazaar Thesis

MiddlingFinancial Health

WeakBusiness Quality · Growth · Profitability · Valuation · Risk

Points for each in the Score ↑

Weak on the fundamentals

Poor scores on business quality without a price low enough to compensate. There is no obvious argument for owning this over a stronger company at a similar valuation. 5 high-severity red flags sit above this conclusion and should be read first.

3 of 5 tripwires tripped — Debt / EBITDA falls below 3x; Interest cover stays above 3x; ROCE stays above 8% · see Key things to watch ↑