Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited

Energy — Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · NSE

₹346.00−₹2.50 (−0.72%)

DalalBaazaar Score

57 / 100

🟡 Moderate

Verdict

NEUTRAL

Risk

Moderate

Driven by moderate debt load, short-term liabilities exceed short-term assets.

In simple words: Strong business and financial position, with both sales and profits growing well. Short-term liquidity is the main factor to watch.

Decision support, not a buy or sell call.

As of 18 Oct 2026, 7:46 pm

Understanding the Business

Company site ↗

The 60-second version of Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited — what it does, how it earns, and who it competes with, before any of the numbers below.

What does this company do?

Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the refining and marketing of petroleum products in India and internationally. It operates through Downstream Petroleum and All Other segments.

IndustryOil & Gas Refining & Marketing

SectorEnergy

Employees8,256

Annual revenue₹4.36 L Cr

How does it make money?

Turns over ₹4.36 L Cr a year. Of every ₹100 of sales, about ₹4 reaches shareholders as profit, with ₹8 left at the operating level before interest, tax and depreciation. Each of its 8,256 employees supports ₹52.84 Cr of revenue a year, the signature of a capital- or asset-led business.

Revenue / employee₹52.84 Cr

Who are its competitors?

The closest listed comparisons in its industry are RELIANCE INDUSTRIES LTD, OIL AND NATURAL GAS CORP., BHARAT PETROLEUM CORP LT, INDIAN OIL CORP LTD. These are the companies its valuation and returns are measured against elsewhere in this report.

Compared side by side in Peers ↓

What is its competitive advantage?Some evidence

ROCE of 23.3% is above what capital typically costs, which suggests some pricing power, though not yet the sustained, wide gap that marks a durable advantage.

Peer median ROE15.4%

What is the outlook?

14 analysts covering the stock expect revenue to shrink about 5.1% and earnings to grow about 680.9% in the year to 2028. These are estimates by people who follow the company, not a forecast for the wider industry.

Est. revenue growth-5.1%

Est. earnings growth+680.9%

Analysts14

What has been driving growth?

Profit has moved mainly because margins changed, not because the business sold much more. Over 3 years revenue moved +1% while net margin moved -357% relative to itself. What this cannot tell you is which products, customers or geographies did the work — that lives in the segment disclosures of the annual report.

Revenue effect+1%

Margin effect-357%

DalalBaazaar Score

57/ 100

Moderate

Weighted across six categories. Every point is explained below.

✗ Revenue CAGR of only 0.2% — barely ahead of inflation

Quality vs. Valuation

Company Quality

60/ 100

Average

How good the business is, ignoring the share price entirely.

Valuation

45/ 100

Fair

What you are being asked to pay, ignoring how good the business is.

A reasonable business at a reasonable price — neither the quality nor the valuation stands out in either direction.

Historical Valuation

Current P/E

44.1x

2Y Median

5.8x

28 monthly readings · mean 8.5x · range 3.9x–15.8x

Sector Median

6.9x

median of 4 sector peers

⚠️Current valuation is approximately 657% above its 2y median of 5.8x. Paying more than usual needs a reason — faster growth, a better balance sheet, or a re-rating you believe in.

⚠️Against its sector it trades 542% above the peer median of 6.9x.

vs. its own history

Expensive

5.8x median over 28 months · +657%

vs. sector peers

Expensive

6.9x median of 4 peers · +542%

vs. generic bands

Expensive

Above 35x

EV/EBITDA

3.8x

PEG

—

What's Good / What's Bad

🟢 What's Going Well6

Margins are improving
EBITDA margin is up from -0.7% to 7.9% over 3 years.
Debt is being paid down
Total debt is down 21% over 3 years.
Cash flow has turned positive
Free cash flow moved from negative to positive over 3 years.
Return on equity is rising
ROE has improved from -21.6% to 27.5%.
Return on capital is rising
ROCE has improved from -9.1% to 23.3%.
High return on capital employed
ROCE of 23.3% is the mark of a business that converts capital into profit efficiently.

🔴 What Needs Attention0

Nothing stands out as clearly deteriorating on the years of data available.

Red Flags

2 items require attention · 2 watch

🟡Inventory building faster than salesFinancial
Inventory up 34% against revenue up 1% — stock may not be moving.
🟡Short-term liquidity is tightFinancial
Current ratio of 0.64 — near-term obligations exceed near-term assets.

Investment Thesis

🟢 Bull CaseWhat could make this work?

Capital compounds at a high rate
ROCE of 23.3% means each rupee reinvested earns well above what capital costs. If the company can keep deploying at this rate, growth creates value rather than just consuming cash.
Margin expansion has further to run
EBITDA margin has risen from -0.7% to 7.9%. If that holds, profit compounds faster than sales and today's multiple looks cheaper in hindsight than it does now.
Deleveraging frees up earnings
Debt is down 21% over 3 years. Every rupee of interest not paid drops to the bottom line, so profit can grow even if revenue does not.

🔴 Bear CaseWhat could go wrong?

The price already assumes success
The stock trades 657% above its own median multiple. At this level the business has to deliver just to stand still, and a stumble is repriced twice — lower earnings on a lower multiple.
Growth barely outpaces inflation
Revenue compounding at 0.2% a year is close to the rate prices rise, so the business is gaining little ground in real terms. That leaves the share price dependent on a re-rating rather than on earnings growth.
Earnings are hard to forecast
Profit has swung sharply from year to year, so any single year — good or bad — is a weak guide to the next. Cyclical earnings deserve lower multiples for that reason.

🟡 Key Things to WatchMeasurable tripwires, set against where this company stands today

1EBITDA margin holds above 6%✓ 7.9%
Two points below today's level — enough room for noise, tight enough to catch real compression.
2Revenue growth stays above 4% a year✗ 0.2% CAGR
Latest reported year was 26.9%. The bar is set below the established compounding rate, so ordinary variation does not trip it.
3Free cash flow remains positive✓ ₹27,779 Cr
Profit that never becomes cash eventually stops being profit.
4Debt / EBITDA stays below 2x✓ 1.6x
The ratio lenders write covenants against; it survives a small or negative equity base, unlike Debt/Equity.
5ROCE stays above 20%✓ 23.3%
Falling returns on capital are usually competition arriving, and show up here before they reach the margin.

Investment Checklist

8 / 12 checks passed

✓ Strong return on equity (ROE ≥ 15%)
✓ Strong return on capital employed (ROCE ≥ 15%)
✗ Healthy net margin (≥ 10%)
✓ Generates positive free cash flow
✓ Manageable leverage (Debt/Equity < 1.0)
✗ Adequate short-term liquidity (Current Ratio ≥ 1.0)
✓ Revenue growing year-over-year
✓ Profit growing year-over-year
✗ Not trading at an extreme valuation (P/E < 40x)
✓ Not buying right at the 52-week high
✓ Analyst consensus isn't majority-sell
✗ Short-term technical trend isn't bearish

Price history

Quick Metrics

8 good · 2 neutral · 1 weak

Market Cap

₹73,623 Cr

Mid Cap

Mid-sized — more growth headroom, but sharper swings than large caps

P/E (Trailing)

44.1x

Expensive

Expensive — verify against sector peers

P/B Ratio

1.12x

Reasonable

Reasonable against the company's book value

EPS (TTM)

₹7.85

Profitable

Profitable on a per-share basis

ROE

27.5%

Strong

Strong capital efficiency

ROCE

23.3%

Strong

Earns comfortably above its likely cost of capital

Debt/Equity

0.85x

Moderate

Moderate leverage

Revenue Growth (YoY)

26.9%

Healthy

Healthy top-line growth

Profit Growth (YoY)

167.9%

Healthy

Profits growing at a healthy clip

Dividend Yield

7.01%

Healthy

Meaningful cash return while you hold the stock

Free Cash Flow

₹27,779 Cr

Cash generative

Generates cash even after funding its capex

More Metrics

P/E (Forward)

6.2x

Improving

Below the trailing multiple — the street expects earnings to grow into the price

Operating Margin

-12.8%

Weak

Thin margins leave little room for error

Net Margin

0.4%

Weak

Very little revenue reaches the bottom line

Current Ratio

0.64

Tight

Tight short-term liquidity

Beta (vs Nifty)

0.94

Market-like

Moves roughly in line with the market

52W Range Position

16%

Mid-range

Technical Snapshot

SMA 20 / SMA 50

345.1 / 358.5

Bearish alignment (short < long)

Price vs SMA 200

Below

Long-term downtrend

RSI (14)

47.2

Neutral momentum

Financial Trend (4-Year)

Metric	FY23	FY24	FY25	FY26	3Y CAGR
Revenue	₹4.33 L Cr	₹4.32 L Cr	₹4.32 L Cr	₹4.36 L Cr	+0.2%
EBITDA	-₹3,208 Cr	₹28,694 Cr	₹18,335 Cr	₹34,256 Cr	—
EBITDA Margin	-0.7%	6.6%	4.2%	7.9%	—
PAT (Net Profit)	-₹6,980 Cr	₹16,015 Cr	₹6,736 Cr	₹18,047 Cr	—
EPS	₹-32.81	₹75.26	₹31.66	₹84.81	—
ROE	-21.6%	34.1%	13.2%	27.5%	—
ROCE	-9.1%	23.8%	12.4%	23.3%	—
Total Debt	₹70,671 Cr	₹66,684 Cr	₹70,558 Cr	₹55,964 Cr	-7.5%
Free Cash Flow	-₹12,913 Cr	₹13,781 Cr	₹4,653 Cr	₹27,779 Cr	—

🟡 Revenue has been broadly flat over 3 years (0.2% a year).

🟢 EBITDA has turned positive, from -₹3,208 Cr to ₹34,256 Cr.

🟢 EBITDA Margin has risen from -0.7% to 7.9% over 3 years (+8.6 pts).

🟢 PAT (Net Profit) has turned positive, from -₹6,980 Cr to ₹18,047 Cr.

🟢 EPS has turned positive, from ₹-32.81 to ₹84.81.

🟢 ROE has risen from -21.6% to 27.5% over 3 years (+49.2 pts).

🟢 ROCE has risen from -9.1% to 23.3% over 3 years (+32.4 pts).

🟢 Total Debt has shrunk at 7.5% a year over 3 years.

🟢 Free Cash Flow has turned positive, from -₹12,913 Cr to ₹27,779 Cr.

Balance Sheet & Cash Flow — FY2026

Total Assets

₹2.03 L Cr

Total Liabilities

₹1.37 L Cr

Cash & Equivalents

₹124 Cr

Operating Cash Flow

₹36,111 Cr

Capex

-₹8,331 Cr

Shareholding (proxy)

Institutional Holding

28.1%

Insider Holding

55.0%

Corporate Actions

Next Earnings

22 Oct 2026

Dividend Rate

₹24.25

Ex-Dividend Date

14 Aug 2026

Analyst Consensus

Recommendations

12 Buy · 8 Hold · 11 Sell

Target Price (Mean)

₹404

+16.8% vs CMP

Target Range

₹290 – ₹660

Peer Comparison

Company	P/E	ROE
RELIANCE INDUSTRIES LTD	21.9x	8.3%
OIL AND NATURAL GAS CORP.	6.4x	11.7%
BHARAT PETROLEUM CORP LT	7.3x	17.1%
INDIAN OIL CORP LTD	5.3x	15.4%

Recent News

3 mixed3 general

HPCL posts ₹12,265 crore loss in Q1FY27 on higher costs

scanx.trade, 18 Oct

Top Midcap Stocks To Buy: Why Expert Sees Up to 67% Upside in HPCL, NALCO, Mazagon Dock, Siemens, More

Goodreturns, 17 Oct

Hindustan Petroleum Share Price Fall: Price and Valuation

Univest, 07 OctPrice move

🟡Mixed / dependsA price move rather than a change in the business. If the figures on this page have not moved, the fall is either an opportunity or news they have yet to catch up with.

HPCL sets October 22 results date. Analysts see INR 406.65 for HPCL stock

ad-hoc-news.de, 14 OctAnalyst view

🟡Mixed / dependsBroker commentary — an opinion about the price rather than new information about the business.

HPCL among 3 stocks showing White Marubozu pattern

The Economic Times, 16 Oct

Crude oil prices above $100 a barrel: Why HPCL, IOCL and BPCL could face earnings pressure, experts decode

Livemint, 14 OctResults

🟡Mixed / dependsA results event. The figures on this page update once the new statements reach the data feed, which usually lags the announcement.

Watch Items

Cross-check against the company's latest quarterly filing / investor presentation before acting.

DalalBaazaar Thesis

StrongFinancial Health · Profitability

MiddlingBusiness Quality · Valuation · Risk

WeakGrowth

Points for each in the Score ↑

Unremarkable in both directions

A reasonable business at a reasonable price. Nothing here is alarming and nothing is compelling, which usually means the decision rests on things this data cannot see — the industry's direction, management's intent, and what else is available to you.

1 of 5 tripwires tripped — Revenue growth stays above 4% a year · see Key things to watch ↑