Incredible Industries Limited

Basic Materials — Steel · NSE

₹31.48+₹0.94 (+3.08%)

DalalBaazaar Score

60 / 100

🟢 Good

Verdict

CAUTION

Risk

Moderate

Driven by negative free cash flow, micro-cap size, which brings thin liquidity.

In simple words: The business is earning a fairly low return on the money invested in it, but sales are shrinking. Cash generation is currently the main factor to watch.

Decision support, not a buy or sell call.

As of 18 Oct 2026, 6:10 pm

Caution warranted. Multiple fundamental metrics — flagged in red below — point to either valuation stretch, leverage risk, or weakening profitability. This doesn't mean avoid the stock outright, but it does mean the burden of proof is on the growth story to justify the current price.

Understanding the Business

Company site ↗

The 60-second version of Incredible Industries Limited — what it does, how it earns, and who it competes with, before any of the numbers below.

What does this company do?

Incredible Industries Limited manufactures and sells iron and steel products in India. The company offers steel related rolled products, such as TMT bars, wire rods, H.B. wires, etc., as well as related services.

IndustrySteel

SectorBasic Materials

Employees190

Annual revenue₹803 Cr

How does it make money?

Turns over ₹803 Cr a year. Of every ₹100 of sales, about ₹1 reaches shareholders as profit, with ₹3 left at the operating level before interest, tax and depreciation. Each of its 190 employees supports ₹4.23 Cr of revenue a year, the signature of a capital- or asset-led business.

EBITDA margin2.9%

Net margin1.4%

Revenue / employee₹4.23 Cr

Who are its competitors?

The closest listed comparisons in its industry are TATA STEEL LIMITED, JSW STEEL LIMITED, JINDAL STEEL LIMITED, STEEL AUTHORITY OF INDIA. These are the companies its valuation and returns are measured against elsewhere in this report.

TATA STEEL LIMITEDP/E 19.8x · ROE 10.8%

JSW STEEL LIMITEDP/E 12.0x · ROE 24.7%

JINDAL STEEL LIMITEDP/E 39.1x · ROE 5.3%

STEEL AUTHORITY OF INDIAP/E 16.5x · ROE 7.1%

What is its competitive advantage?Little sign of one

Returns on capital of 10.5% are at or below what the capital likely costs. That is the financial pattern of a business competing largely on price, where advantage has to come from execution rather than position.

ROCE10.5%

ROE7.3%

Peer median ROE10.8%

What has been driving growth?

Profit has moved mainly because margins changed, not because the business sold much more. Over 3 years revenue moved +14% while net margin moved +106% relative to itself. What this cannot tell you is which products, customers or geographies did the work — that lives in the segment disclosures of the annual report.

Revenue effect+14%

Margin effect+106%

DalalBaazaar Score

60/ 100

Good

Weighted across six categories. Every point is explained below.

✓ Beta of 0.29 — historically steadier than the index
✗ Micro Cap: thinner liquidity and sharper drawdowns are normal
✗ Negative free cash flow means dependence on external funding

Quality vs. Valuation

Company Quality

56/ 100

Average

How good the business is, ignoring the share price entirely.

Valuation

88/ 100

Cheap

What you are being asked to pay, ignoring how good the business is.

A reasonable business at a reasonable price — neither the quality nor the valuation stands out in either direction.

Historical Valuation

Current P/E

12.1x

3Y Median

29.0x

40 monthly readings · mean 26.4x · range 10.7x–44.7x

Sector Median

18.2x

median of 4 sector peers

🟢Current valuation is approximately 58% below its 3y median of 29.0x. Cheaper than its own history, which is worth a reason too: the market may be pricing in something the backward-looking numbers do not show.

🟢Against its sector it trades 34% below the peer median of 18.2x.

vs. its own history

Cheap

29.0x median over 40 months · -58%

vs. sector peers

Cheap

18.2x median of 4 peers · -34%

vs. generic bands

Cheap

Below 15x

P/E (Trailing)

12.1x

P/B

0.89x

EV/EBITDA

7.8x

PEG

0.37

Dividend Yield

None

What's Good / What's Bad

🟢 What's Going Well6

Debt is being paid down
Total debt is down 30% over 3 years.
Return on equity is rising
ROE has improved from 3.9% to 7.3%.
Return on capital is rising
ROCE has improved from 8.3% to 10.5%.
Valuation below its historical average
At 12.1x the stock trades 58% below its own median of 29.0x.
Very low debt
Debt/Equity of 0.22x leaves the balance sheet with plenty of headroom.
Consistently profitable
Profitable in every one of the last 4 reported years.

🔴 What Needs Attention1

Free cash flow is negative
The business is not currently covering its capital spending from operations.

Red Flags

1 item require attention · 1 watch

🟡Free cash flow is negativeFinancial
Free cash flow was -₹13 Cr in the latest year.

Investment Thesis

🟢 Bull CaseWhat could make this work?

Deleveraging frees up earnings
Debt is down 30% over 3 years. Every rupee of interest not paid drops to the bottom line, so profit can grow even if revenue does not.
Priced below its own history
The stock trades 58% below its own median multiple. If the business performs as it has and simply re-rates back to normal, that gap is return on its own.
Cheaper than its peers
It trades 34% below the sector median. Either the market sees a problem the numbers do not show, or the discount closes.
Earnings have proved durable
Profitable in every one of the last 4 reported years. Consistency lowers the risk that any single bad year is structural rather than cyclical.

🔴 Bear CaseWhat could go wrong?

Growth barely outpaces inflation
Revenue compounding at 4.4% a year is close to the rate prices rise, so the business is gaining little ground in real terms. That leaves the share price dependent on a re-rating rather than on earnings growth.
Size brings its own risk
Micro Cap businesses are thinly traded, so exits are harder in a falling market and single events move the price more than they would for a larger company.

🟡 Key Things to WatchMeasurable tripwires, set against where this company stands today

1EBITDA margin holds above 1%✓ 2.9%
Two points below today's level — enough room for noise, tight enough to catch real compression.
2Free cash flow remains positive✗ -₹13 Cr
Profit that never becomes cash eventually stops being profit.
3Revenue growth stays above 4% a year✓ 4.4% CAGR
Latest reported year was -3.1%. The bar is set below the established compounding rate, so ordinary variation does not trip it.
4Debt / EBITDA stays below 2x✓ 1.5x
The ratio lenders write covenants against; it survives a small or negative equity base, unlike Debt/Equity.
5ROCE stays above 8%✓ 10.5%
Falling returns on capital are usually competition arriving, and show up here before they reach the margin.

Investment Checklist

5 / 11 checks passed

✗ Strong return on equity (ROE ≥ 15%)
✗ Strong return on capital employed (ROCE ≥ 15%)
✗ Healthy net margin (≥ 10%)
✗ Generates positive free cash flow
✓ Manageable leverage (Debt/Equity < 1.0)
✓ Adequate short-term liquidity (Current Ratio ≥ 1.0)
✗ Revenue growing year-over-year
✓ Profit growing year-over-year
✓ Not trading at an extreme valuation (P/E < 40x)
✓ Not buying right at the 52-week high
✗ Short-term technical trend isn't bearish

Price history

Quick Metrics

4 good · 4 neutral · 3 weak

Market Cap

₹147 Cr

Micro Cap

Smaller company — thin liquidity and deep drawdowns are normal here

P/E (Trailing)

12.1x

Cheap

Cheap against the generic band

P/B Ratio

0.89x

Reasonable

Reasonable against the company's book value

EPS (TTM)

₹2.61

Profitable

Profitable on a per-share basis

ROE

7.3%

Weak

Weak capital efficiency

ROCE

10.5%

Moderate

Moderate return on the capital in the business

Debt/Equity

0.22x

Low

Conservative leverage

Revenue Growth (YoY)

-3.1%

Shrinking

Sales are contracting

Profit Growth (YoY)

8.8%

Modest

Slow profit growth

Dividend Yield

None

No dividend yield reported — usually means no payout, but verify if one was recently initiated

Free Cash Flow

-₹13 Cr

Cash burning

Spending more cash than the operations bring in

More Metrics

CMP

₹31.48

Operating Margin

2.7%

Weak

Thin margins leave little room for error

Net Margin

1.4%

Weak

Very little revenue reaches the bottom line

Current Ratio

3.41

Comfortable

Healthy short-term liquidity

Beta (vs Nifty)

0.29

Defensive

Steadier than the market

52W Range Position

17%

Mid-range

Technical Snapshot

SMA 20 / SMA 50

31.7 / 32.3

Bearish alignment (short < long)

Price vs SMA 200

Below

Long-term downtrend

RSI (14)

40.8

Neutral momentum

Financial Trend (4-Year)

Metric	FY23	FY24	FY25	FY26	3Y CAGR
Revenue	₹706 Cr	₹782 Cr	₹721 Cr	₹803 Cr	+4.4%
EBITDA	₹18 Cr	₹21 Cr	₹23 Cr	₹23 Cr	+9.0%
EBITDA Margin	2.6%	2.7%	3.2%	2.9%	—
PAT (Net Profit)	₹5 Cr	₹6 Cr	₹12 Cr	₹12 Cr	+32.9%
EPS	₹1.05	₹1.28	₹2.67	₹2.46	+32.9%
ROE	3.9%	4.5%	8.6%	7.3%	—
ROCE	8.3%	10.7%	10.9%	10.5%	—
Total Debt	₹49 Cr	₹43 Cr	₹23 Cr	₹34 Cr	-11.3%
Free Cash Flow	₹8 Cr	₹18 Cr	₹31 Cr	-₹13 Cr	—

🟢 Revenue has grown at 4.4% a year over 3 years.

🟢 EBITDA has grown at 9.0% a year over 3 years.

🟡 EBITDA Margin has held roughly flat at 2.9% over 3 years.

🟢 PAT (Net Profit) has grown at 32.9% a year over 3 years.

🟢 EPS has grown at 32.9% a year over 3 years.

🟢 ROE has risen from 3.9% to 7.3% over 3 years (+3.5 pts).

🟢 ROCE has risen from 8.3% to 10.5% over 3 years (+2.2 pts).

🟢 Total Debt has shrunk at 11.3% a year over 3 years.

🔴 Free Cash Flow has turned negative, from ₹8 Cr to -₹13 Cr.

Balance Sheet & Cash Flow — FY2026

Total Assets

₹221 Cr

Total Liabilities

₹64 Cr

Total Debt

₹34 Cr

Cash & Equivalents

₹0 Cr

Operating Cash Flow

₹10 Cr

Capex

-₹23 Cr

Shareholding (proxy)

Institutional Holding

0.0%

Insider Holding

92.0%

Peer Comparison

Company	P/E	ROE
TATA STEEL LIMITED	19.8x	10.8%
JSW STEEL LIMITED	12.0x	24.7%
JINDAL STEEL LIMITED	39.1x	5.3%
STEEL AUTHORITY OF INDIA	16.5x	7.1%

Recent News

1 positive1 negative4 general

Incredible Industries Share Price news today: sector context

Univest, 11 Sept

Incredible Industries Limited Reports Credit Rating Downgrade by Infomerics Valuation and Rating

scanx.trade, 13 AprAnalyst view

🔴Potentially negativeAn analyst opinion changing, which moves the price without changing the business.

INCREDIBLE INDUSTRIES Share Price Forecast to 2030

Univest, 17 Jul

Yatharth Hospital & Trauma Care Services consolidated net profit rises 11.94% in the June 2026 quarter

Business Standard, 10 AugResults

🟢Potentially positiveReported improvement. Check whether it came from volume, price or a one-off item before treating it as a trend.

RUDRA Stock Price and Chart — NSE:RUDRA

TradingView, 19 Dec

Incredible Industries Board Approves Postal Ballot for Director Appointment

scanx.trade, 08 Jan

Watch Items

Revenue growth is negative (-3.1%) on the latest reported period — check if this is one-off or a trend.
Cross-check against the company's latest quarterly filing / investor presentation before acting.

DalalBaazaar Thesis

🟡Business QualityAdequate9/20

🟢Financial HealthStrong15/20

🟡GrowthModest11.3/20

🟡ProfitabilityModerate7.1/15

🟢ValuationAttractive13.2/15

🔴RiskHigh4.4/10

Unremarkable in both directions

A reasonable business at a reasonable price. Nothing here is alarming and nothing is compelling, which usually means the decision rests on things this data cannot see — the industry's direction, management's intent, and what else is available to you.

This thesis breaks if

✓EBITDA margin holds above 1%2.9%
✗Free cash flow remains positive-₹13 Cr
✓Revenue growth stays above 4% a year4.4% CAGR
✓Debt / EBITDA stays below 2x1.5x
✓ROCE stays above 8%10.5%