Mahindra Logistics Limited

Industrials — Integrated Freight & Logistics · NSE

₹410.60−₹1.15 (−0.28%)

DalalBaazaar Score

44 / 100

🟡 Moderate

Verdict

CAUTION

Risk

Moderate

Driven by micro-cap size, which brings thin liquidity, a very high earnings multiple, which leaves little margin for disappointment.

In simple words: The business is earning a fairly low return on the money invested in it, with both sales and profits growing well. Valuation is currently the main factor to watch.

Decision support, not a buy or sell call.

As of 18 Oct 2026, 6:09 pm

Caution warranted. Multiple fundamental metrics — flagged in red below — point to either valuation stretch, leverage risk, or weakening profitability. This doesn't mean avoid the stock outright, but it does mean the burden of proof is on the growth story to justify the current price.

Understanding the Business

Company site ↗

The 60-second version of Mahindra Logistics Limited — what it does, how it earns, and who it competes with, before any of the numbers below.

What does this company do?

Mahindra Logistics Limited provides integrated logistics solutions in India and internationally. It operates through two segments, Supply Chain Management (SCM) and Enterprise Mobility Services.

IndustryIntegrated Freight & Logistics

SectorIndustrials

Employees3,988

Annual revenue₹6,999 Cr

How does it make money?

Turns over ₹6,999 Cr a year. Of every ₹100 of sales, about ₹0 reaches shareholders as profit, with ₹6 left at the operating level before interest, tax and depreciation. Each of its 3,988 employees supports ₹1.76 Cr of revenue a year, the signature of a capital- or asset-led business.

EBITDA margin5.9%

Net margin0.0%

Revenue / employee₹1.76 Cr

Who are its competitors?

The closest listed comparisons in its industry are LARSEN & TOUBRO LTD., SIEMENS LTD, ABB INDIA LIMITED. These are the companies its valuation and returns are measured against elsewhere in this report.

LARSEN & TOUBRO LTD.P/E 30.1x · ROE 15.2%

SIEMENS LTDP/E 88.8x · ROE 10.5%

ABB INDIA LIMITEDP/E 92.6x · ROE 19.1%

What is its competitive advantage?Little sign of one

Returns on capital of 6.4% are at or below what the capital likely costs. That is the financial pattern of a business competing largely on price, where advantage has to come from execution rather than position.

ROCE6.4%

ROE0.2%

Peer median ROE15.2%

What is the outlook?

5 analysts covering the stock expect revenue to grow about 13.0% and earnings to grow about 46.8% in the year to 2028. These are estimates by people who follow the company, not a forecast for the wider industry.

Est. revenue growth+13.0%

Est. earnings growth+46.8%

Analysts5

What has been driving growth?

Profit has moved mainly because margins changed, not because the business sold much more. Over 3 years revenue moved +37% while net margin moved -94% relative to itself. What this cannot tell you is which products, customers or geographies did the work — that lives in the segment disclosures of the annual report.

Revenue effect+37%

Margin effect-94%

DalalBaazaar Score

44/ 100

Moderate

Weighted across six categories. Every point is explained below.

✗ ROE of 0.2% is weak
✗ ROE has fallen by 4.5 points over the period

Quality vs. Valuation

Company Quality

43/ 100

Weak

How good the business is, ignoring the share price entirely.

Valuation

44/ 100

Expensive

What you are being asked to pay, ignoring how good the business is.

Weak on business quality and not cheap enough to compensate.

Historical Valuation

Current P/E

110.7x

3Y Median

116.7x

40 monthly readings · mean 267.7x · range 74.7x–1743.4x

Sector Median

88.8x

median of 3 sector peers

🟡Currently trading close to its 3y median of 116.7x — the market is paying about what it usually pays for this company.

⚠️Against its sector it trades 25% above the peer median of 88.8x.

vs. its own history

Fair

116.7x median over 40 months · -5%

vs. sector peers

Expensive

88.8x median of 3 peers · +25%

vs. generic bands

Expensive

Above 35x

P/E (Trailing)

110.7x

P/B

3.47x

EV/EBITDA

11.2x

PEG

—

Dividend Yield

0.61%

What's Good / What's Bad

🟢 What's Going Well2

Debt is being paid down
Total debt is down 22% over 3 years.
Cash generation is improving
Free cash flow is up 137% over 3 years.

🔴 What Needs Attention1

Return on equity is falling
ROE has dropped from 4.7% to 0.2% — each rupee of shareholder capital earns less than it did.

Red Flags

4 items require attention · 2 high · 2 watch

🔴Thin interest coverageFinancial
Operating profit covers interest only 1.4x — little room if earnings dip.
🔴Profit up while operating cash flow fallsFinancial
Reported profit rose but cash generated by operations declined — worth checking whether earnings are being supported by non-cash items or working capital.
🟡Profit is decliningFinancial
Net profit is down 91% over 3 years.
🟡Shareholders have been dilutedOwnership
Shares outstanding are up 26% over 3 years — each existing share owns a smaller slice of the company.

Investment Thesis

🟢 Bull CaseWhat could make this work?

Deleveraging frees up earnings
Debt is down 22% over 3 years. Every rupee of interest not paid drops to the bottom line, so profit can grow even if revenue does not.

🔴 Bear CaseWhat could go wrong?

A premium to the sector to defend
It trades 25% above the peer median. That premium needs a reason that persists, or it closes.
Returns on shareholder capital are falling
ROE has dropped from 4.7% to 0.2%. Each rupee of equity earns less than it did, so profit growth increasingly depends on raising more capital rather than on the existing base working harder.
Earnings are hard to forecast
Profit has swung sharply from year to year, so any single year — good or bad — is a weak guide to the next. Cyclical earnings deserve lower multiples for that reason.
Size brings its own risk
Micro Cap businesses are thinly traded, so exits are harder in a falling market and single events move the price more than they would for a larger company.
Several serious flags at once
2 high-severity checks triggered. Individually each has an explanation; together they raise the chance that something structural is wrong rather than a one-off.

🟡 Key Things to WatchMeasurable tripwires, set against where this company stands today

1Revenue growth stays above 8% a year✓ 11.0% CAGR
Latest reported year was 23.3%. The bar is set below the established compounding rate, so ordinary variation does not trip it.
2EBITDA margin holds above 4%✓ 5.9%
Two points below today's level — enough room for noise, tight enough to catch real compression.
3Interest cover stays above 3x✗ 1.4x
How much operating profit can fall before interest stops being comfortably covered.
4Free cash flow remains positive✓ ₹115 Cr
Profit that never becomes cash eventually stops being profit.
5Debt / EBITDA stays below 2x✓ 1.6x
The ratio lenders write covenants against; it survives a small or negative equity base, unlike Debt/Equity.

Investment Checklist

8 / 12 checks passed

✗ Strong return on equity (ROE ≥ 15%)
✗ Strong return on capital employed (ROCE ≥ 15%)
✗ Healthy net margin (≥ 10%)
✓ Generates positive free cash flow
✓ Manageable leverage (Debt/Equity < 1.0)
✓ Adequate short-term liquidity (Current Ratio ≥ 1.0)
✓ Revenue growing year-over-year
✓ Profit growing year-over-year
✗ Not trading at an extreme valuation (P/E < 40x)
✓ Not buying right at the 52-week high
✓ Analyst consensus isn't majority-sell
✓ Short-term technical trend isn't bearish

Price history

Quick Metrics

5 good · 3 neutral · 3 weak

Market Cap

₹4,076 Cr

Micro Cap

Smaller company — thin liquidity and deep drawdowns are normal here

P/E (Trailing)

110.7x

Expensive

Expensive — verify against sector peers

P/B Ratio

3.47x

Fair

Moderate premium to the company's book value

EPS (TTM)

₹3.71

Profitable

Profitable on a per-share basis

ROE

0.2%

Weak

Weak capital efficiency

ROCE

6.4%

Weak

Low return on total capital employed

Debt/Equity

0.54x

Low

Conservative leverage

Revenue Growth (YoY)

23.3%

Healthy

Healthy top-line growth

Profit Growth (YoY)

106.4%

Healthy

Profits growing at a healthy clip

Dividend Yield

0.61%

Modest

Small cash return — most of the return has to come from the price

Free Cash Flow

₹115 Cr

Cash generative

Generates cash even after funding its capex

More Metrics

CMP

₹410.6

P/E (Forward)

24.4x

Improving

Below the trailing multiple — the street expects earnings to grow into the price

Operating Margin

2.2%

Weak

Thin margins leave little room for error

Net Margin

0.5%

Weak

Very little revenue reaches the bottom line

Current Ratio

1.16

Adequate

Adequate, but no real cushion

Beta (vs Nifty)

0.48

Defensive

Steadier than the market

52W Range Position

77%

Mid-range

Technical Snapshot

SMA 20 / SMA 50

411.4 / 404.9

Bullish alignment (short > long)

Price vs SMA 200

Above

Long-term uptrend

RSI (14)

45.3

Neutral momentum

Financial Trend (4-Year)

Metric	FY23	FY24	FY25	FY26	3Y CAGR
Revenue	₹5,120 Cr	₹5,506 Cr	₹6,105 Cr	₹6,999 Cr	+11.0%
EBITDA	₹282 Cr	₹254 Cr	₹305 Cr	₹413 Cr	+13.5%
EBITDA Margin	5.5%	4.6%	5.0%	5.9%	—
PAT (Net Profit)	₹26 Cr	-₹55 Cr	-₹36 Cr	₹2 Cr	-55.7%
EPS	₹3.32	₹-6.94	₹-4.78	₹0.25	-57.8%
ROE	4.7%	-11.1%	-8.2%	0.2%	—
ROCE	7.7%	3.9%	6.1%	6.4%	—
Total Debt	₹834 Cr	₹739 Cr	₹869 Cr	₹650 Cr	-8.0%
Free Cash Flow	₹48 Cr	₹156 Cr	₹162 Cr	₹115 Cr	+33.3%

🟢 Revenue has grown at 11.0% a year over 3 years.

🟢 EBITDA has grown at 13.5% a year over 3 years.

🟡 EBITDA Margin has held roughly flat at 5.9% over 3 years.

🔴 PAT (Net Profit) has shrunk at 55.7% a year over 3 years.

🔴 EPS has shrunk at 57.8% a year over 3 years.

🔴 ROE has fallen from 4.7% to 0.2% over 3 years (-4.5 pts).

🔴 ROCE has fallen from 7.7% to 6.4% over 3 years (-1.3 pts).

🟢 Total Debt has shrunk at 8.0% a year over 3 years.

🟢 Free Cash Flow has grown at 33.3% a year over 3 years.

Balance Sheet & Cash Flow — FY2026

Total Assets

₹3,108 Cr

Total Liabilities

₹1,909 Cr

Total Debt

₹650 Cr

Cash & Equivalents

₹107 Cr

Operating Cash Flow

₹254 Cr

Capex

-₹139 Cr

Shareholding (proxy)

Institutional Holding

16.8%

Insider Holding

59.8%

Corporate Actions

Dividend Rate

₹2.5

Ex-Dividend Date

10 Jul 2026

Analyst Consensus

Recommendations

4 Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell

Target Price (Mean)

₹476.6

+16.1% vs CMP

Target Range

₹400 – ₹527

Peer Comparison

Company	P/E	ROE
LARSEN & TOUBRO LTD.	30.1x	15.2%
SIEMENS LTD	88.8x	10.5%
ABB INDIA LIMITED	92.6x	19.1%

Recent News

3 mixed3 general

Mahindra Logistics (NSEI:MAHLOG) Stock Forecast & Analyst Predictions

Simply Wall Street, 07 OctAnalyst view

🟡Mixed / dependsBroker commentary — an opinion about the price rather than new information about the business.

Mahindra Logistics - 8 small, midcap stocks with upside potential of up to 50%. How many are in your portfolio?

The Economic Times, 17 Oct

MAHLOG Forecast — Price Target — Prediction for 2027

TradingView, 25 JunAnalyst view

🟡Mixed / dependsBroker commentary — an opinion about the price rather than new information about the business.

Mahindra Logistics vs Nifty 50: Share Price Performance Compared

Univest, 05 Oct

Mahindra Logistics zooms 8% amid 15-fold jump in volume on Q1 turnaround

Business Standard, 20 JulResults

🟡Mixed / dependsA results event. The figures on this page update once the new statements reach the data feed, which usually lags the announcement.

Buy Mahindra Logistics; target of Rs 507: Prabhudas Lilladher

Moneycontrol.com, 22 Jul

Watch Items

Cross-check against the company's latest quarterly filing / investor presentation before acting.

DalalBaazaar Thesis

🔴Business QualityWeak7.5/20

🟡Financial HealthAdequate12.7/20

🔴GrowthWeak7.7/20

🔴ProfitabilityWeak4.6/15

🟡ValuationFair6.9/15

🔴RiskHigh4.4/10

Weak on the fundamentals

Poor scores on business quality without a price low enough to compensate. There is no obvious argument for owning this over a stronger company at a similar valuation. 2 high-severity red flags sit above this conclusion and should be read first.

This thesis breaks if

✓Revenue growth stays above 8% a year11.0% CAGR
✓EBITDA margin holds above 4%5.9%
✗Interest cover stays above 3x1.4x
✓Free cash flow remains positive₹115 Cr
✓Debt / EBITDA stays below 2x1.6x