Maiden Forgings Limited

Industrials — Metal Fabrication · BSE

₹98.00−₹0.90 (−0.91%)

DalalBaazaar Score

42 / 100

🟡 Moderate

Verdict

CAUTION

Risk

Moderate

Driven by moderate debt load, micro-cap size, which brings thin liquidity.

In simple words: The business is earning a fairly low return on the money invested in it, with both sales and profits growing well. Thin profit margins are the main factor to watch.

Decision support, not a buy or sell call.

As of 18 Oct 2026, 8:27 pm

Understanding the Business

Company site ↗

The 60-second version of Maiden Forgings Limited — what it does, how it earns, and who it competes with, before any of the numbers below.

What does this company do?

Maiden Forgings Limited manufactures and sells ferrous metal products in India. The company offers steel bright bars, wires, profiles, and ground bars, as well as plastic and wire collated, and loose nails.

IndustryMetal Fabrication

SectorIndustrials

Employees98

Annual revenue₹232 Cr

How does it make money?

Turns over ₹232 Cr a year. Of every ₹100 of sales, about ₹2 reaches shareholders as profit, with ₹7 left at the operating level before interest, tax and depreciation. Each of its 98 employees supports ₹2.36 Cr of revenue a year, the signature of a capital- or asset-led business.

Revenue / employee₹2.36 Cr

Who are its competitors?

The closest listed comparisons in its industry are TATA STEEL LIMITED, JSW STEEL LIMITED, HINDALCO INDUSTRIES LTD, VEDANTA LIMITED. These are the companies its valuation and returns are measured against elsewhere in this report.

Compared side by side in Peers ↓

What is its competitive advantage?Little sign of one

Returns on capital of 13.7% are at or below what the capital likely costs. That is the financial pattern of a business competing largely on price, where advantage has to come from execution rather than position.

Peer median ROE18.7%

What has been driving growth?

Profit has moved mainly because margins changed, not because the business sold much more. Over 3 years revenue moved +5% while net margin moved -50% relative to itself. What this cannot tell you is which products, customers or geographies did the work — that lives in the segment disclosures of the annual report.

Revenue effect+5%

Margin effect-50%

DalalBaazaar Score

42/ 100

Moderate

Weighted across six categories. Every point is explained below.

✗ Revenue CAGR of only 1.6% — barely ahead of inflation
✗ Profit has declined at 19.4% a year

Quality vs. Valuation

Company Quality

40/ 100

Weak

How good the business is, ignoring the share price entirely.

Valuation

47/ 100

Fair

What you are being asked to pay, ignoring how good the business is.

Weak on business quality and not cheap enough to compensate.

Historical Valuation

Current P/E

27.8x

3Y Median

16.2x

40 monthly readings · mean 16.2x · range 9.2x–25.1x

Sector Median

12.2x

median of 4 sector peers

⚠️Current valuation is approximately 71% above its 3y median of 16.2x. Paying more than usual needs a reason — faster growth, a better balance sheet, or a re-rating you believe in.

⚠️Against its sector it trades 128% above the peer median of 12.2x.

vs. its own history

Expensive

16.2x median over 40 months · +71%

vs. sector peers

Expensive

12.2x median of 4 peers · +128%

vs. generic bands

Fair

15x–35x

EV/EBITDA

12.1x

PEG

0.61

What's Good / What's Bad

🟢 What's Going Well1

Consistently profitable
Profitable in every one of the last 4 reported years.

🔴 What Needs Attention2

Return on equity is falling
ROE has dropped from 23.6% to 6.2% — each rupee of shareholder capital earns less than it did.
Return on capital is falling
ROCE has declined from 32.1% to 13.7% — often a sign of competition or overexpansion.

Red Flags

4 items require attention · 2 high · 2 watch

🔴Receivables growing faster than salesFinancial
Receivables up 58% against revenue up 5% — sales are being booked faster than they are collected.
🔴Inventory building faster than salesFinancial
Inventory up 65% against revenue up 5% — stock may not be moving.
🟡Profit is decliningFinancial
Net profit is down 48% over 3 years.
🟡Margins are compressingFinancial
EBITDA margin is down 2.7 points over 3 years.

Investment Thesis

🟢 Bull CaseWhat could make this work?

Earnings have proved durable
Profitable in every one of the last 4 reported years. Consistency lowers the risk that any single bad year is structural rather than cyclical.

🔴 Bear CaseWhat could go wrong?

Margins are being competed away
EBITDA margin has fallen from 10.1% to 7.4%. If the trend continues, profit falls even on flat sales — and margin decline rarely reverses quickly.
The debt load needs earnings to hold up
Debt is 4.1x EBITDA. At that level a downturn in earnings turns a manageable balance sheet into a refinancing problem, and lenders get paid before shareholders.
Sales are being booked faster than collected
Receivables are up 58% against revenue up 5%. If customers keep taking longer to pay, reported profit will not turn into cash — and write-offs follow if some never do.
The price already assumes success
The stock trades 71% above its own median multiple. At this level the business has to deliver just to stand still, and a stumble is repriced twice — lower earnings on a lower multiple.
Growth barely outpaces inflation
Revenue compounding at 1.6% a year is close to the rate prices rise, so the business is gaining little ground in real terms. That leaves the share price dependent on a re-rating rather than on earnings growth.

🟡 Key Things to WatchMeasurable tripwires, set against where this company stands today

1EBITDA margin holds above 5%✓ 7.4%
Two points below today's level — enough room for noise, tight enough to catch real compression.
2Debt / EBITDA falls below 3x✗ 4.1x
Already stretched, so this is a reduction target rather than a level to hold. Around 3x is where lenders typically start attaching conditions.
3Interest cover stays above 3x✗ 2.1x
How much operating profit can fall before interest stops being comfortably covered.
4Revenue growth stays above 4% a year✗ 1.6% CAGR
Latest reported year was 17.7%. The bar is set below the established compounding rate, so ordinary variation does not trip it.
5Free cash flow remains positive✓ ₹2 Cr
Profit that never becomes cash eventually stops being profit.

Investment Checklist

7 / 11 checks passed

✗ Strong return on equity (ROE ≥ 15%)
✗ Strong return on capital employed (ROCE ≥ 15%)
✗ Healthy net margin (≥ 10%)
✓ Generates positive free cash flow
✓ Manageable leverage (Debt/Equity < 1.0)
✓ Adequate short-term liquidity (Current Ratio ≥ 1.0)
✓ Revenue growing year-over-year
✓ Profit growing year-over-year
✓ Not trading at an extreme valuation (P/E < 40x)
✓ Not buying right at the 52-week high
✗ Short-term technical trend isn't bearish

Price history

Quick Metrics

4 good · 6 neutral · 1 weak

Market Cap

₹139 Cr

Micro Cap

Smaller company — thin liquidity and deep drawdowns are normal here

P/E (Trailing)

27.8x

Fair

Fairly valued against the generic band

P/B Ratio

1.72x

Fair

Moderate premium to the company's book value

EPS (TTM)

₹3.53

Profitable

Profitable on a per-share basis

ROE

6.4%

Weak

Weak capital efficiency

ROCE

13.7%

Moderate

Moderate return on the capital in the business

Debt/Equity

0.85x

Moderate

Moderate leverage

Revenue Growth (YoY)

17.7%

Healthy

Healthy top-line growth

Profit Growth (YoY)

45.2%

Healthy

Profits growing at a healthy clip

Dividend Yield

None

No dividend yield reported — usually means no payout, but verify if one was recently initiated

Free Cash Flow

₹3 Cr

Cash generative

Generates cash even after funding its capex

More Metrics

ROA

4.8%

Average

Average asset productivity

Operating Margin

8.2%

Average

Average margins

Net Margin

2.2%

Weak

Very little revenue reaches the bottom line

Current Ratio

1.69

Comfortable

Healthy short-term liquidity

Beta (vs Nifty)

0.55

Defensive

Steadier than the market

52W Range Position

56%

Mid-range

Technical Snapshot

SMA 20 / SMA 50

99.2 / 104.3

Bearish alignment (short < long)

Price vs SMA 200

Above

Long-term uptrend

RSI (14)

44.6

Neutral momentum

Financial Trend (4-Year)

Metric	FY23	FY24	FY25	FY26	3Y CAGR
Revenue	₹221 Cr	₹236 Cr	₹213 Cr	₹232 Cr	+1.6%
EBITDA	₹22 Cr	₹24 Cr	₹20 Cr	₹17 Cr	-8.5%
EBITDA Margin	10.1%	10.2%	9.2%	7.4%	—
PAT (Net Profit)	₹10 Cr	₹10 Cr	₹6 Cr	₹5 Cr	-19.4%
EPS	₹6.76	₹6.84	₹4.26	—	—
ROE	23.6%	13.7%	7.9%	6.2%	—
ROCE	32.1%	22.6%	16.0%	13.7%	—
Total Debt	₹68 Cr	₹63 Cr	₹69 Cr	₹69 Cr	+0.9%
Free Cash Flow	₹3 Cr	-₹19 Cr	-₹5 Cr	₹2 Cr	-12.0%

🟡 Revenue has been broadly flat over 3 years (1.6% a year).

🔴 EBITDA has shrunk at 8.5% a year over 3 years.

🔴 EBITDA Margin has fallen from 10.1% to 7.4% over 3 years (-2.7 pts).

🔴 PAT (Net Profit) has shrunk at 19.4% a year over 3 years.

🔴 ROE has fallen from 23.6% to 6.2% over 3 years (-17.4 pts).

🔴 ROCE has fallen from 32.1% to 13.7% over 3 years (-18.5 pts).

🟡 Total Debt has been broadly flat over 3 years (0.9% a year).

🔴 Free Cash Flow has shrunk at 12.0% a year over 3 years.

Balance Sheet & Cash Flow — FY2026

Total Assets

₹181 Cr

Total Liabilities

₹100 Cr

Cash & Equivalents

₹2 Cr

Operating Cash Flow

₹6 Cr

Capex

-₹4 Cr

Shareholding (proxy)

Institutional Holding

0.0%

Insider Holding

75.1%

Peer Comparison

Company	P/E	ROE
TATA STEEL LIMITED	19.8x	10.8%
JSW STEEL LIMITED	12.0x	24.7%
HINDALCO INDUSTRIES LTD	12.3x	12.0%
VEDANTA LIMITED	10.4x	18.7%

Recent News

1 mixed5 general

Maiden Forgings hosts virtual analyst meet on August 20

scanx.trade, 20 AugAnalyst view

🟡Mixed / dependsBroker commentary — an opinion about the price rather than new information about the business.

Compare LLOYDS STEEL IND. with

Equitymaster, 10 Oct

Maiden Forgings starts operations at new Bhojpur plant

BusinessLine, 22 Jul

Small-cap stock under ₹100 shows resilience against stock market sell off

Livemint, 22 Jul

Maiden Forgings to expand manufacturing capacity to 62,000 tonnes

ET Manufacturing, 24 Jul

Maiden Forgings Share Price Technicals and Fundamentals

Univest, 10 Aug

Watch Items

Cross-check against the company's latest quarterly filing / investor presentation before acting.

DalalBaazaar Thesis

StrongFinancial Health

MiddlingRisk

WeakBusiness Quality · Growth · Profitability · Valuation

Points for each in the Score ↑

Weak on the fundamentals

Poor scores on business quality without a price low enough to compensate. There is no obvious argument for owning this over a stronger company at a similar valuation. 2 high-severity red flags sit above this conclusion and should be read first.

3 of 5 tripwires tripped — Debt / EBITDA falls below 3x; Interest cover stays above 3x; Revenue growth stays above 4% a year · see Key things to watch ↑