NTPC Green Energy Limited

Utilities — Utilities - Renewable · NSE

₹90.15−₹0.51 (−0.56%)

DalalBaazaar Score

50 / 100

🟡 Moderate

Verdict

CAUTION

Risk

Very High

Driven by high debt relative to equity, short-term liabilities exceed short-term assets, negative free cash flow.

In simple words: The business is earning a fairly low return on the money invested in it, with both sales and profits growing well. Debt is the main factor to watch.

Decision support, not a buy or sell call.

As of 18 Oct 2026, 8:27 pm

Understanding the Business

Company site ↗

The 60-second version of NTPC Green Energy Limited — what it does, how it earns, and who it competes with, before any of the numbers below.

What does this company do?

NTPC Green Energy Limited engages in the renewable energy generation business in India. The company has a portfolio of 26,544 MWs solar and wind power projects. It also offers consultancy services, project management, and supervision services.

IndustryUtilities - Renewable

SectorUtilities

Employees261

Annual revenue₹2,771 Cr

How does it make money?

Turns over ₹2,771 Cr a year. Of every ₹100 of sales, about ₹19 reaches shareholders as profit, with ₹96 left at the operating level before interest, tax and depreciation. Each of its 261 employees supports ₹10.62 Cr of revenue a year, the signature of a capital- or asset-led business.

Revenue / employee₹10.62 Cr

Who are its competitors?

The closest listed comparisons in its industry are NTPC LTD, POWER GRID CORP. LTD., TATA POWER CO LTD. These are the companies its valuation and returns are measured against elsewhere in this report.

Compared side by side in Peers ↓

What is its competitive advantage?Little sign of one

Returns on capital of 2.9% are at or below what the capital likely costs. That is the financial pattern of a business competing largely on price, where advantage has to come from execution rather than position.

Peer median ROE13.7%

What is the outlook?

6 analysts covering the stock expect revenue to grow about 93.5% and earnings to grow about 178.4% in the year to 2028. These are estimates by people who follow the company, not a forecast for the wider industry.

Est. revenue growth+93.5%

Est. earnings growth+178.4%

Analysts6

What has been driving growth?

Growth has come mainly from selling more, rather than from keeping more of each sale. Over 3 years revenue moved +1582% while net margin moved -82% relative to itself. What this cannot tell you is which products, customers or geographies did the work — that lives in the segment disclosures of the annual report.

Revenue effect+1582%

Margin effect-82%

DalalBaazaar Score

50/ 100

Moderate

Weighted across six categories. Every point is explained below.

✗ Debt/Equity of 1.65x is high — earnings must service borrowings before shareholders see anything
✗ Current ratio of 0.24 — short-term liabilities exceed short-term assets
✗ Free cash flow is negative — growth is being funded by borrowing or fresh equity
✗ Interest cover of only 1.8x — little room if profits dip
✗ Debt has grown 72.9% a year — worth checking what it bought

Quality vs. Valuation

Company Quality

53/ 100

Average

How good the business is, ignoring the share price entirely.

Valuation

34/ 100

Expensive

What you are being asked to pay, ignoring how good the business is.

A reasonable business at a reasonable price — neither the quality nor the valuation stands out in either direction.

Historical Valuation

Current P/E

127.0x

2Y Median

153.7x

25 monthly readings · mean 188.6x · range 128.6x–312.6x

Sector Median

14.6x

median of 3 sector peers

🟢Current valuation is approximately 17% below its 2y median of 153.7x. Cheaper than its own history, which is worth a reason too: the market may be pricing in something the backward-looking numbers do not show.

⚠️Against its sector it trades 767% above the peer median of 14.6x.

vs. its own history

Fair

153.7x median over 25 months · -17%

vs. sector peers

Expensive

14.6x median of 3 peers · +767%

vs. generic bands

Expensive

Above 35x

EV/EBITDA

40.3x

PEG

2.82

What's Good / What's Bad

🟢 What's Going Well3

Margins are improving
EBITDA margin is up from 92.5% to 96.4% over 3 years.
Return on capital is rising
ROCE has improved from 0.8% to 2.9%.
Consistently profitable
Profitable in every one of the last 4 reported years.

🔴 What Needs Attention0

Nothing stands out as clearly deteriorating on the years of data available.

Red Flags

5 items require attention · 4 high · 1 watch

🔴Debt has risen sharplyFinancial
Total debt is up 417% over 3 years, from ₹6,137 Cr to ₹31,716 Cr.
🔴High leverageFinancial
Debt/Equity of 1.65x — earnings must service borrowings before shareholders see anything.
🔴Thin interest coverageFinancial
Operating profit covers interest only 1.8x — little room if earnings dip.
🔴Free cash flow negative for 4 yearsFinancial
The business has not covered its capital spending from operations for several years running, which has to be funded externally.
🟡Short-term liquidity is tightFinancial
Current ratio of 0.24 — near-term obligations exceed near-term assets.

Investment Thesis

🟢 Bull CaseWhat could make this work?

Margin expansion has further to run
EBITDA margin has risen from 92.5% to 96.4%. If that holds, profit compounds faster than sales and today's multiple looks cheaper in hindsight than it does now.
Earnings have proved durable
Profitable in every one of the last 4 reported years. Consistency lowers the risk that any single bad year is structural rather than cyclical.

🔴 Bear CaseWhat could go wrong?

The debt load needs earnings to hold up
Debt is 11.9x EBITDA. At that level a downturn in earnings turns a manageable balance sheet into a refinancing problem, and lenders get paid before shareholders.
A premium to the sector to defend
It trades 767% above the peer median. That premium needs a reason that persists, or it closes.
Several serious flags at once
4 high-severity checks triggered. Individually each has an explanation; together they raise the chance that something structural is wrong rather than a one-off.

🟡 Key Things to WatchMeasurable tripwires, set against where this company stands today

1Revenue growth stays above 117% a year✓ 156.2% CAGR
Latest reported year was 62.7%. The bar is set below the established compounding rate, so ordinary variation does not trip it.
2EBITDA margin holds above 94%✓ 96.4%
Two points below today's level — enough room for noise, tight enough to catch real compression.
3Debt / EBITDA falls below 3x✗ 11.9x
Already stretched, so this is a reduction target rather than a level to hold. Around 3x is where lenders typically start attaching conditions.
4Free cash flow remains positive✗ -₹12,880 Cr
Profit that never becomes cash eventually stops being profit.
5Interest cover stays above 3x✗ 1.8x
How much operating profit can fall before interest stops being comfortably covered.

Investment Checklist

6 / 12 checks passed

✗ Strong return on equity (ROE ≥ 15%)
✗ Strong return on capital employed (ROCE ≥ 15%)
✓ Healthy net margin (≥ 10%)
✗ Generates positive free cash flow
✗ Manageable leverage (Debt/Equity < 1.0)
✗ Adequate short-term liquidity (Current Ratio ≥ 1.0)
✓ Revenue growing year-over-year
✓ Profit growing year-over-year
✗ Not trading at an extreme valuation (P/E < 40x)
✓ Not buying right at the 52-week high
✓ Analyst consensus isn't majority-sell
✓ Short-term technical trend isn't bearish

Price history

Quick Metrics

3 good · 3 neutral · 5 weak

Market Cap

₹75,963 Cr

Mid Cap

Mid-sized — more growth headroom, but sharper swings than large caps

P/E (Trailing)

127.0x

Expensive

Expensive — verify against sector peers

P/B Ratio

4.07x

Fair

Moderate premium to the company's book value

EPS (TTM)

₹0.71

Profitable

Profitable on a per-share basis

ROE

2.8%

Weak

Weak capital efficiency

ROCE

2.9%

Weak

Low return on total capital employed

Debt/Equity

1.65x

High

High leverage

Revenue Growth (YoY)

62.7%

Healthy

Healthy top-line growth

Profit Growth (YoY)

38.5%

Healthy

Profits growing at a healthy clip

Dividend Yield

None

No dividend yield reported — usually means no payout, but verify if one was recently initiated

Free Cash Flow

-₹12,880 Cr

Cash burning

Spending more cash than the operations bring in

More Metrics

P/E (Forward)

34.5x

Improving

Below the trailing multiple — the street expects earnings to grow into the price

Operating Margin

58.4%

Good

Healthy core-business profitability

Net Margin

18.5%

Good

Strong bottom-line conversion

Current Ratio

0.24

Tight

Tight short-term liquidity

52W Range Position

17%

Mid-range

Technical Snapshot

SMA 20 / SMA 50

91.8 / 90.8

Bullish alignment (short > long)

Price vs SMA 200

Below

Long-term downtrend

RSI (14)

41.6

Neutral momentum

Financial Trend (4-Year)

Metric	FY23	FY24	FY25	FY26	3Y CAGR
Revenue	₹165 Cr	₹1,898 Cr	₹2,134 Cr	₹2,771 Cr	+156.2%
EBITDA	₹152 Cr	₹1,819 Cr	₹2,171 Cr	₹2,671 Cr	+159.8%
EBITDA Margin	92.5%	95.9%	101.7%	96.4%	—
PAT (Net Profit)	₹171 Cr	₹343 Cr	₹475 Cr	₹523 Cr	+45.1%
EPS	₹0.2	₹0.41	₹0.67	₹0.62	+45.0%
ROE	3.5%	5.5%	2.6%	2.8%	—
ROCE	0.8%	5.2%	3.5%	2.9%	—
Total Debt	₹6,137 Cr	₹13,856 Cr	₹19,441 Cr	₹31,716 Cr	+72.9%
Free Cash Flow	-₹734 Cr	-₹7,937 Cr	-₹9,986 Cr	-₹12,880 Cr	—

🟢 Revenue has grown at 156.2% a year over 3 years.

🟢 EBITDA has grown at 159.8% a year over 3 years.

🟢 EBITDA Margin has risen from 92.5% to 96.4% over 3 years (+3.9 pts).

🟢 PAT (Net Profit) has grown at 45.1% a year over 3 years.

🟢 EPS has grown at 45.0% a year over 3 years.

🟡 ROE has held roughly flat at 2.8% over 3 years.

🟢 ROCE has risen from 0.8% to 2.9% over 3 years (+2.1 pts).

🔴 Total Debt has grown at 72.9% a year over 3 years.

Balance Sheet & Cash Flow — FY2026

Total Assets

₹60,382 Cr

Total Liabilities

₹41,193 Cr

Cash & Equivalents

₹102 Cr

Operating Cash Flow

₹2,386 Cr

Capex

-₹15,266 Cr

Shareholding (proxy)

Institutional Holding

6.3%

Insider Holding

89.0%

Analyst Consensus

Recommendations

5 Buy · 1 Hold · 1 Sell

Target Price (Mean)

₹105.43

+16.9% vs CMP

Target Range

₹85 – ₹124

Peer Comparison

Company	P/E	ROE
NTPC LTD	11.0x	13.7%
POWER GRID CORP. LTD.	14.6x	15.8%
TATA POWER CO LTD	29.3x	9.8%

Recent News

2 mixed4 general

NTPC Green Energy share price target Oct 12: Key Stocks Eye Bullish Move

Alice Blue, 12 OctAnalyst view

🟡Mixed / dependsBroker commentary — an opinion about the price rather than new information about the business.

NTPC Green Energy (NTPCGREEN) Share/Stock Price Live, NSE

TechGraph, 10 Oct

NTPC Green Energy Share Price: Buy or Sell

Univest, 03 Sept

Why NTPC Green Listed Quiet Despite the Renewable Energy Boom

HDFC Sky, 06 Oct

NTPC Green Energy Ltd Peer Comparison – Compare with Others

Value Research, 30 Aug

NTPC Green Energy shares gain 3% after robust Q1 earnings

Moneycontrol.com, 23 JulPrice move

🟡Mixed / dependsA price move, which is not by itself a change in the business. Worth finding the cause before reading it as either good or bad.

Watch Items

Cross-check against the company's latest quarterly filing / investor presentation before acting.

DalalBaazaar Thesis

StrongBusiness Quality

MiddlingGrowth · Profitability · Valuation

WeakFinancial Health · Risk

Points for each in the Score ↑

Unremarkable in both directions

A reasonable business at a reasonable price. Nothing here is alarming and nothing is compelling, which usually means the decision rests on things this data cannot see — the industry's direction, management's intent, and what else is available to you. 4 high-severity red flags sit above this conclusion and should be read first.

3 of 5 tripwires tripped — Debt / EBITDA falls below 3x; Free cash flow remains positive; Interest cover stays above 3x · see Key things to watch ↑