Senco Gold Limited

Consumer Cyclical — Luxury Goods · NSE

₹337.60+₹17.15 (+5.35%)

DalalBaazaar Score

71 / 100

🟢 Good

Verdict

REASONABLE

Risk

High

Driven by moderate debt load, negative free cash flow, small-cap size, which brings sharper price swings.

In simple words: Strong business and financial position, though profits are falling even as sales grow. Cash generation is currently the main factor to watch.

Decision support, not a buy or sell call.

As of 18 Oct 2026, 7:03 pm

Understanding the Business

Company site ↗

The 60-second version of Senco Gold Limited — what it does, how it earns, and who it competes with, before any of the numbers below.

What does this company do?

Senco Gold Limited engages in the manufacture and trading of jewelry and articles made of gold, silver, platinum, and other precious and semi-precious stones in India and internationally. It also manufactures diamond jewelry.

IndustryLuxury Goods

SectorConsumer Cyclical

Employees3,309

Annual revenue₹8,417 Cr

How does it make money?

Turns over ₹8,417 Cr a year. Of every ₹100 of sales, about ₹7 reaches shareholders as profit, with ₹12 left at the operating level before interest, tax and depreciation. Each of its 3,309 employees supports ₹2.54 Cr of revenue a year, the signature of a capital- or asset-led business.

Revenue / employee₹2.54 Cr

Who are its competitors?

The closest listed comparisons in its industry are TITAN COMPANY LIMITED, TRENT LTD, AVENUE SUPERMARTS LIMITED, ASIAN PAINTS LIMITED. These are the companies its valuation and returns are measured against elsewhere in this report.

Compared side by side in Peers ↓

What is its competitive advantage?The numbers suggest a real one

ROCE has stayed above 15% in every year available and stands at 33.0%. Returns that high normally get competed away; when they persist, something is protecting them, and its ROE of 22.8% against a peer median of 25.9% is consistent with that. What that something is — brand, scale, switching costs, regulation — the accounts cannot tell you.

Peer median ROE25.9%

What is the outlook?

6 analysts covering the stock expect revenue to grow about 16.6% and earnings to grow about 18.5% in the year to 2028. These are estimates by people who follow the company, not a forecast for the wider industry.

Est. revenue growth+16.6%

Est. earnings growth+18.5%

Analysts6

What has been driving growth?

Sales and margins have both contributed to where profit is now. Over 3 years revenue moved +107% while net margin moved +75% relative to itself. What this cannot tell you is which products, customers or geographies did the work — that lives in the segment disclosures of the annual report.

Revenue effect+107%

Margin effect+75%

DalalBaazaar Score

71/ 100

Good

Weighted across six categories. Every point is explained below.

✓ Beta of 0.38 — historically steadier than the index
✗ Small Cap: thinner liquidity and sharper drawdowns are normal
✗ Profits have swung sharply from year to year — earnings are hard to forecast
✗ Negative free cash flow means dependence on external funding

Quality vs. Valuation

Company Quality

73/ 100

Good

How good the business is, ignoring the share price entirely.

Valuation

86/ 100

Cheap

What you are being asked to pay, ignoring how good the business is.

A good business currently available at an undemanding price — the combination this framework is built to look for.

Historical Valuation

Current P/E

9.7x

3Y Median

31.7x

40 monthly readings · mean 32.4x · range 9.2x–59.6x

Sector Median

69.2x

median of 4 sector peers

🟢Current valuation is approximately 69% below its 3y median of 31.7x. Cheaper than its own history, which is worth a reason too: the market may be pricing in something the backward-looking numbers do not show.

🟢Against its sector it trades 86% below the peer median of 69.2x.

vs. its own history

Cheap

31.7x median over 40 months · -69%

vs. sector peers

Cheap

69.2x median of 4 peers · -86%

vs. generic bands

Cheap

Below 15x

EV/EBITDA

8.0x

PEG

0.18

What's Good / What's Bad

🟢 What's Going Well5

Margins are improving
EBITDA margin is up from 8.4% to 12.2% over 3 years.
Return on equity is rising
ROE has improved from 16.8% to 22.8%.
Return on capital is rising
ROCE has improved from 25.3% to 33.0%.
High return on capital employed
ROCE of 33.0% is the mark of a business that converts capital into profit efficiently.
Consistently profitable
Profitable in every one of the last 4 reported years.

🔴 What Needs Attention0

Nothing stands out as clearly deteriorating on the years of data available.

Red Flags

5 items require attention · 5 high

🔴Debt has risen sharplyFinancial
Total debt is up 94% over 3 years, from ₹1,389 Cr to ₹2,699 Cr.
🔴Free cash flow negative for 4 yearsFinancial
The business has not covered its capital spending from operations for several years running, which has to be funded externally.
🔴Profit up while operating cash flow fallsFinancial
Reported profit rose but cash generated by operations declined — worth checking whether earnings are being supported by non-cash items or working capital.
🔴Receivables growing faster than salesFinancial
Receivables up 395% against revenue up 107% — sales are being booked faster than they are collected.
🔴Inventory building faster than salesFinancial
Inventory up 181% against revenue up 107% — stock may not be moving.

Investment Thesis

🟢 Bull CaseWhat could make this work?

Capital compounds at a high rate
ROCE of 33.0% means each rupee reinvested earns well above what capital costs. If the company can keep deploying at this rate, growth creates value rather than just consuming cash.
Margin expansion has further to run
EBITDA margin has risen from 8.4% to 12.2%. If that holds, profit compounds faster than sales and today's multiple looks cheaper in hindsight than it does now.
Priced below its own history
The stock trades 69% below its own median multiple. If the business performs as it has and simply re-rates back to normal, that gap is return on its own.
Cheaper than its peers
It trades 86% below the sector median. Either the market sees a problem the numbers do not show, or the discount closes.
Earnings have proved durable
Profitable in every one of the last 4 reported years. Consistency lowers the risk that any single bad year is structural rather than cyclical.

🔴 Bear CaseWhat could go wrong?

Sales are being booked faster than collected
Receivables are up 395% against revenue up 107%. If customers keep taking longer to pay, reported profit will not turn into cash — and write-offs follow if some never do.
Earnings are hard to forecast
Profit has swung sharply from year to year, so any single year — good or bad — is a weak guide to the next. Cyclical earnings deserve lower multiples for that reason.
Size brings its own risk
Small Cap businesses are thinly traded, so exits are harder in a falling market and single events move the price more than they would for a larger company.
Several serious flags at once
5 high-severity checks triggered. Individually each has an explanation; together they raise the chance that something structural is wrong rather than a one-off.

🟡 Key Things to WatchMeasurable tripwires, set against where this company stands today

1Revenue growth stays above 21% a year✓ 27.4% CAGR
Latest reported year was 67.3%. The bar is set below the established compounding rate, so ordinary variation does not trip it.
2EBITDA margin holds above 10%✓ 12.2%
Two points below today's level — enough room for noise, tight enough to catch real compression.
3Debt / EBITDA stays below 2x✗ 2.6x
The ratio lenders write covenants against; it survives a small or negative equity base, unlike Debt/Equity.
4Free cash flow remains positive✗ -₹850 Cr
Profit that never becomes cash eventually stops being profit.
5ROCE stays above 30%✓ 33.0%
Falling returns on capital are usually competition arriving, and show up here before they reach the margin.

Investment Checklist

7 / 12 checks passed

✓ Strong return on equity (ROE ≥ 15%)
✓ Strong return on capital employed (ROCE ≥ 15%)
✗ Healthy net margin (≥ 10%)
✗ Generates positive free cash flow
✗ Manageable leverage (Debt/Equity < 1.0)
✓ Adequate short-term liquidity (Current Ratio ≥ 1.0)
✓ Revenue growing year-over-year
✗ Profit growing year-over-year
✓ Not trading at an extreme valuation (P/E < 40x)
✓ Not buying right at the 52-week high
✓ Analyst consensus isn't majority-sell
✗ Short-term technical trend isn't bearish

Price history

Quick Metrics

5 good · 4 neutral · 2 weak

Market Cap

₹5,533 Cr

Small Cap

Smaller company — thin liquidity and deep drawdowns are normal here

P/E (Trailing)

9.7x

Cheap

Cheap against the generic band

P/B Ratio

2.20x

Fair

Moderate premium to the company's book value

EPS (TTM)

₹34.83

Profitable

Profitable on a per-share basis

ROE

22.8%

Strong

Strong capital efficiency

ROCE

33.0%

Strong

Earns comfortably above its likely cost of capital

Debt/Equity

1.07x

Moderate

Moderate leverage

Revenue Growth (YoY)

67.3%

Healthy

Healthy top-line growth

Profit Growth (YoY)

-3.3%

Falling

Profits are shrinking

Dividend Yield

0.52%

Modest

Small cash return — most of the return has to come from the price

Free Cash Flow

-₹850 Cr

Cash burning

Spending more cash than the operations bring in

More Metrics

P/E (Forward)

12.4x

Flat

At or above the trailing multiple — no earnings uplift is being priced in

Operating Margin

6.3%

Average

Average margins

Net Margin

5.9%

Average

Average bottom-line conversion

Current Ratio

1.54

Comfortable

Healthy short-term liquidity

Beta (vs Nifty)

0.38

Defensive

Steadier than the market

52W Range Position

40%

Mid-range

Technical Snapshot

SMA 20 / SMA 50

330.3 / 345.8

Bearish alignment (short < long)

Price vs SMA 200

Above

Long-term uptrend

RSI (14)

53.4

Neutral momentum

Financial Trend (4-Year)

Metric	FY23	FY24	FY25	FY26	3Y CAGR
Revenue	₹4,070 Cr	₹5,232 Cr	₹6,318 Cr	₹8,417 Cr	+27.4%
EBITDA	₹343 Cr	₹396 Cr	₹407 Cr	₹1,029 Cr	+44.2%
EBITDA Margin	8.4%	7.6%	6.4%	12.2%	—
PAT (Net Profit)	₹158 Cr	₹181 Cr	₹159 Cr	₹574 Cr	+53.6%
EPS	₹11.44	₹12.01	₹10.08	₹35.06	+45.3%
ROE	16.8%	13.3%	8.1%	22.8%	—
ROCE	25.3%	21.5%	15.3%	33.0%	—
Total Debt	₹1,389 Cr	₹1,761 Cr	₹2,059 Cr	₹2,699 Cr	+24.8%
Free Cash Flow	-₹109 Cr	-₹61 Cr	-₹259 Cr	-₹850 Cr	—

🟢 Revenue has grown at 27.4% a year over 3 years.

🟢 EBITDA has grown at 44.2% a year over 3 years.

🟢 EBITDA Margin has risen from 8.4% to 12.2% over 3 years (+3.8 pts).

🟢 PAT (Net Profit) has grown at 53.6% a year over 3 years.

🟢 EPS has grown at 45.3% a year over 3 years.

🟢 ROE has risen from 16.8% to 22.8% over 3 years (+6.1 pts).

🟢 ROCE has risen from 25.3% to 33.0% over 3 years (+7.7 pts).

🔴 Total Debt has grown at 24.8% a year over 3 years.

Balance Sheet & Cash Flow — FY2026

Total Assets

₹7,062 Cr

Total Liabilities

₹4,548 Cr

Cash & Equivalents

₹38 Cr

Operating Cash Flow

-₹789 Cr

Capex

-₹61 Cr

Shareholding (proxy)

Institutional Holding

14.7%

Insider Holding

64.5%

Corporate Actions

Dividend Rate

₹1.75

Ex-Dividend Date

24 Aug 2026

Analyst Consensus

Recommendations

4 Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell

Target Price (Mean)

₹485.5

+43.8% vs CMP

Target Range

₹355 – ₹661

Peer Comparison

Company	P/E	ROE
TITAN COMPANY LIMITED	68.5x	36.7%
TRENT LTD	87.2x	25.9%
AVENUE SUPERMARTS LIMITED	69.9x	12.7%
ASIAN PAINTS LIMITED	46.9x	22.3%

Recent News

1 mixed5 general

Senco Gold Share Price

Upstox, 16 Oct

Gold Stocks With Strong Fundamentals: Top Picks to Consider

Univest, 18 Oct

PC Jeweller, Senco Gold, other jewellery stocks rise up to 17%: Here's why

Moneycontrol.com, 16 Oct

Senco Gold Limited (SENCO.NS) Stock Price, News, Quote & History

Yahoo! Finance Canada, 01 Oct

Senco, PC Jeweller zoom up to 17%; why are gold-related stocks dazzling?

Business Standard, 16 Oct

Need To Know: Analysts Are Much More Bullish On Senco Gold Limited (NSE:SENCO) Revenues

Simply Wall Street, 17 AugAnalyst view

🟡Mixed / dependsBroker commentary — an opinion about the price rather than new information about the business.

Watch Items

Cross-check against the company's latest quarterly filing / investor presentation before acting.

DalalBaazaar Thesis

StrongBusiness Quality · Growth · Profitability · Valuation

MiddlingFinancial Health · Risk

Points for each in the Score ↑

Attractive on both counts

A good business currently available at an undemanding price — the combination this framework exists to look for. The work left is qualitative: whether the advantage the numbers imply is one you can identify and expect to last. 5 high-severity red flags sit above this conclusion and should be read first.

2 of 5 tripwires tripped — Debt / EBITDA stays below 2x; Free cash flow remains positive · see Key things to watch ↑