New Swan Multitech Limited

🔴 Bear CaseWhat could go wrong?

1. Margins are being competed away
   EBITDA margin has fallen from 14.1% to 12.4%. If the trend continues, profit falls even on flat sales — and margin decline rarely reverses quickly.
2. Sales are being booked faster than collected
   Receivables are up 56% against revenue up 16%. If customers keep taking longer to pay, reported profit will not turn into cash — and write-offs follow if some never do.
3. Growth barely outpaces inflation
   Revenue compounding at 5.1% a year is close to the rate prices rise, so the business is gaining little ground in real terms. That leaves the share price dependent on a re-rating rather than on earnings growth.
4. Returns on shareholder capital are falling
   ROE has dropped from 31.8% to 10.8%. Each rupee of equity earns less than it did, so profit growth increasingly depends on raising more capital rather than on the existing base working harder.
5. Size brings its own risk
   Micro Cap businesses are thinly traded, so exits are harder in a falling market and single events move the price more than they would for a larger company.