Transport Corporation of India Limited

Industrials — Integrated Freight & Logistics · NSE

₹875.00+₹0.30 (+0.03%)

DalalBaazaar Score

71 / 100

🟢 Good

Verdict

REASONABLE

Risk

Low

Driven by small-cap size, which brings sharper price swings, falling profits.

In simple words: Strong business and financial position, though profits are falling even as sales grow. The direction of profits is the main factor to watch.

Decision support, not a buy or sell call.

As of 18 Oct 2026, 6:07 pm

Mixed / neutral. No major red flags jump out, but nothing here screams "obviously cheap" either. This is a name that needs a peer comparison and a view on near-term earnings triggers before sizing a position.

Understanding the Business

Company site ↗

The 60-second version of Transport Corporation of India Limited — what it does, how it earns, and who it competes with, before any of the numbers below.

What does this company do?

Transport Corporation of India Limited provides end-to-end integrated supply chain and logistics solutions in India. The company operates through Freight Division, Supply Chain Solutions Division, Seaways Division, and Energy Division segments.

IndustryIntegrated Freight & Logistics

SectorIndustrials

Employees4,165

Annual revenue₹4,913 Cr

How does it make money?

Turns over ₹4,913 Cr a year. Of every ₹100 of sales, about ₹9 reaches shareholders as profit, with ₹13 left at the operating level before interest, tax and depreciation. Each of its 4,165 employees supports ₹1.18 Cr of revenue a year, the signature of a capital- or asset-led business.

EBITDA margin13.2%

Net margin9.3%

Revenue / employee₹1.18 Cr

Who are its competitors?

The closest listed comparisons in its industry are LARSEN & TOUBRO LTD., SIEMENS LTD, ABB INDIA LIMITED. These are the companies its valuation and returns are measured against elsewhere in this report.

LARSEN & TOUBRO LTD.P/E 30.1x · ROE 15.2%

SIEMENS LTDP/E 88.8x · ROE 10.5%

ABB INDIA LIMITEDP/E 92.6x · ROE 19.1%

What is its competitive advantage?Some evidence

ROCE of 18.1% is above what capital typically costs, which suggests some pricing power, though not yet the sustained, wide gap that marks a durable advantage.

ROCE18.1%

ROE17.8%

Peer median ROE15.2%

What is the outlook?

6 analysts covering the stock expect revenue to grow about 11.0% and earnings to grow about 12.1% in the year to 2028. These are estimates by people who follow the company, not a forecast for the wider industry.

Est. revenue growth+11.0%

Est. earnings growth+12.1%

Analysts6

What has been driving growth?

Growth has come mainly from selling more, rather than from keeping more of each sale. Over 3 years revenue moved +30% while net margin moved +11% relative to itself. What this cannot tell you is which products, customers or geographies did the work — that lives in the segment disclosures of the annual report.

Revenue effect+30%

Margin effect+11%

DalalBaazaar Score

71/ 100

Good

Weighted across six categories. Every point is explained below.

✓ ROCE of 18.1% is comfortably above a typical cost of capital
• ROCE has been broadly stable
• EBITDA margin of 13.2% is respectable
• Net margin of 9.0% is reasonable
• Revenue has compounded at 9.1% a year, which is the base these returns are earned on

Quality vs. Valuation

Company Quality

70/ 100

Good

How good the business is, ignoring the share price entirely.

Valuation

78/ 100

Cheap

What you are being asked to pay, ignoring how good the business is.

A good business currently available at an undemanding price — the combination this framework is built to look for.

Historical Valuation

Current P/E

14.7x

3Y Median

20.5x

40 monthly readings · mean 20.8x · range 14.6x–26.0x

Sector Median

88.8x

median of 3 sector peers

🟢Current valuation is approximately 28% below its 3y median of 20.5x. Cheaper than its own history, which is worth a reason too: the market may be pricing in something the backward-looking numbers do not show.

🟢Against its sector it trades 83% below the peer median of 88.8x.

vs. its own history

Cheap

20.5x median over 40 months · -28%

vs. sector peers

Cheap

88.8x median of 3 peers · -83%

vs. generic bands

Cheap

Below 15x

P/E (Trailing)

14.7x

P/B

2.62x

EV/EBITDA

10.7x

PEG

1.14

Dividend Yield

1.14%

What's Good / What's Bad

🟢 What's Going Well3

Valuation below its historical average
At 14.7x the stock trades 28% below its own median of 20.5x.
Very low debt
Debt/Equity of 0.12x leaves the balance sheet with plenty of headroom.
Consistently profitable
Profitable in every one of the last 4 reported years.

🔴 What Needs Attention3

Debt is rising
Total debt is up 240% over 3 years — worth checking what it funded.
Return on capital is falling
ROCE has declined from 20.3% to 18.1% — often a sign of competition or overexpansion.
Inventory building faster than sales
Inventory is up 195% against revenue growth of 30% — stock may not be moving.

Red Flags

2 items require attention · 2 high

🔴Debt has risen sharplyFinancial
Total debt is up 240% over 3 years, from ₹92 Cr to ₹312 Cr.
🔴Inventory building faster than salesFinancial
Inventory up 195% against revenue up 30% — stock may not be moving.

Investment Thesis

🟢 Bull CaseWhat could make this work?

Capital compounds at a high rate
ROCE of 18.1% means each rupee reinvested earns well above what capital costs. If the company can keep deploying at this rate, growth creates value rather than just consuming cash.
Priced below its own history
The stock trades 28% below its own median multiple. If the business performs as it has and simply re-rates back to normal, that gap is return on its own.
Cheaper than its peers
It trades 83% below the sector median. Either the market sees a problem the numbers do not show, or the discount closes.
Self-funding with balance-sheet headroom
Positive free cash flow of ₹31 Cr alongside low debt means growth, buybacks or dividends need no outside money — and a downturn can be absorbed rather than refinanced.
Earnings have proved durable
Profitable in every one of the last 4 reported years. Consistency lowers the risk that any single bad year is structural rather than cyclical.

🔴 Bear CaseWhat could go wrong?

Size brings its own risk
Small Cap businesses are thinly traded, so exits are harder in a falling market and single events move the price more than they would for a larger company.
Several serious flags at once
2 high-severity checks triggered. Individually each has an explanation; together they raise the chance that something structural is wrong rather than a one-off.

🟡 Key Things to WatchMeasurable tripwires, set against where this company stands today

1EBITDA margin holds above 11%✓ 13.2%
Two points below today's level — enough room for noise, tight enough to catch real compression.
2Revenue growth stays above 7% a year✓ 9.1% CAGR
Latest reported year was 9.6%. The bar is set below the established compounding rate, so ordinary variation does not trip it.
3Free cash flow remains positive✓ ₹31 Cr
Profit that never becomes cash eventually stops being profit.
4Debt / EBITDA stays below 2x✓ 0.5x
The ratio lenders write covenants against; it survives a small or negative equity base, unlike Debt/Equity.
5ROCE stays above 15%✓ 18.1%
Falling returns on capital are usually competition arriving, and show up here before they reach the margin.

Investment Checklist

9 / 12 checks passed

✓ Strong return on equity (ROE ≥ 15%)
✓ Strong return on capital employed (ROCE ≥ 15%)
✗ Healthy net margin (≥ 10%)
✓ Generates positive free cash flow
✓ Manageable leverage (Debt/Equity < 1.0)
✓ Adequate short-term liquidity (Current Ratio ≥ 1.0)
✓ Revenue growing year-over-year
✗ Profit growing year-over-year
✓ Not trading at an extreme valuation (P/E < 40x)
✓ Not buying right at the 52-week high
✓ Analyst consensus isn't majority-sell
✗ Short-term technical trend isn't bearish

Price history

Quick Metrics

6 good · 4 neutral · 1 weak

Market Cap

₹6,723 Cr

Small Cap

Smaller company — thin liquidity and deep drawdowns are normal here

P/E (Trailing)

14.7x

Cheap

Cheap against the generic band

P/B Ratio

2.62x

Fair

Moderate premium to the company's book value

EPS (TTM)

₹59.42

Profitable

Profitable on a per-share basis

ROE

17.8%

Strong

Strong capital efficiency

ROCE

18.1%

Strong

Earns comfortably above its likely cost of capital

Debt/Equity

0.12x

Low

Conservative leverage

Revenue Growth (YoY)

9.6%

Modest

Modest growth

Profit Growth (YoY)

-0.9%

Falling

Profits are shrinking

Dividend Yield

1.14%

Modest

Small cash return — most of the return has to come from the price

Free Cash Flow

₹31 Cr

Cash generative

Generates cash even after funding its capex

More Metrics

CMP

₹875

P/E (Forward)

12.7x

Improving

Below the trailing multiple — the street expects earnings to grow into the price

Operating Margin

7.9%

Average

Average margins

Net Margin

9.0%

Average

Average bottom-line conversion

Current Ratio

2.68

Comfortable

Healthy short-term liquidity

Beta (vs Nifty)

-0.09

Defensive

Steadier than the market

52W Range Position

18%

Mid-range

Technical Snapshot

SMA 20 / SMA 50

856.8 / 876.2

Bearish alignment (short < long)

Price vs SMA 200

Below

Long-term downtrend

RSI (14)

42.4

Neutral momentum

Financial Trend (4-Year)

Metric	FY23	FY24	FY25	FY26	3Y CAGR
Revenue	₹3,779 Cr	₹4,019 Cr	₹4,488 Cr	₹4,913 Cr	+9.1%
EBITDA	₹503 Cr	₹531 Cr	₹594 Cr	₹646 Cr	+8.7%
EBITDA Margin	13.3%	13.2%	13.2%	13.2%	—
PAT (Net Profit)	₹317 Cr	₹351 Cr	₹412 Cr	₹456 Cr	+12.9%
EPS	₹40.83	₹45.06	₹53.32	₹59.38	+13.3%
ROE	18.6%	17.5%	19.1%	17.8%	—
ROCE	20.3%	18.0%	19.8%	18.1%	—
Total Debt	₹92 Cr	₹194 Cr	₹242 Cr	₹312 Cr	+50.4%
Free Cash Flow	₹205 Cr	₹56 Cr	₹5 Cr	₹31 Cr	-46.8%

🟢 Revenue has grown at 9.1% a year over 3 years.

🟢 EBITDA has grown at 8.7% a year over 3 years.

🟡 EBITDA Margin has held roughly flat at 13.2% over 3 years.

🟢 PAT (Net Profit) has grown at 12.9% a year over 3 years.

🟢 EPS has grown at 13.3% a year over 3 years.

🟡 ROE has held roughly flat at 17.8% over 3 years.

🔴 ROCE has fallen from 20.3% to 18.1% over 3 years (-2.3 pts).

🔴 Total Debt has grown at 50.4% a year over 3 years.

🔴 Free Cash Flow has shrunk at 46.8% a year over 3 years.

Balance Sheet & Cash Flow — FY2026

Total Assets

₹3,482 Cr

Total Liabilities

₹877 Cr

Total Debt

₹312 Cr

Cash & Equivalents

₹93 Cr

Operating Cash Flow

₹444 Cr

Capex

-₹414 Cr

Shareholding (proxy)

Institutional Holding

12.7%

Insider Holding

71.3%

Corporate Actions

Dividend Rate

₹10

Ex-Dividend Date

17 Jul 2026

Analyst Consensus

Recommendations

6 Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell

Target Price (Mean)

₹1,168.33

+33.5% vs CMP

Target Range

₹1,100 – ₹1,318

Peer Comparison

Company	P/E	ROE
LARSEN & TOUBRO LTD.	30.1x	15.2%
SIEMENS LTD	88.8x	10.5%
ABB INDIA LIMITED	92.6x	19.1%

Recent News

4 positive1 mixed1 general

Transport Corporation of India vs Nifty 50 Return Comparison

Univest, 13 Oct

Transport Corporation Of India Announces ₹150 Crore Buyback Of 1,562,500 Shares At ₹960

Sahi, 12 OctCapital return

🟢Potentially positiveCash or shares returned to holders. A buyback is only good value if the shares were cheap when bought.

TCI buyback offer opens Oct 15; shareholders can tender at ₹960

scanx.trade, 15 OctCapital return

🟢Potentially positiveCash or shares returned to holders. A buyback is only good value if the shares were cheap when bought.

Transport Corporation of India shares jump over 14% as board plans to consider buyback proposal next week

Upstox, 25 SeptCapital return

🟢Potentially positiveCash or shares returned to holders. A buyback is only good value if the shares were cheap when bought.

TCI sets Rs 150 crore buyback at 14 per cent premium as shares hover near 52-week low

Dalal Street Investment Journal, 13 OctCapital return

🟢Potentially positiveCash or shares returned to holders. A buyback is only good value if the shares were cheap when bought.

Here's why shares of Transport Corporation of India surged up to 14% on Friday - CNBC TV18

LinkedIn, 24 SeptPrice move

🟡Mixed / dependsA price move, which is not by itself a change in the business. Worth finding the cause before reading it as either good or bad.

Watch Items

Cross-check against the company's latest quarterly filing / investor presentation before acting.

DalalBaazaar Thesis

🟢Business QualityStrong13.3/20

🟢Financial HealthStrong15.6/20

🟢GrowthStrong13.4/20

🟢ProfitabilityStrong10.2/15

🟢ValuationAttractive11.8/15

🟢RiskLow6.7/10

Attractive on both counts

A good business currently available at an undemanding price — the combination this framework exists to look for. The work left is qualitative: whether the advantage the numbers imply is one you can identify and expect to last. 2 high-severity red flags sit above this conclusion and should be read first.

This thesis breaks if

✓EBITDA margin holds above 11%13.2%
✓Revenue growth stays above 7% a year9.1% CAGR
✓Free cash flow remains positive₹31 Cr
✓Debt / EBITDA stays below 2x0.5x
✓ROCE stays above 15%18.1%