TCI Express Limited

Industrials — Integrated Freight & Logistics · NSE

₹477.80+₹2.20 (+0.46%)

DalalBaazaar Score

40 / 100

🟡 Moderate

Verdict

CAUTION

Risk

High

Driven by high debt relative to equity, negative free cash flow, micro-cap size, which brings thin liquidity.

In simple words: Reasonable but unspectacular business quality, with modest growth. Debt is the main factor to watch.

Decision support, not a buy or sell call.

As of 18 Oct 2026, 7:46 pm

Understanding the Business

Company site ↗

The 60-second version of TCI Express Limited — what it does, how it earns, and who it competes with, before any of the numbers below.

What does this company do?

TCI Express Limited provides express delivery solutions in India and internationally. It provides surface express; domestic and international air express; e-commerce express; C2C express; rail express; and cold chain express services.

IndustryIntegrated Freight & Logistics

SectorIndustrials

Employees2,441

Annual revenue₹1,237 Cr

How does it make money?

Turns over ₹1,237 Cr a year. Of every ₹100 of sales, about ₹7 reaches shareholders as profit, with ₹12 left at the operating level before interest, tax and depreciation. Each of its 2,441 employees supports ₹50.7 lakh of revenue a year, the signature of a people-led business.

Revenue / employee₹50.7 lakh

Who are its competitors?

The closest listed comparisons in its industry are LARSEN & TOUBRO LTD., SIEMENS LTD, ABB INDIA LIMITED. These are the companies its valuation and returns are measured against elsewhere in this report.

Compared side by side in Peers ↓

What is its competitive advantage?Little sign of one

Returns on capital of 12.6% are at or below what the capital likely costs. That is the financial pattern of a business competing largely on price, where advantage has to come from execution rather than position.

Peer median ROE15.2%

What is the outlook?

6 analysts covering the stock expect revenue to grow about 8.6% and earnings to grow about 15.2% in the year to 2028. These are estimates by people who follow the company, not a forecast for the wider industry.

Est. revenue growth+8.6%

Est. earnings growth+15.2%

Analysts6

What has been driving growth?

Profit has moved mainly because margins changed, not because the business sold much more. Over 3 years revenue moved -0% while net margin moved -41% relative to itself. What this cannot tell you is which products, customers or geographies did the work — that lives in the segment disclosures of the annual report.

Revenue effect-0%

Margin effect-41%

DalalBaazaar Score

40/ 100

Moderate

Weighted across six categories. Every point is explained below.

✗ Revenue has contracted at 0.1% a year
✗ Profit has declined at 16.4% a year

Quality vs. Valuation

Company Quality

34/ 100

Weak

How good the business is, ignoring the share price entirely.

Valuation

60/ 100

Fair

What you are being asked to pay, ignoring how good the business is.

Weak on business quality and not cheap enough to compensate.

Historical Valuation

Current P/E

21.8x

3Y Median

25.9x

40 monthly readings · mean 27.6x · range 17.9x–40.0x

Sector Median

88.8x

median of 3 sector peers

🟢Current valuation is approximately 16% below its 3y median of 25.9x. Cheaper than its own history, which is worth a reason too: the market may be pricing in something the backward-looking numbers do not show.

🟢Against its sector it trades 75% below the peer median of 88.8x.

vs. its own history

Fair

25.9x median over 40 months · -16%

vs. sector peers

Cheap

88.8x median of 3 peers · -75%

vs. generic bands

Fair

15x–35x

EV/EBITDA

13.2x

PEG

15.60

What's Good / What's Bad

🟢 What's Going Well1

Consistently profitable
Profitable in every one of the last 4 reported years.

🔴 What Needs Attention2

Return on equity is falling
ROE has dropped from 23.4% to 9.9% — each rupee of shareholder capital earns less than it did.
Return on capital is falling
ROCE has declined from 30.5% to 12.6% — often a sign of competition or overexpansion.

Red Flags

5 items require attention · 2 high · 3 watch

🔴Debt has risen sharplyFinancial
Total debt is up 796% over 3 years, from ₹7 Cr to ₹63 Cr.
🔴High leverageFinancial
Debt/Equity of 7.74x — earnings must service borrowings before shareholders see anything.
🟡Free cash flow is negativeFinancial
Free cash flow was -₹24 Cr in the latest year.
🟡Profit is decliningFinancial
Net profit is down 42% over 3 years.
🟡Margins are compressingFinancial
EBITDA margin is down 4.7 points over 3 years.

Investment Thesis

🟢 Bull CaseWhat could make this work?

Cheaper than its peers
It trades 75% below the sector median. Either the market sees a problem the numbers do not show, or the discount closes.
Earnings have proved durable
Profitable in every one of the last 4 reported years. Consistency lowers the risk that any single bad year is structural rather than cyclical.

🔴 Bear CaseWhat could go wrong?

Margins are being competed away
EBITDA margin has fallen from 16.3% to 11.6%. If the trend continues, profit falls even on flat sales — and margin decline rarely reverses quickly.
Leverage amplifies any setback
Debt/Equity of 7.74x. Interest is payable whether or not the business has a good year.
Returns on shareholder capital are falling
ROE has dropped from 23.4% to 9.9%. Each rupee of equity earns less than it did, so profit growth increasingly depends on raising more capital rather than on the existing base working harder.
Size brings its own risk
Micro Cap businesses are thinly traded, so exits are harder in a falling market and single events move the price more than they would for a larger company.
Several serious flags at once
2 high-severity checks triggered. Individually each has an explanation; together they raise the chance that something structural is wrong rather than a one-off.

🟡 Key Things to WatchMeasurable tripwires, set against where this company stands today

1EBITDA margin holds above 10%✓ 11.6%
Two points below today's level — enough room for noise, tight enough to catch real compression.
2Free cash flow remains positive✗ -₹24 Cr
Profit that never becomes cash eventually stops being profit.
3Debt / EBITDA stays below 2x✓ 0.4x
The ratio lenders write covenants against; it survives a small or negative equity base, unlike Debt/Equity.
4ROCE stays above 10%✓ 12.6%
Falling returns on capital are usually competition arriving, and show up here before they reach the margin.
5Valuation vs its own median of 25.9x✓ 21.8x today
A re-rating above its own history needs a reason; without one it is just a higher price.

Investment Checklist

6 / 12 checks passed

✗ Strong return on equity (ROE ≥ 15%)
✗ Strong return on capital employed (ROCE ≥ 15%)
✗ Healthy net margin (≥ 10%)
✗ Generates positive free cash flow
✗ Manageable leverage (Debt/Equity < 1.0)
✓ Adequate short-term liquidity (Current Ratio ≥ 1.0)
✓ Revenue growing year-over-year
✓ Profit growing year-over-year
✓ Not trading at an extreme valuation (P/E < 40x)
✓ Not buying right at the 52-week high
✓ Analyst consensus isn't majority-sell
✗ Short-term technical trend isn't bearish

Price history

Quick Metrics

1 good · 8 neutral · 2 weak

Market Cap

₹1,837 Cr

Micro Cap

Smaller company — thin liquidity and deep drawdowns are normal here

P/E (Trailing)

21.8x

Fair

Fairly valued against the generic band

P/B Ratio

2.24x

Fair

Moderate premium to the company's book value

EPS (TTM)

₹21.88

Profitable

Profitable on a per-share basis

ROE

9.9%

Moderate

Moderate capital efficiency

ROCE

12.6%

Moderate

Moderate return on the capital in the business

Debt/Equity

7.74x

High

High leverage

Revenue Growth (YoY)

9.3%

Modest

Modest growth

Profit Growth (YoY)

1.4%

Modest

Slow profit growth

Dividend Yield

1.47%

Modest

Small cash return — most of the return has to come from the price

Free Cash Flow

-₹24 Cr

Cash burning

Spending more cash than the operations bring in

More Metrics

P/E (Forward)

16.6x

Improving

Below the trailing multiple — the street expects earnings to grow into the price

Operating Margin

7.8%

Average

Average margins

Net Margin

6.5%

Average

Average bottom-line conversion

Current Ratio

3.12

Comfortable

Healthy short-term liquidity

Beta (vs Nifty)

0.28

Defensive

Steadier than the market

52W Range Position

12%

Near low

Near its 52-week low

Technical Snapshot

SMA 20 / SMA 50

490.8 / 522.1

Bearish alignment (short < long)

Price vs SMA 200

Below

Long-term downtrend

RSI (14)

44.0

Neutral momentum

Financial Trend (4-Year)

Metric	FY23	FY24	FY25	FY26	3Y CAGR
Revenue	₹1,241 Cr	₹1,254 Cr	₹1,208 Cr	₹1,237 Cr	-0.1%
EBITDA	₹202 Cr	₹194 Cr	₹135 Cr	₹143 Cr	-10.9%
EBITDA Margin	16.3%	15.5%	11.2%	11.6%	—
PAT (Net Profit)	₹139 Cr	₹132 Cr	₹86 Cr	₹81 Cr	-16.4%
EPS	₹36.2	₹34.27	₹22.31	₹21.16	-16.4%
ROE	23.4%	18.7%	11.2%	9.9%	—
ROCE	30.5%	24.3%	14.8%	12.6%	—
Total Debt	₹7 Cr	₹10 Cr	₹10 Cr	₹63 Cr	+107.7%
Free Cash Flow	₹21 Cr	₹84 Cr	₹68 Cr	-₹24 Cr	—

🟡 Revenue has been broadly flat over 3 years (-0.1% a year).

🔴 EBITDA has shrunk at 10.9% a year over 3 years.

🔴 EBITDA Margin has fallen from 16.3% to 11.6% over 3 years (-4.7 pts).

🔴 PAT (Net Profit) has shrunk at 16.4% a year over 3 years.

🔴 EPS has shrunk at 16.4% a year over 3 years.

🔴 ROE has fallen from 23.4% to 9.9% over 3 years (-13.4 pts).

🔴 ROCE has fallen from 30.5% to 12.6% over 3 years (-17.9 pts).

🔴 Total Debt has grown at 107.7% a year over 3 years.

🔴 Free Cash Flow has turned negative, from ₹21 Cr to -₹24 Cr.

Balance Sheet & Cash Flow — FY2026

Total Assets

₹1,025 Cr

Total Liabilities

₹206 Cr

Cash & Equivalents

₹16 Cr

Operating Cash Flow

₹101 Cr

Capex

-₹125 Cr

Shareholding (proxy)

Institutional Holding

9.1%

Insider Holding

74.9%

Corporate Actions

Dividend Rate

₹7

Ex-Dividend Date

06 Feb 2026

Analyst Consensus

Recommendations

3 Buy · 5 Hold · 3 Sell

Target Price (Mean)

₹616

+28.9% vs CMP

Target Range

₹500 – ₹770

Peer Comparison

Company	P/E	ROE
LARSEN & TOUBRO LTD.	30.1x	15.2%
SIEMENS LTD	88.8x	10.5%
ABB INDIA LIMITED	92.6x	19.1%

Recent News

3 mixed3 general

TCIEXP Forecast — Price Target — Prediction for 2027

TradingView, 27 JunAnalyst view

🟡Mixed / dependsBroker commentary — an opinion about the price rather than new information about the business.

TCI Express vs Nifty 50: 1Y Return -31.84% vs -10.93%

Univest, 12 Oct

Volume Gainers, September 29, 2026 at 3:30 PM IST: TCI Express Leads Volume Jump

HDFC Sky, 29 Sept

AXISCADE shares hit 10% upper circuit, TCI Express stock rallies 20% amid block deal buzz

Upstox, 29 Sept

₹616 - That's What Analysts Think TCI Express Limited (NSE:TCIEXP) Is Worth After These Results

Simply Wall Street, 10 AugAnalyst view

🟡Mixed / dependsBroker commentary — an opinion about the price rather than new information about the business.

Why TCI Express Share Price is Falling

Equitymaster, 25 JunPrice move

🟡Mixed / dependsA price move rather than a change in the business. If the figures on this page have not moved, the fall is either an opportunity or news they have yet to catch up with.

Watch Items

Cross-check against the company's latest quarterly filing / investor presentation before acting.

DalalBaazaar Thesis

MiddlingFinancial Health · Valuation · Risk

WeakBusiness Quality · Growth · Profitability

Points for each in the Score ↑

Weak on the fundamentals

Poor scores on business quality without a price low enough to compensate. There is no obvious argument for owning this over a stronger company at a similar valuation. 2 high-severity red flags sit above this conclusion and should be read first.

1 of 5 tripwires tripped — Free cash flow remains positive · see Key things to watch ↑