Tilaknagar Industries Ltd.

Consumer Defensive — Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries · NSE

₹550.50+₹1.65 (+0.30%)

DalalBaazaar Score

38 / 100

🔴 Weak

Verdict

CAUTION

Risk

High

Driven by negative free cash flow, the company is currently loss-making, small-cap size, which brings sharper price swings.

In simple words: The company is currently losing money, though profits are falling even as sales grow. Cash generation is currently the main factor to watch.

Decision support, not a buy or sell call.

As of 18 Oct 2026, 6:07 pm

Caution warranted. Multiple fundamental metrics — flagged in red below — point to either valuation stretch, leverage risk, or weakening profitability. This doesn't mean avoid the stock outright, but it does mean the burden of proof is on the growth story to justify the current price.

Understanding the Business

Company site ↗

The 60-second version of Tilaknagar Industries Ltd. — what it does, how it earns, and who it competes with, before any of the numbers below.

What does this company do?

Tilaknagar Industries Ltd. engages in the manufacture and sale of Indian made foreign liquor and its related products in India.

IndustryBeverages - Wineries & Distilleries

SectorConsumer Defensive

Employees789

Annual revenue₹2,268 Cr

How does it make money?

Turns over ₹2,268 Cr a year. Of every ₹100 of sales, about ₹1 reaches shareholders as profit, with ₹18 left at the operating level before interest, tax and depreciation. Each of its 789 employees supports ₹2.87 Cr of revenue a year, the signature of a capital- or asset-led business.

EBITDA margin17.6%

Net margin0.9%

Revenue / employee₹2.87 Cr

Who are its competitors?

The closest listed comparisons in its industry are HINDUSTAN UNILEVER LTD., ITC LTD, NESTLE INDIA LIMITED, BRITANNIA INDUSTRIES LTD. These are the companies its valuation and returns are measured against elsewhere in this report.

HINDUSTAN UNILEVER LTD.P/E 42.5x · ROE 21.5%

ITC LTDP/E 16.6x · ROE 27.4%

NESTLE INDIA LIMITEDP/E 59.8x · ROE 79.9%

BRITANNIA INDUSTRIES LTDP/E 44.1x · ROE 51.0%

What is its competitive advantage?Little sign of one

Returns on capital of 1.9% are at or below what the capital likely costs. That is the financial pattern of a business competing largely on price, where advantage has to come from execution rather than position.

ROCE1.9%

ROE0.7%

Peer median ROE51.0%

What is the outlook?

7 analysts covering the stock expect revenue to grow about 11.7% and earnings to grow about 47.5% in the year to 2028. These are estimates by people who follow the company, not a forecast for the wider industry.

Est. revenue growth+11.7%

Est. earnings growth+47.5%

Analysts7

What has been driving growth?

Sales and margins have both contributed to where profit is now. Over 3 years revenue moved +96% while net margin moved -93% relative to itself. What this cannot tell you is which products, customers or geographies did the work — that lives in the segment disclosures of the annual report.

Revenue effect+96%

Margin effect-93%

DalalBaazaar Score

38/ 100

Weak

Weighted across six categories. Every point is explained below.

✗ ROE of 0.7% is weak
✗ ROE has fallen by 30.3 points over the period

Quality vs. Valuation

Company Quality

37/ 100

Weak

How good the business is, ignoring the share price entirely.

Valuation

25/ 100

Expensive

What you are being asked to pay, ignoring how good the business is.

Weak on business quality and not cheap enough to compensate.

vs. its own history

Not enough price and earnings history

vs. sector peers

Not enough peers with a usable P/E

vs. generic bands

N/A

No P/E — the company is lossmaking

P/E (Trailing)

Not meaningful

P/B

4.59x

EV/EBITDA

39.3x

PEG

—

Dividend Yield

0.18%

What's Good / What's Bad

🟢 What's Going Well2

Margins are improving
EBITDA margin is up from 11.9% to 17.6% over 3 years.
Consistently profitable
Profitable in every one of the last 4 reported years.

🔴 What Needs Attention6

Debt is rising
Total debt is up 801% over 3 years — worth checking what it funded.
Free cash flow is negative
The business is not currently covering its capital spending from operations.
Return on equity is falling
ROE has dropped from 31.0% to 0.7% — each rupee of shareholder capital earns less than it did.
Return on capital is falling
ROCE has declined from 31.9% to 1.9% — often a sign of competition or overexpansion.
Receivables growing faster than sales
Receivables are up 275% against revenue growth of 96% — customers are taking longer to pay.
Inventory building faster than sales
Inventory is up 246% against revenue growth of 96% — stock may not be moving.

Red Flags

8 items require attention · 4 high · 4 watch

🔴Debt has risen sharplyFinancial
Total debt is up 801% over 3 years, from ₹256 Cr to ₹2,301 Cr.
🔴Thin interest coverageFinancial
Operating profit covers interest only 1.3x — little room if earnings dip.
🔴Receivables growing faster than salesFinancial
Receivables up 275% against revenue up 96% — sales are being booked faster than they are collected.
🔴Inventory building faster than salesFinancial
Inventory up 246% against revenue up 96% — stock may not be moving.
🟡Interest coverage is deterioratingFinancial
Cover has fallen from 43.4x to 1.3x.
🟡Free cash flow is negativeFinancial
Free cash flow was -₹3,978 Cr in the latest year.
🟡Profit is decliningFinancial
Net profit is down 86% over 3 years.
🟡Shareholders have been dilutedOwnership
Shares outstanding are up 33% over 3 years — each existing share owns a smaller slice of the company.

Investment Thesis

🟢 Bull CaseWhat could make this work?

Margin expansion has further to run
EBITDA margin has risen from 11.9% to 17.6%. If that holds, profit compounds faster than sales and today's multiple looks cheaper in hindsight than it does now.
Earnings have proved durable
Profitable in every one of the last 4 reported years. Consistency lowers the risk that any single bad year is structural rather than cyclical.

🔴 Bear CaseWhat could go wrong?

The debt load needs earnings to hold up
Debt is 5.8x EBITDA. At that level a downturn in earnings turns a manageable balance sheet into a refinancing problem, and lenders get paid before shareholders.
Sales are being booked faster than collected
Receivables are up 275% against revenue up 96%. If customers keep taking longer to pay, reported profit will not turn into cash — and write-offs follow if some never do.
Returns on shareholder capital are falling
ROE has dropped from 31.0% to 0.7%. Each rupee of equity earns less than it did, so profit growth increasingly depends on raising more capital rather than on the existing base working harder.
Size brings its own risk
Small Cap businesses are thinly traded, so exits are harder in a falling market and single events move the price more than they would for a larger company.
Several serious flags at once
4 high-severity checks triggered. Individually each has an explanation; together they raise the chance that something structural is wrong rather than a one-off.

🟡 Key Things to WatchMeasurable tripwires, set against where this company stands today

1Revenue growth stays above 19% a year✓ 25.2% CAGR
Latest reported year was 155.7%. The bar is set below the established compounding rate, so ordinary variation does not trip it.
2EBITDA margin holds above 16%✓ 17.6%
Two points below today's level — enough room for noise, tight enough to catch real compression.
3Debt / EBITDA falls below 3x✗ 5.8x
Already stretched, so this is a reduction target rather than a level to hold. Around 3x is where lenders typically start attaching conditions.
4Free cash flow remains positive✗ -₹3,978 Cr
Profit that never becomes cash eventually stops being profit.
5Interest cover stays above 3x✗ 1.3x
How much operating profit can fall before interest stops being comfortably covered.

Investment Checklist

7 / 12 checks passed

✗ Strong return on equity (ROE ≥ 15%)
✗ Strong return on capital employed (ROCE ≥ 15%)
✗ Healthy net margin (≥ 10%)
✗ Generates positive free cash flow
✓ Manageable leverage (Debt/Equity < 1.0)
✓ Adequate short-term liquidity (Current Ratio ≥ 1.0)
✓ Revenue growing year-over-year
✗ Profit growing year-over-year
✓ Not trading at an extreme valuation (P/E < 40x)
✓ Not buying right at the 52-week high
✓ Analyst consensus isn't majority-sell
✓ Short-term technical trend isn't bearish

Price history

Quick Metrics

1 good · 4 neutral · 6 weak

Market Cap

₹13,647 Cr

Small Cap

Smaller company — thin liquidity and deep drawdowns are normal here

P/E (Trailing)

Not meaningful

Loss-making

Earnings are negative, so a P/E multiple can't be read here

P/B Ratio

4.59x

Fair

Moderate premium to the company's book value

EPS (TTM)

₹-1.3

Loss-making

Negative earnings per share — the business is losing money

ROE

0.7%

Weak

Weak capital efficiency

ROCE

1.9%

Weak

Low return on total capital employed

Debt/Equity

0.77x

Moderate

Moderate leverage

Revenue Growth (YoY)

155.7%

Healthy

Healthy top-line growth

Profit Growth (YoY)

-72.0%

Falling

Profits are shrinking

Dividend Yield

0.18%

Modest

Small cash return — most of the return has to come from the price

Free Cash Flow

-₹3,978 Cr

Cash burning

Spending more cash than the operations bring in

More Metrics

CMP

₹550.5

P/E (Forward)

32.6x

Operating Margin

12.2%

Average

Average margins

Net Margin

-1.2%

Weak

Very little revenue reaches the bottom line

Current Ratio

2.50

Comfortable

Healthy short-term liquidity

Beta (vs Nifty)

0.22

Defensive

Steadier than the market

52W Range Position

75%

Mid-range

Technical Snapshot

SMA 20 / SMA 50

557.5 / 550.5

Bullish alignment (short > long)

Price vs SMA 200

Above

Long-term uptrend

RSI (14)

31.9

Neutral momentum

Financial Trend (4-Year)

Metric	FY23	FY24	FY25	FY26	3Y CAGR
Revenue	₹1,156 Cr	₹1,394 Cr	₹1,345 Cr	₹2,268 Cr	+25.2%
EBITDA	₹138 Cr	₹200 Cr	₹264 Cr	₹400 Cr	+42.6%
EBITDA Margin	11.9%	14.3%	19.6%	17.6%	—
PAT (Net Profit)	₹150 Cr	₹138 Cr	₹230 Cr	₹21 Cr	-48.2%
EPS	₹8.56	₹7.16	₹11.81	₹0.96	-51.8%
ROE	31.0%	21.1%	26.0%	0.7%	—
ROCE	31.9%	19.8%	24.8%	1.9%	—
Total Debt	₹256 Cr	₹121 Cr	₹44 Cr	₹2,301 Cr	+108.0%
Free Cash Flow	₹60 Cr	₹109 Cr	₹172 Cr	-₹3,978 Cr	—

🟢 Revenue has grown at 25.2% a year over 3 years.

🟢 EBITDA has grown at 42.6% a year over 3 years.

🟢 EBITDA Margin has risen from 11.9% to 17.6% over 3 years (+5.7 pts).

🔴 PAT (Net Profit) has shrunk at 48.2% a year over 3 years.

🔴 EPS has shrunk at 51.8% a year over 3 years.

🔴 ROE has fallen from 31.0% to 0.7% over 3 years (-30.3 pts).

🔴 ROCE has fallen from 31.9% to 1.9% over 3 years (-30.0 pts).

🔴 Total Debt has grown at 108.0% a year over 3 years.

🔴 Free Cash Flow has turned negative, from ₹60 Cr to -₹3,978 Cr.

Balance Sheet & Cash Flow — FY2026

Total Assets

₹6,160 Cr

Total Liabilities

₹3,178 Cr

Total Debt

₹2,301 Cr

Cash & Equivalents

₹218 Cr

Operating Cash Flow

-₹445 Cr

Capex

-₹3,533 Cr

Shareholding (proxy)

Institutional Holding

23.9%

Insider Holding

38.9%

Corporate Actions

Dividend Rate

₹1

Ex-Dividend Date

15 Sept 2026

Analyst Consensus

Recommendations

7 Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell

Target Price (Mean)

₹659.71

+19.8% vs CMP

Target Range

₹540 – ₹730

Peer Comparison

Company	P/E	ROE
HINDUSTAN UNILEVER LTD.	42.5x	21.5%
ITC LTD	16.6x	27.4%
NESTLE INDIA LIMITED	59.8x	79.9%
BRITANNIA INDUSTRIES LTD	44.1x	51.0%

Recent News

1 positive3 mixed2 general

TI Forecast — Price Target — Prediction for 2027

TradingView, 25 JunAnalyst view

🟡Mixed / dependsBroker commentary — an opinion about the price rather than new information about the business.

Tilaknagar Industries Ltd. Share Price Hits One-Year High

Univest, 18 Aug

Tilaknagar Industries Ltd. (NSE:TI) Just Released Its First-Quarter Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Estimates

Simply Wall Street, 30 JulAnalyst view

🟡Mixed / dependsBroker commentary — an opinion about the price rather than new information about the business.

Tilaknagar Industries plans price hike in Telangana, bigger push into Tamil Nadu

CNBC TV18, 20 Aug

Tilaknagar Industries share price falls 7% as company swings to loss in Q4

Business Standard, 01 JunPrice move

🟡Mixed / dependsA price move rather than a change in the business. If the figures on this page have not moved, the fall is either an opportunity or news they have yet to catch up with.

Tilaknagar Industries Shares Fall 3% Despite Q1 Revenue Surge

Equitypandit, 28 JulResults

🟢Potentially positiveReported improvement. Check whether it came from volume, price or a one-off item before treating it as a trend.

Watch Items

Cross-check against the company's latest quarterly filing / investor presentation before acting.

DalalBaazaar Thesis

🔴Business QualityWeak6.2/20

🟡Financial HealthAdequate9.2/20

🟡GrowthModest9.3/20

🔴ProfitabilityWeak3.4/15

🔴ValuationDemanding5.1/15

🟡RiskModerate5/10

Weak on the fundamentals

Poor scores on business quality without a price low enough to compensate. There is no obvious argument for owning this over a stronger company at a similar valuation. 4 high-severity red flags sit above this conclusion and should be read first.

This thesis breaks if

✓Revenue growth stays above 19% a year25.2% CAGR
✓EBITDA margin holds above 16%17.6%
✗Debt / EBITDA falls below 3x5.8x
✗Free cash flow remains positive-₹3,978 Cr
✗Interest cover stays above 3x1.3x