Toss the Coin Limited

Communication Services — Advertising Agencies · BSE

₹165.00−₹6.95 (−4.04%)

DalalBaazaar Score

67 / 100

🟢 Good

Verdict

REASONABLE

Risk

Moderate

Driven by negative free cash flow, micro-cap size, which brings thin liquidity.

In simple words: Strong business and financial position, with both sales and profits growing well. Cash generation is currently the main factor to watch.

Decision support, not a buy or sell call.

As of 18 Oct 2026, 6:06 pm

Mixed / neutral. No major red flags jump out, but nothing here screams "obviously cheap" either. This is a name that needs a peer comparison and a view on near-term earnings triggers before sizing a position.

Understanding the Business

Company site ↗

The 60-second version of Toss the Coin Limited — what it does, how it earns, and who it competes with, before any of the numbers below.

What does this company do?

Toss the Coin Limited engages in the provision of marketing consulting services. It offers branding studio, ray AI studio, experience studio, creative content studio, AI SEO visibility studio, and presentation studio.

IndustryAdvertising Agencies

SectorCommunication Services

Employees74

Annual revenue₹15 Cr

How does it make money?

Turns over ₹15 Cr a year. Of every ₹100 of sales, about ₹18 reaches shareholders as profit, with ₹30 left at the operating level before interest, tax and depreciation. Each of its 74 employees supports ₹19.9 lakh of revenue a year, the signature of a people-led business.

EBITDA margin29.7%

Net margin18.4%

Revenue / employee₹19.9 lakh

Who are its competitors?

The closest listed comparisons in its industry are BHARTI AIRTEL LIMITED, VODAFONE IDEA LIMITED. These are the companies its valuation and returns are measured against elsewhere in this report.

BHARTI AIRTEL LIMITEDP/E 39.8x · ROE 20.2%

VODAFONE IDEA LIMITEDP/E 3.6x · ROE —

What is its competitive advantage?Some evidence

ROCE of 25.5% is above what capital typically costs, which suggests some pricing power, though not yet the sustained, wide gap that marks a durable advantage.

ROCE25.5%

ROE19.9%

Peer median ROE20.2%

What has been driving growth?

Growth has come mainly from selling more, rather than from keeping more of each sale. Over 3 years revenue moved +207% while net margin moved -51% relative to itself. What this cannot tell you is which products, customers or geographies did the work — that lives in the segment disclosures of the annual report.

Revenue effect+207%

Margin effect-51%

DalalBaazaar Score

67/ 100

Good

Weighted across six categories. Every point is explained below.

✗ Micro Cap: thinner liquidity and sharper drawdowns are normal
✗ Negative free cash flow means dependence on external funding

Quality vs. Valuation

Company Quality

70/ 100

Good

How good the business is, ignoring the share price entirely.

Valuation

85/ 100

Cheap

What you are being asked to pay, ignoring how good the business is.

A good business currently available at an undemanding price — the combination this framework is built to look for.

Historical Valuation

Current P/E

11.5x

2Y Median

39.0x

24 monthly readings · mean 45.5x · range 20.2x–86.5x

Sector Median

21.7x

median of 2 sector peers

🟢Current valuation is approximately 70% below its 2y median of 39.0x. Cheaper than its own history, which is worth a reason too: the market may be pricing in something the backward-looking numbers do not show.

🟢Against its sector it trades 47% below the peer median of 21.7x.

vs. its own history

Cheap

39.0x median over 24 months · -70%

vs. sector peers

Cheap

21.7x median of 2 peers · -47%

vs. generic bands

Cheap

Below 15x

P/E (Trailing)

11.5x

P/B

2.20x

EV/EBITDA

5.4x

PEG

0.77

Dividend Yield

3.03%

What's Good / What's Bad

🟢 What's Going Well4

High return on capital employed
ROCE of 25.5% is the mark of a business that converts capital into profit efficiently.
Valuation below its historical average
At 11.5x the stock trades 70% below its own median of 39.0x.
Very low debt
Debt/Equity of 0.18x leaves the balance sheet with plenty of headroom.
Consistently profitable
Profitable in every one of the last 4 reported years.

🔴 What Needs Attention4

Margins are compressing
EBITDA margin has slipped from 51.3% to 29.7% over 3 years.
Return on equity is falling
ROE has dropped from 49.4% to 19.1% — each rupee of shareholder capital earns less than it did.
Return on capital is falling
ROCE has declined from 66.2% to 25.5% — often a sign of competition or overexpansion.
Receivables growing faster than sales
Receivables are up 232% against revenue growth of 207% — customers are taking longer to pay.

Red Flags

2 items require attention · 1 high · 1 watch

🔴Significant margin compressionFinancial
EBITDA margin has fallen 21.6 points, from 51.3% to 29.7%.
🟡Receivables growing faster than salesFinancial
Receivables up 232% against revenue up 207% — sales are being booked faster than they are collected.

Investment Thesis

🟢 Bull CaseWhat could make this work?

Capital compounds at a high rate
ROCE of 25.5% means each rupee reinvested earns well above what capital costs. If the company can keep deploying at this rate, growth creates value rather than just consuming cash.
Priced below its own history
The stock trades 70% below its own median multiple. If the business performs as it has and simply re-rates back to normal, that gap is return on its own.
Cheaper than its peers
It trades 47% below the sector median. Either the market sees a problem the numbers do not show, or the discount closes.
Self-funding with balance-sheet headroom
Positive free cash flow of ₹1 Cr alongside low debt means growth, buybacks or dividends need no outside money — and a downturn can be absorbed rather than refinanced.
Earnings have proved durable
Profitable in every one of the last 4 reported years. Consistency lowers the risk that any single bad year is structural rather than cyclical.

🔴 Bear CaseWhat could go wrong?

Margins are being competed away
EBITDA margin has fallen from 51.3% to 29.7%. If the trend continues, profit falls even on flat sales — and margin decline rarely reverses quickly.
Sales are being booked faster than collected
Receivables are up 232% against revenue up 207%. If customers keep taking longer to pay, reported profit will not turn into cash — and write-offs follow if some never do.
Returns on shareholder capital are falling
ROE has dropped from 49.4% to 19.1%. Each rupee of equity earns less than it did, so profit growth increasingly depends on raising more capital rather than on the existing base working harder.
Size brings its own risk
Micro Cap businesses are thinly traded, so exits are harder in a falling market and single events move the price more than they would for a larger company.

🟡 Key Things to WatchMeasurable tripwires, set against where this company stands today

1Revenue growth stays above 34% a year✓ 45.4% CAGR
Latest reported year was 82.0%. The bar is set below the established compounding rate, so ordinary variation does not trip it.
2EBITDA margin holds above 28%✓ 29.7%
Two points below today's level — enough room for noise, tight enough to catch real compression.
3Free cash flow remains positive✓ ₹1 Cr
Profit that never becomes cash eventually stops being profit.
4Debt / EBITDA stays below 2x✓ 0.0x
The ratio lenders write covenants against; it survives a small or negative equity base, unlike Debt/Equity.
5ROCE stays above 22%✓ 25.5%
Falling returns on capital are usually competition arriving, and show up here before they reach the margin.

Investment Checklist

9 / 11 checks passed

✓ Strong return on equity (ROE ≥ 15%)
✓ Strong return on capital employed (ROCE ≥ 15%)
✓ Healthy net margin (≥ 10%)
✗ Generates positive free cash flow
✓ Manageable leverage (Debt/Equity < 1.0)
✓ Adequate short-term liquidity (Current Ratio ≥ 1.0)
✓ Revenue growing year-over-year
✓ Profit growing year-over-year
✓ Not trading at an extreme valuation (P/E < 40x)
✓ Not buying right at the 52-week high
✗ Short-term technical trend isn't bearish

Price history

Quick Metrics

8 good · 2 neutral · 1 weak

Market Cap

₹31 Cr

Micro Cap

Smaller company — thin liquidity and deep drawdowns are normal here

P/E (Trailing)

11.5x

Cheap

Cheap against the generic band

P/B Ratio

2.20x

Fair

Moderate premium to the company's book value

EPS (TTM)

₹14.31

Profitable

Profitable on a per-share basis

ROE

19.9%

Strong

Strong capital efficiency

ROCE

25.5%

Strong

Earns comfortably above its likely cost of capital

Debt/Equity

0.18x

Low

Conservative leverage

Revenue Growth (YoY)

82.0%

Healthy

Healthy top-line growth

Profit Growth (YoY)

1109.9%

Healthy

Profits growing at a healthy clip

Dividend Yield

3.03%

Healthy

Meaningful cash return while you hold the stock

Free Cash Flow

-₹0 Cr

Cash burning

Spending more cash than the operations bring in

More Metrics

CMP

₹165

ROA

12.8%

Good

Assets are working hard

Operating Margin

17.6%

Good

Healthy core-business profitability

Net Margin

18.4%

Good

Strong bottom-line conversion

Current Ratio

8.67

Comfortable

Healthy short-term liquidity

52W Range Position

10%

Near low

Near its 52-week low

Technical Snapshot

SMA 20 / SMA 50

164.0 / 179.3

Bearish alignment (short < long)

Price vs SMA 200

Below

Long-term downtrend

RSI (14)

52.1

Neutral momentum

Financial Trend (4-Year)

Metric	FY23	FY24	FY25	FY26	3Y CAGR
Revenue	₹5 Cr	₹5 Cr	₹9 Cr	₹15 Cr	+45.4%
EBITDA	₹2 Cr	₹2 Cr	₹2 Cr	₹4 Cr	+21.2%
EBITDA Margin	51.3%	31.1%	21.8%	29.7%	—
PAT (Net Profit)	₹2 Cr	₹1 Cr	₹1 Cr	₹3 Cr	+14.9%
EPS	₹9.43	₹5.59	₹8.17	—	—
ROE	49.4%	24.2%	9.7%	19.1%	—
ROCE	66.2%	31.8%	12.8%	25.5%	—
Total Debt	—	—	₹0 Cr	₹0 Cr	—
Free Cash Flow	₹1 Cr	₹1 Cr	-₹1 Cr	₹1 Cr	-25.9%

🟢 Revenue has grown at 45.4% a year over 3 years.

🟢 EBITDA has grown at 21.2% a year over 3 years.

🔴 EBITDA Margin has fallen from 51.3% to 29.7% over 3 years (-21.6 pts).

🟢 PAT (Net Profit) has grown at 14.9% a year over 3 years.

🔴 ROE has fallen from 49.4% to 19.1% over 3 years (-30.3 pts).

🔴 ROCE has fallen from 66.2% to 25.5% over 3 years (-40.7 pts).

🔴 Free Cash Flow has shrunk at 25.9% a year over 3 years.

Balance Sheet & Cash Flow — FY2026

Total Assets

₹16 Cr

Total Liabilities

₹1 Cr

Total Debt

₹0 Cr

Cash & Equivalents

₹8 Cr

Operating Cash Flow

₹2 Cr

Capex

-₹2 Cr

Shareholding (proxy)

Institutional Holding

4.6%

Insider Holding

75.2%

Corporate Actions

Dividend Rate

₹5

Ex-Dividend Date

13 Mar 2026

Peer Comparison

Company	P/E	ROE
BHARTI AIRTEL LIMITED	39.8x	20.2%
VODAFONE IDEA LIMITED	3.6x	—

Recent News

6 general

Toss The Coin publishes Sixth AGM notice with e-voting details

scanx.trade, 11 Sept

SME IPOs in 2025 were like toss of coin

The Times of India, 22 Dec

TOSS THE COIN LIMITED Share Price

Upstox, 06 Nov

Coinbase: Betting On A Correction Is A Coin Toss (NASDAQ:COIN)

Seeking Alpha, 16 Feb

Toss The Coin IPO Allotment Status

Groww, 21 Feb

Toss The Coin shares list at 90% premium over IPO price on BSE SME

Moneycontrol.com, 17 Dec

Watch Items

Trading very close to its 52-week low — worth checking whether this reflects a temporary setback or a structural problem.
Cross-check against the company's latest quarterly filing / investor presentation before acting.

DalalBaazaar Thesis

🟢Business QualityStrong15.2/20

🟢Financial HealthStrong14.5/20

🟡GrowthModest12.9/20

🟢ProfitabilityStrong10.2/15

🟢ValuationAttractive11.8/15

🔴RiskHigh2.4/10

Attractive on both counts

A good business currently available at an undemanding price — the combination this framework exists to look for. The work left is qualitative: whether the advantage the numbers imply is one you can identify and expect to last. 1 high-severity red flag sits above this conclusion and should be read first.

This thesis breaks if

✓Revenue growth stays above 34% a year45.4% CAGR
✓EBITDA margin holds above 28%29.7%
✓Free cash flow remains positive₹1 Cr
✓Debt / EBITDA stays below 2x0.0x
✓ROCE stays above 22%25.5%