TVS Supply Chain Solutions Limited

Industrials — Integrated Freight & Logistics · NSE

₹122.70+₹0.53 (+0.43%)

DalalBaazaar Score

49 / 100

🟡 Moderate

Verdict

CAUTION

Risk

High

Driven by moderate debt load, small-cap size, which brings sharper price swings, a very high earnings multiple, which leaves little margin for disappointment.

In simple words: The business is earning a fairly low return on the money invested in it, though profits are falling even as sales grow. Valuation is currently the main factor to watch.

Decision support, not a buy or sell call.

As of 18 Oct 2026, 7:44 pm

Understanding the Business

Company site ↗

The 60-second version of TVS Supply Chain Solutions Limited — what it does, how it earns, and who it competes with, before any of the numbers below.

What does this company do?

TVS Supply Chain Solutions Limited provides integrated supply chain solutions in India. The company operates in two segments, Integrated Supply Chain Solutions (ISCS) and Global Forwarding Solutions (GFS).

IndustryIntegrated Freight & Logistics

SectorIndustrials

Employees16,601

Annual revenue₹11,000 Cr

How does it make money?

Turns over ₹11,000 Cr a year. Of every ₹100 of sales, about ₹1 reaches shareholders as profit, with ₹10 left at the operating level before interest, tax and depreciation. Each of its 16,601 employees supports ₹66.3 lakh of revenue a year, the signature of a people-led business.

Revenue / employee₹66.3 lakh

Who are its competitors?

The closest listed comparisons in its industry are LARSEN & TOUBRO LTD., SIEMENS LTD, ABB INDIA LIMITED. These are the companies its valuation and returns are measured against elsewhere in this report.

Compared side by side in Peers ↓

What is its competitive advantage?Little sign of one

Returns on capital of 9.0% are at or below what the capital likely costs. That is the financial pattern of a business competing largely on price, where advantage has to come from execution rather than position.

Peer median ROE15.2%

What has been driving growth?

Profit has moved mainly because margins changed, not because the business sold much more. Over 3 years revenue moved +10% while net margin moved +160% relative to itself. What this cannot tell you is which products, customers or geographies did the work — that lives in the segment disclosures of the annual report.

Revenue effect+10%

Margin effect+160%

DalalBaazaar Score

49/ 100

Moderate

Weighted across six categories. Every point is explained below.

✗ ROE of 5.6% is weak

Quality vs. Valuation

Company Quality

49/ 100

Average

How good the business is, ignoring the share price entirely.

Valuation

63/ 100

Fair

What you are being asked to pay, ignoring how good the business is.

A reasonable business at a reasonable price — neither the quality nor the valuation stands out in either direction.

Historical Valuation

Current P/E

84.0x

3Y Median

149.9x

40 monthly readings · mean 156.9x · range 47.4x–236.8x

Sector Median

88.8x

median of 3 sector peers

🟢Current valuation is approximately 44% below its 3y median of 149.9x. Cheaper than its own history, which is worth a reason too: the market may be pricing in something the backward-looking numbers do not show.

🟡Against its sector it is priced broadly in line with the peer median of 88.8x.

vs. its own history

Cheap

149.9x median over 40 months · -44%

vs. sector peers

Fair

88.8x median of 3 peers · -5%

vs. generic bands

Expensive

Above 35x

EV/EBITDA

7.2x

PEG

2.00

What's Good / What's Bad

🟢 What's Going Well2

Margins are improving
EBITDA margin is up from 7.7% to 9.5% over 3 years.
Debt is being paid down
Total debt is down 17% over 3 years.

🔴 What Needs Attention0

Nothing stands out as clearly deteriorating on the years of data available.

Red Flags

2 items require attention · 2 watch

🟡Receivables growing faster than salesFinancial
Receivables up 34% against revenue up 10% — sales are being booked faster than they are collected.
🟡Inventory building faster than salesFinancial
Inventory up 55% against revenue up 10% — stock may not be moving.

Investment Thesis

🟢 Bull CaseWhat could make this work?

Margin expansion has further to run
EBITDA margin has risen from 7.7% to 9.5%. If that holds, profit compounds faster than sales and today's multiple looks cheaper in hindsight than it does now.
Deleveraging frees up earnings
Debt is down 17% over 3 years. Every rupee of interest not paid drops to the bottom line, so profit can grow even if revenue does not.
Priced below its own history
The stock trades 44% below its own median multiple. If the business performs as it has and simply re-rates back to normal, that gap is return on its own.

🔴 Bear CaseWhat could go wrong?

Sales are being booked faster than collected
Receivables are up 34% against revenue up 10%. If customers keep taking longer to pay, reported profit will not turn into cash — and write-offs follow if some never do.
Growth barely outpaces inflation
Revenue compounding at 3.3% a year is close to the rate prices rise, so the business is gaining little ground in real terms. That leaves the share price dependent on a re-rating rather than on earnings growth.
Earnings are hard to forecast
Profit has swung sharply from year to year, so any single year — good or bad — is a weak guide to the next. Cyclical earnings deserve lower multiples for that reason.
Size brings its own risk
Small Cap businesses are thinly traded, so exits are harder in a falling market and single events move the price more than they would for a larger company.

🟡 Key Things to WatchMeasurable tripwires, set against where this company stands today

1EBITDA margin holds above 8%✓ 9.5%
Two points below today's level — enough room for noise, tight enough to catch real compression.
2Debt / EBITDA stays below 2x✗ 2.6x
The ratio lenders write covenants against; it survives a small or negative equity base, unlike Debt/Equity.
3Interest cover stays above 3x✗ 2.1x
How much operating profit can fall before interest stops being comfortably covered.
4Revenue growth stays above 4% a year✗ 3.3% CAGR
Latest reported year was 28.7%. The bar is set below the established compounding rate, so ordinary variation does not trip it.
5Free cash flow remains positive✓ ₹468 Cr
Profit that never becomes cash eventually stops being profit.

Investment Checklist

5 / 11 checks passed

✗ Strong return on equity (ROE ≥ 15%)
✗ Strong return on capital employed (ROCE ≥ 15%)
✗ Healthy net margin (≥ 10%)
✓ Generates positive free cash flow
✗ Manageable leverage (Debt/Equity < 1.0)
✓ Adequate short-term liquidity (Current Ratio ≥ 1.0)
✓ Revenue growing year-over-year
✗ Profit growing year-over-year
✗ Not trading at an extreme valuation (P/E < 40x)
✓ Not buying right at the 52-week high
✓ Short-term technical trend isn't bearish

Price history

Quick Metrics

3 good · 5 neutral · 3 weak

Market Cap

₹5,414 Cr

Small Cap

Smaller company — thin liquidity and deep drawdowns are normal here

P/E (Trailing)

84.0x

Expensive

Expensive — verify against sector peers

P/B Ratio

2.66x

Fair

Moderate premium to the company's book value

EPS (TTM)

₹1.46

Profitable

Profitable on a per-share basis

ROE

5.6%

Weak

Weak capital efficiency

ROCE

9.0%

Moderate

Moderate return on the capital in the business

Debt/Equity

1.34x

Moderate

Moderate leverage

Revenue Growth (YoY)

28.7%

Healthy

Healthy top-line growth

Profit Growth (YoY)

-70.4%

Falling

Profits are shrinking

Dividend Yield

None

No dividend yield reported — usually means no payout, but verify if one was recently initiated

Free Cash Flow

₹468 Cr

Cash generative

Generates cash even after funding its capex

More Metrics

P/E (Forward)

24.1x

Improving

Below the trailing multiple — the street expects earnings to grow into the price

Operating Margin

2.3%

Weak

Thin margins leave little room for error

Net Margin

0.6%

Weak

Very little revenue reaches the bottom line

Current Ratio

1.02

Adequate

Adequate, but no real cushion

Beta (vs Nifty)

0.86

Market-like

Moves roughly in line with the market

52W Range Position

58%

Mid-range

Technical Snapshot

SMA 20 / SMA 50

128.6 / 128.1

Bullish alignment (short > long)

Price vs SMA 200

Above

Long-term uptrend

RSI (14)

34.2

Neutral momentum

Financial Trend (4-Year)

Metric	FY23	FY24	FY25	FY26	3Y CAGR
Revenue	₹9,973 Cr	₹9,199 Cr	₹9,992 Cr	₹11,000 Cr	+3.3%
EBITDA	₹769 Cr	₹714 Cr	₹739 Cr	₹1,046 Cr	+10.8%
EBITDA Margin	7.7%	7.8%	7.4%	9.5%	—
PAT (Net Profit)	₹40 Cr	-₹101 Cr	-₹14 Cr	₹114 Cr	+42.1%
EPS	₹0.91	₹-2.4	₹-0.31	₹2.59	+41.7%
ROE	5.5%	-5.6%	-0.8%	5.6%	—
ROCE	9.0%	4.8%	6.2%	9.0%	—
Total Debt	₹3,324 Cr	₹2,199 Cr	₹2,088 Cr	₹2,755 Cr	-6.1%
Free Cash Flow	₹588 Cr	₹4 Cr	₹497 Cr	₹468 Cr	-7.3%

🟢 Revenue has grown at 3.3% a year over 3 years.

🟢 EBITDA has grown at 10.8% a year over 3 years.

🟢 EBITDA Margin has risen from 7.7% to 9.5% over 3 years (+1.8 pts).

🟢 PAT (Net Profit) has grown at 42.1% a year over 3 years.

🟢 EPS has grown at 41.7% a year over 3 years.

🟡 ROE has held roughly flat at 5.6% over 3 years.

🟡 ROCE has held roughly flat at 9.0% over 3 years.

🟢 Total Debt has shrunk at 6.1% a year over 3 years.

🔴 Free Cash Flow has shrunk at 7.3% a year over 3 years.

Balance Sheet & Cash Flow — FY2026

Total Assets

₹7,200 Cr

Total Liabilities

₹5,138 Cr

Cash & Equivalents

₹613 Cr

Operating Cash Flow

₹746 Cr

Capex

-₹278 Cr

Shareholding (proxy)

Institutional Holding

13.5%

Insider Holding

66.0%

Peer Comparison

Company	P/E	ROE
LARSEN & TOUBRO LTD.	30.1x	15.2%
SIEMENS LTD	88.8x	10.5%
ABB INDIA LIMITED	92.6x	19.1%

Recent News

1 positive1 mixed4 general

TVS Supply Chain Solutions vs Nifty 50 Returns: +0.01% vs -11.35%

Univest, 13 Oct

TVS Supply Chain Solutions returns to profit in FY26

scanx.trade, 10 Oct

TVS Supply Chain Solutions Ltd is Rated Sell

MarketsMojo, 16 Oct

TVS Supply Chain share price zooms 16% in subdued market; here's why

Business Standard, 24 Aug

TVS Supply Chain Solutions shares rally 16% on signing MoU with Japan-based Sankyu

Upstox, 24 AugPrice move

🟡Mixed / dependsA price move, which is not by itself a change in the business. Worth finding the cause before reading it as either good or bad.

TVS Supply Chain Solutions Q1 profit rises on strong business wins, freight volumes

The Economic Times, 11 AugResults

🟢Potentially positiveReported improvement. Check whether it came from volume, price or a one-off item before treating it as a trend.

Watch Items

Cross-check against the company's latest quarterly filing / investor presentation before acting.

DalalBaazaar Thesis

StrongGrowth

MiddlingFinancial Health · Valuation

WeakBusiness Quality · Profitability · Risk

Points for each in the Score ↑

Unremarkable in both directions

A reasonable business at a reasonable price. Nothing here is alarming and nothing is compelling, which usually means the decision rests on things this data cannot see — the industry's direction, management's intent, and what else is available to you.

3 of 5 tripwires tripped — Debt / EBITDA stays below 2x; Interest cover stays above 3x; Revenue growth stays above 4% a year · see Key things to watch ↑