UPL Limited

Basic Materials — Agricultural Inputs · NSE

₹534.65−₹6.40 (−1.18%)

DalalBaazaar Score

41 / 100

🟡 Moderate

Verdict

CAUTION

Risk

Low

No individual risk factor stands out on this snapshot.

In simple words: The business is earning a fairly low return on the money invested in it, with both sales and profits growing well. Nothing on this snapshot stands out as an immediate concern — the usual checks on business quality and management still apply.

Decision support, not a buy or sell call.

As of 18 Oct 2026, 8:27 pm

Understanding the Business

Company site ↗

The 60-second version of UPL Limited — what it does, how it earns, and who it competes with, before any of the numbers below.

What does this company do?

UPL Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells pesticides, insecticides, and micronutrients in India, Brazil, the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally.

IndustryAgricultural Inputs

SectorBasic Materials

Employees12,399

Annual revenue₹51,303 Cr

How does it make money?

Turns over ₹51,303 Cr a year. Of every ₹100 of sales, about ₹4 reaches shareholders as profit, with ₹19 left at the operating level before interest, tax and depreciation. Each of its 12,399 employees supports ₹4.14 Cr of revenue a year, the signature of a capital- or asset-led business.

Revenue / employee₹4.14 Cr

Who are its competitors?

The closest listed comparisons in its industry are TATA STEEL LIMITED, JSW STEEL LIMITED, ULTRATECH CEMENT LIMITED, ASIAN PAINTS LIMITED. These are the companies its valuation and returns are measured against elsewhere in this report.

Compared side by side in Peers ↓

What is its competitive advantage?Little sign of one

Returns on capital of 9.9% are at or below what the capital likely costs. That is the financial pattern of a business competing largely on price, where advantage has to come from execution rather than position.

Peer median ROE22.3%

What is the outlook?

16 analysts covering the stock expect revenue to grow about 8.3% and earnings to grow about 25.5% in the year to 2028. These are estimates by people who follow the company, not a forecast for the wider industry.

Est. revenue growth+8.3%

Est. earnings growth+25.5%

Analysts16

What has been driving growth?

Profit has moved mainly because margins changed, not because the business sold much more. Over 3 years revenue moved -3% while net margin moved -44% relative to itself. What this cannot tell you is which products, customers or geographies did the work — that lives in the segment disclosures of the annual report.

Revenue effect-3%

Margin effect-44%

DalalBaazaar Score

41/ 100

Moderate

Weighted across six categories. Every point is explained below.

✗ Revenue has contracted at 1.2% a year
✗ Profit has declined at 18.6% a year

Quality vs. Valuation

Company Quality

35/ 100

Weak

How good the business is, ignoring the share price entirely.

Valuation

64/ 100

Fair

What you are being asked to pay, ignoring how good the business is.

Weak on business quality and not cheap enough to compensate.

Historical Valuation

Current P/E

21.5x

3Y Median

14.5x

40 monthly readings · mean 31.2x · range 10.4x–82.7x

Sector Median

28.7x

median of 4 sector peers

⚠️Current valuation is approximately 48% above its 3y median of 14.5x. Paying more than usual needs a reason — faster growth, a better balance sheet, or a re-rating you believe in.

🟢Against its sector it trades 25% below the peer median of 28.7x.

vs. its own history

Expensive

14.5x median over 40 months · +48%

vs. sector peers

Cheap

28.7x median of 4 peers · -25%

vs. generic bands

Fair

15x–35x

EV/EBITDA

6.3x

PEG

—

What's Good / What's Bad

🟢 What's Going Well0

Nothing stands out as clearly improving on the years of data available.

🔴 What Needs Attention2

Return on equity is falling
ROE has dropped from 12.0% to 5.5% — each rupee of shareholder capital earns less than it did.
Return on capital is falling
ROCE has declined from 13.7% to 9.9% — often a sign of competition or overexpansion.

Red Flags

2 items require attention · 1 high · 1 watch

🔴Profit up while operating cash flow fallsFinancial
Reported profit rose but cash generated by operations declined — worth checking whether earnings are being supported by non-cash items or working capital.
🟡Profit is decliningFinancial
Net profit is down 46% over 3 years.

Investment Thesis

🟢 Bull CaseWhat could make this work?

Cheaper than its peers
It trades 25% below the sector median. Either the market sees a problem the numbers do not show, or the discount closes.

🔴 Bear CaseWhat could go wrong?

The price already assumes success
The stock trades 48% above its own median multiple. At this level the business has to deliver just to stand still, and a stumble is repriced twice — lower earnings on a lower multiple.
Returns on shareholder capital are falling
ROE has dropped from 12.0% to 5.5%. Each rupee of equity earns less than it did, so profit growth increasingly depends on raising more capital rather than on the existing base working harder.
Earnings are hard to forecast
Profit has swung sharply from year to year, so any single year — good or bad — is a weak guide to the next. Cyclical earnings deserve lower multiples for that reason.

🟡 Key Things to WatchMeasurable tripwires, set against where this company stands today

1EBITDA margin holds above 17%✓ 19.3%
Two points below today's level — enough room for noise, tight enough to catch real compression.
2Debt / EBITDA stays below 2x✗ 2.4x
The ratio lenders write covenants against; it survives a small or negative equity base, unlike Debt/Equity.
3Interest cover stays above 3x✗ 2.1x
How much operating profit can fall before interest stops being comfortably covered.
4Free cash flow remains positive✓ ₹5,449 Cr
Profit that never becomes cash eventually stops being profit.
5ROCE stays above 8%✓ 9.9%
Falling returns on capital are usually competition arriving, and show up here before they reach the margin.

Investment Checklist

8 / 12 checks passed

✗ Strong return on equity (ROE ≥ 15%)
✗ Strong return on capital employed (ROCE ≥ 15%)
✗ Healthy net margin (≥ 10%)
✓ Generates positive free cash flow
✓ Manageable leverage (Debt/Equity < 1.0)
✓ Adequate short-term liquidity (Current Ratio ≥ 1.0)
✓ Revenue growing year-over-year
✓ Profit growing year-over-year
✓ Not trading at an extreme valuation (P/E < 40x)
✓ Not buying right at the 52-week high
✓ Analyst consensus isn't majority-sell
✗ Short-term technical trend isn't bearish

Price history

Quick Metrics

6 good · 4 neutral · 1 weak

Market Cap

₹45,193 Cr

Mid Cap

Mid-sized — more growth headroom, but sharper swings than large caps

P/E (Trailing)

21.5x

Fair

Fairly valued against the generic band

P/B Ratio

1.30x

Reasonable

Reasonable against the company's book value

EPS (TTM)

₹24.91

Profitable

Profitable on a per-share basis

ROE

5.5%

Weak

Weak capital efficiency

ROCE

9.9%

Moderate

Moderate return on the capital in the business

Debt/Equity

0.57x

Low

Conservative leverage

Revenue Growth (YoY)

10.5%

Healthy

Healthy top-line growth

Profit Growth (YoY)

114.3%

Healthy

Profits growing at a healthy clip

Dividend Yield

1.12%

Modest

Small cash return — most of the return has to come from the price

Free Cash Flow

₹5,449 Cr

Cash generative

Generates cash even after funding its capex

More Metrics

P/E (Forward)

11.4x

Improving

Below the trailing multiple — the street expects earnings to grow into the price

Operating Margin

6.6%

Average

Average margins

Net Margin

3.8%

Average

Average bottom-line conversion

Current Ratio

1.22

Comfortable

Healthy short-term liquidity

Beta (vs Nifty)

0.54

Defensive

Steadier than the market

52W Range Position

17%

Mid-range

Technical Snapshot

SMA 20 / SMA 50

531.5 / 555.2

Bearish alignment (short < long)

Price vs SMA 200

Below

Long-term downtrend

RSI (14)

45.0

Neutral momentum

Financial Trend (4-Year)

Metric	FY23	FY24	FY25	FY26	3Y CAGR
Revenue	₹53,134 Cr	₹42,599 Cr	₹46,262 Cr	₹51,303 Cr	-1.2%
EBITDA	₹10,967 Cr	₹4,387 Cr	₹7,383 Cr	₹9,916 Cr	-3.3%
EBITDA Margin	20.6%	10.3%	16.0%	19.3%	—
PAT (Net Profit)	₹3,570 Cr	-₹1,200 Cr	₹897 Cr	₹1,922 Cr	-18.6%
EPS	₹43.92	₹-17.45	₹9.62	₹22.32	-20.2%
ROE	12.0%	-4.3%	2.8%	5.5%	—
ROCE	13.7%	2.1%	6.8%	9.9%	—
Total Debt	₹23,939 Cr	₹29,754 Cr	₹25,099 Cr	₹23,576 Cr	-0.5%
Free Cash Flow	₹5,391 Cr	₹326 Cr	₹8,456 Cr	₹5,449 Cr	+0.4%

🟡 Revenue has been broadly flat over 3 years (-1.2% a year).

🔴 EBITDA has shrunk at 3.3% a year over 3 years.

🔴 EBITDA Margin has fallen from 20.6% to 19.3% over 3 years (-1.3 pts).

🔴 PAT (Net Profit) has shrunk at 18.6% a year over 3 years.

🔴 EPS has shrunk at 20.2% a year over 3 years.

🔴 ROE has fallen from 12.0% to 5.5% over 3 years (-6.4 pts).

🔴 ROCE has fallen from 13.7% to 9.9% over 3 years (-3.7 pts).

🟡 Total Debt has been broadly flat over 3 years (-0.5% a year).

🟡 Free Cash Flow has been broadly flat over 3 years (0.4% a year).

Balance Sheet & Cash Flow — FY2026

Total Assets

₹95,205 Cr

Total Liabilities

₹53,936 Cr

Cash & Equivalents

₹5,975 Cr

Operating Cash Flow

₹7,855 Cr

Capex

-₹2,406 Cr

Shareholding (proxy)

Institutional Holding

42.1%

Insider Holding

33.7%

Corporate Actions

Next Earnings

05 Nov 2026

Dividend Rate

₹6

Ex-Dividend Date

17 Jul 2026

Analyst Consensus

Recommendations

12 Buy · 4 Hold · 1 Sell

Target Price (Mean)

₹704.41

+31.8% vs CMP

Target Range

₹558 – ₹830

Peer Comparison

Company	P/E	ROE
TATA STEEL LIMITED	19.8x	10.8%
JSW STEEL LIMITED	12.0x	24.7%
ULTRATECH CEMENT LIMITED	37.6x	11.1%
ASIAN PAINTS LIMITED	46.9x	22.3%

Recent News

3 mixed1 negative2 general

UPL Outlook for the Week

Equitypandit, 09 Oct

UPL plunges 7% as Q1 results disappoint investors; analysts mixed on stock

Business Standard, 04 AugAnalyst view

🟡Mixed / dependsBroker commentary — an opinion about the price rather than new information about the business.

UPL Forecast — Price Target — Prediction for 2027

TradingView, 25 JunAnalyst view

🟡Mixed / dependsBroker commentary — an opinion about the price rather than new information about the business.

Q1 results impact: UPL shares fall 6% as Jefferies cuts target price on below-estimate PAT

Moneycontrol.com, 04 AugAnalyst view

🔴Potentially negativeAn analyst opinion changing, which moves the price without changing the business.

UPL Share Price at 52-Week Low: Fundamentals and Sector

Univest, 07 Oct

UPL Share Price Falls 13% In Stock Market Today After Restructuring Plan Announcement

Samco, 23 FebPrice move

🟡Mixed / dependsA price move rather than a change in the business. If the figures on this page have not moved, the fall is either an opportunity or news they have yet to catch up with.

Watch Items

Cross-check against the company's latest quarterly filing / investor presentation before acting.

DalalBaazaar Thesis

MiddlingFinancial Health · Valuation · Risk

WeakBusiness Quality · Growth · Profitability

Points for each in the Score ↑

Weak on the fundamentals

Poor scores on business quality without a price low enough to compensate. There is no obvious argument for owning this over a stronger company at a similar valuation. 1 high-severity red flag sits above this conclusion and should be read first.

2 of 5 tripwires tripped — Debt / EBITDA stays below 2x; Interest cover stays above 3x · see Key things to watch ↑