VRL Logistics Limited

Industrials — Trucking · NSE

₹281.85−₹0.15 (−0.05%)

DalalBaazaar Score

53 / 100

🟡 Moderate

Verdict

NEUTRAL

Risk

High

Driven by moderate debt load, short-term liabilities exceed short-term assets, micro-cap size, which brings thin liquidity.

In simple words: Strong business and financial position, with both sales and profits growing well. Short-term liquidity is the main factor to watch.

Decision support, not a buy or sell call.

As of 18 Oct 2026, 6:51 pm

Understanding the Business

Company site ↗

The 60-second version of VRL Logistics Limited — what it does, how it earns, and who it competes with, before any of the numbers below.

What does this company do?

VRL Logistics Limited operates as a logistics and transport company in India. The company offers services, such as truckload and full truck load, door-to door FTL service, door collection and door delivery; and provides courier services for time sensitive documents and packages.

IndustryTrucking

SectorIndustrials

Employees21,511

Annual revenue₹3,204 Cr

How does it make money?

Turns over ₹3,204 Cr a year. Of every ₹100 of sales, about ₹7 reaches shareholders as profit, with ₹21 left at the operating level before interest, tax and depreciation. Each of its 21,511 employees supports ₹14.9 lakh of revenue a year, the signature of a people-led business.

Revenue / employee₹14.9 lakh

Who are its competitors?

The closest listed comparisons in its industry are LARSEN & TOUBRO LTD., SIEMENS LTD, ABB INDIA LIMITED. These are the companies its valuation and returns are measured against elsewhere in this report.

Compared side by side in Peers ↓

What is its competitive advantage?Some evidence

ROCE of 18.8% is above what capital typically costs, which suggests some pricing power, though not yet the sustained, wide gap that marks a durable advantage.

Peer median ROE15.2%

What is the outlook?

6 analysts covering the stock expect revenue to grow about 8.0% and earnings to grow about 3.9% in the year to 2028. These are estimates by people who follow the company, not a forecast for the wider industry.

Est. revenue growth+8.0%

Est. earnings growth+3.9%

Analysts6

What has been driving growth?

Profit has moved mainly because margins changed, not because the business sold much more. Over 3 years revenue moved +22% while net margin moved -40% relative to itself. What this cannot tell you is which products, customers or geographies did the work — that lives in the segment disclosures of the annual report.

Revenue effect+22%

Margin effect-40%

DalalBaazaar Score

53/ 100

Moderate

Weighted across six categories. Every point is explained below.

✗ Revenue CAGR of only 6.8% — barely ahead of inflation
✗ Profit has declined at 9.8% a year
✗ Profit is compounding slower than revenue — margins are being squeezed as the business grows

Quality vs. Valuation

Company Quality

50/ 100

Average

How good the business is, ignoring the share price entirely.

Valuation

75/ 100

Cheap

What you are being asked to pay, ignoring how good the business is.

A reasonable business at a reasonable price — neither the quality nor the valuation stands out in either direction.

Historical Valuation

Current P/E

18.5x

3Y Median

25.3x

40 monthly readings · mean 30.4x · range 15.0x–61.1x

Sector Median

88.8x

median of 3 sector peers

🟢Current valuation is approximately 27% below its 3y median of 25.3x. Cheaper than its own history, which is worth a reason too: the market may be pricing in something the backward-looking numbers do not show.

🟢Against its sector it trades 79% below the peer median of 88.8x.

vs. its own history

Cheap

25.3x median over 40 months · -27%

vs. sector peers

Cheap

88.8x median of 3 peers · -79%

vs. generic bands

Fair

15x–35x

EV/EBITDA

9.0x

PEG

—

What's Good / What's Bad

🟢 What's Going Well4

Margins are improving
EBITDA margin is up from 16.3% to 21.0% over 3 years.
Cash flow has turned positive
Free cash flow moved from negative to positive over 3 years.
Return on capital is rising
ROCE has improved from 16.2% to 18.8%.
Consistently profitable
Profitable in every one of the last 4 reported years.

🔴 What Needs Attention1

Return on equity is falling
ROE has dropped from 33.1% to 20.7% — each rupee of shareholder capital earns less than it did.

Red Flags

4 items require attention · 1 high · 3 watch

🔴Debt has risen sharplyFinancial
Total debt is up 60% over 3 years, from ₹720 Cr to ₹1,154 Cr.
🟡Profit is decliningFinancial
Net profit is down 27% over 3 years.
🟡Shareholders have been dilutedOwnership
Shares outstanding are up 98% over 3 years — each existing share owns a smaller slice of the company.
🟡Short-term liquidity is tightFinancial
Current ratio of 0.49 — near-term obligations exceed near-term assets.

Investment Thesis

🟢 Bull CaseWhat could make this work?

Capital compounds at a high rate
ROCE of 18.8% means each rupee reinvested earns well above what capital costs. If the company can keep deploying at this rate, growth creates value rather than just consuming cash.
Margin expansion has further to run
EBITDA margin has risen from 16.3% to 21.0%. If that holds, profit compounds faster than sales and today's multiple looks cheaper in hindsight than it does now.
Priced below its own history
The stock trades 27% below its own median multiple. If the business performs as it has and simply re-rates back to normal, that gap is return on its own.
Cheaper than its peers
It trades 79% below the sector median. Either the market sees a problem the numbers do not show, or the discount closes.
Earnings have proved durable
Profitable in every one of the last 4 reported years. Consistency lowers the risk that any single bad year is structural rather than cyclical.

🔴 Bear CaseWhat could go wrong?

Growth barely outpaces inflation
Revenue compounding at 6.8% a year is close to the rate prices rise, so the business is gaining little ground in real terms. That leaves the share price dependent on a re-rating rather than on earnings growth.
Returns on shareholder capital are falling
ROE has dropped from 33.1% to 20.7%. Each rupee of equity earns less than it did, so profit growth increasingly depends on raising more capital rather than on the existing base working harder.
Earnings are hard to forecast
Profit has swung sharply from year to year, so any single year — good or bad — is a weak guide to the next. Cyclical earnings deserve lower multiples for that reason.
Size brings its own risk
Micro Cap businesses are thinly traded, so exits are harder in a falling market and single events move the price more than they would for a larger company.

🟡 Key Things to WatchMeasurable tripwires, set against where this company stands today

1EBITDA margin holds above 19%✓ 21.0%
Two points below today's level — enough room for noise, tight enough to catch real compression.
2Revenue growth stays above 5% a year✓ 6.8% CAGR
Latest reported year was 18.1%. The bar is set below the established compounding rate, so ordinary variation does not trip it.
3Free cash flow remains positive✓ ₹356 Cr
Profit that never becomes cash eventually stops being profit.
4Debt / EBITDA stays below 2x✓ 1.7x
The ratio lenders write covenants against; it survives a small or negative equity base, unlike Debt/Equity.
5ROCE stays above 16%✓ 18.8%
Falling returns on capital are usually competition arriving, and show up here before they reach the margin.

Investment Checklist

8 / 12 checks passed

✓ Strong return on equity (ROE ≥ 15%)
✓ Strong return on capital employed (ROCE ≥ 15%)
✗ Healthy net margin (≥ 10%)
✓ Generates positive free cash flow
✗ Manageable leverage (Debt/Equity < 1.0)
✗ Adequate short-term liquidity (Current Ratio ≥ 1.0)
✓ Revenue growing year-over-year
✓ Profit growing year-over-year
✓ Not trading at an extreme valuation (P/E < 40x)
✓ Not buying right at the 52-week high
✓ Analyst consensus isn't majority-sell
✗ Short-term technical trend isn't bearish

Price history

Quick Metrics

6 good · 5 neutral · 0 weak

Market Cap

₹4,931 Cr

Micro Cap

Smaller company — thin liquidity and deep drawdowns are normal here

P/E (Trailing)

18.5x

Fair

Fairly valued against the generic band

P/B Ratio

4.32x

Fair

Moderate premium to the company's book value

EPS (TTM)

₹15.27

Profitable

Profitable on a per-share basis

ROE

20.7%

Strong

Strong capital efficiency

ROCE

18.8%

Strong

Earns comfortably above its likely cost of capital

Debt/Equity

1.01x

Moderate

Moderate leverage

Revenue Growth (YoY)

18.1%

Healthy

Healthy top-line growth

Profit Growth (YoY)

60.8%

Healthy

Profits growing at a healthy clip

Dividend Yield

1.77%

Modest

Small cash return — most of the return has to come from the price

Free Cash Flow

₹356 Cr

Cash generative

Generates cash even after funding its capex

More Metrics

P/E (Forward)

15.0x

Improving

Below the trailing multiple — the street expects earnings to grow into the price

Operating Margin

14.1%

Average

Average margins

Net Margin

7.9%

Average

Average bottom-line conversion

Current Ratio

0.49

Tight

Tight short-term liquidity

Beta (vs Nifty)

0.11

Defensive

Steadier than the market

52W Range Position

67%

Mid-range

Technical Snapshot

SMA 20 / SMA 50

287.2 / 290.7

Bearish alignment (short < long)

Price vs SMA 200

Above

Long-term uptrend

RSI (14)

34.8

Neutral momentum

Financial Trend (4-Year)

Metric	FY23	FY24	FY25	FY26	3Y CAGR
Revenue	₹2,628 Cr	₹2,871 Cr	₹3,143 Cr	₹3,204 Cr	+6.8%
EBITDA	₹429 Cr	₹412 Cr	₹587 Cr	₹672 Cr	+16.1%
EBITDA Margin	16.3%	14.4%	18.7%	21.0%	—
PAT (Net Profit)	₹323 Cr	₹89 Cr	₹183 Cr	₹237 Cr	-9.8%
EPS	₹18.29	₹5.08	₹10.46	₹13.54	-9.5%
ROE	33.1%	9.4%	16.9%	20.7%	—
ROCE	16.2%	10.9%	15.7%	18.8%	—
Total Debt	₹720 Cr	₹1,036 Cr	₹1,228 Cr	₹1,154 Cr	+17.0%
Free Cash Flow	-₹94 Cr	₹139 Cr	₹106 Cr	₹356 Cr	—

🟢 Revenue has grown at 6.8% a year over 3 years.

🟢 EBITDA has grown at 16.1% a year over 3 years.

🟢 EBITDA Margin has risen from 16.3% to 21.0% over 3 years (+4.7 pts).

🔴 PAT (Net Profit) has shrunk at 9.8% a year over 3 years.

🔴 EPS has shrunk at 9.5% a year over 3 years.

🔴 ROE has fallen from 33.1% to 20.7% over 3 years (-12.4 pts).

🟢 ROCE has risen from 16.2% to 18.8% over 3 years (+2.6 pts).

🔴 Total Debt has grown at 17.0% a year over 3 years.

🟢 Free Cash Flow has turned positive, from -₹94 Cr to ₹356 Cr.

Balance Sheet & Cash Flow — FY2026

Total Assets

₹2,605 Cr

Total Liabilities

₹1,463 Cr

Cash & Equivalents

₹15 Cr

Operating Cash Flow

₹654 Cr

Capex

-₹299 Cr

Shareholding (proxy)

Institutional Holding

23.1%

Insider Holding

60.2%

Corporate Actions

Dividend Rate

₹5

Ex-Dividend Date

13 Feb 2026

Analyst Consensus

Recommendations

6 Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell

Target Price (Mean)

₹379.17

+34.5% vs CMP

Target Range

₹310 – ₹460

Peer Comparison

Company	P/E	ROE
LARSEN & TOUBRO LTD.	30.1x	15.2%
SIEMENS LTD	88.8x	10.5%
ABB INDIA LIMITED	92.6x	19.1%

Recent News

4 positive2 mixed

VRL Logistics (BSE:539118) Stock Forecast & Analyst Predictions

Simply Wall Street, 14 OctAnalyst view

🟡Mixed / dependsBroker commentary — an opinion about the price rather than new information about the business.

VRL Logistics Board To Consider Q1 Results And Share Buyback On August 4

Sahi, 27 JulCapital return

🟢Potentially positiveCash or shares returned to holders. A buyback is only good value if the shares were cheap when bought.

VRL Logistics posts record Q1FY27 profit, approves ₹2,800 cr buyback

scanx.trade, 04 AugCapital return

🟢Potentially positiveCash or shares returned to holders. A buyback is only good value if the shares were cheap when bought.

VRL Logistics Q1: Net Profit Surges 61%; Board Approves Buyback — Check Details

NDTV Profit, 04 AugCapital return

🟢Potentially positiveCash or shares returned to holders. A buyback is only good value if the shares were cheap when bought.

Why Is VRL Logistics Share Price Falling Key Reasons 2026?

Univest, 04 MayPrice move

🟡Mixed / dependsA price move rather than a change in the business. If the figures on this page have not moved, the fall is either an opportunity or news they have yet to catch up with.

VRL Logistics Q1 results: Profit jumps 61%; board approves ₹280 crore buyback

CNBC TV18, 04 AugCapital return

🟢Potentially positiveCash or shares returned to holders. A buyback is only good value if the shares were cheap when bought.

Watch Items

Cross-check against the company's latest quarterly filing / investor presentation before acting.

DalalBaazaar Thesis

StrongBusiness Quality · Valuation

MiddlingFinancial Health · Profitability

WeakGrowth · Risk

Points for each in the Score ↑

Unremarkable in both directions

A reasonable business at a reasonable price. Nothing here is alarming and nothing is compelling, which usually means the decision rests on things this data cannot see — the industry's direction, management's intent, and what else is available to you. 1 high-severity red flag sits above this conclusion and should be read first.

All 5 tripwires holding · see Key things to watch ↑